Win Place and Show wagers

[Lefty]

Originally Posted by cdax

On occasion I will play a Win/Insurance wager I stumbled across online somewhere. If the horse i like is at least 5-1 (preferably higher) I would wager $2 win, $4 place and $12 to show. If the selection only shows and pays at least $3 you break even.

That's one selection. Bu how does i work out over hundreds? Prob. not so well.
Loved the Doc. Bu never believed in his Place, Show betting. I kept records, it
never worked for me. I suggest you keep records too.
Chuck

[rdiam]

As I stated in a previous post in this thread, if you want to "back-up" your "long shot" in the place pool, you are much better off putting it underneath in exactas than betting place and show. If you want a "mechanical" approach, put the top 2-3 tote favorites on top of your longshot. Even better if you have handicapped the race and have several win contenders to put on top.

When the top 2-3 favorites win, the place (and show) payoffs get crushed, made worse by breakage. Sartin either did not understand or ignored the math of place and show betting. For more details, see "Beat the Racetrack" by William Ziemba.

Richard

[Lefty]

rdiam, I agree. Exacta as a place bet's a good strategy...

[OhNoItsDoug]

I used to play that same $2 win, $4 place, and $12 show win insurance wager. I did have some good success with it. After a while I changed it to a 1-3-6 ratio ($2 win, $6 place, $12 show). It made the total wager (at $2 for win) $20, instead of $18. I remember a breeder's cup day I only wagered 3 win insurance wagers @ $5 win, $15 place, $30 show. 2 selections won, and one showed. I made a few hundred dollars profit, and was extremely happy.


I will say, I find wagering on 2 horses to win a lot easier to place the wager, as I like to wait as long as possible to place my wagers. It is also a lot easier to keep records.


-Doug

[mick]

Originally Posted by rdiam

As I stated in a previous post in this thread, if you want to "back-up" your "long shot" in the place pool, you are much better off putting it underneath in exactas than betting place and show. If you want a "mechanical" approach, put the top 2-3 tote favorites on top of your longshot. Even better if you have handicapped the race and have several win contenders to put on top.

When the top 2-3 favorites win, the place (and show) payoffs get crushed, made worse by breakage. Sartin either did not understand or ignored the math of place and show betting. For more details, see "Beat the Racetrack" by William Ziemba.

Richard

In 1984, when Bill Ziemba published "Beat the Racetrack," a knowledgeable bettor could find "inefficiencies" in the Place and Show pools and exploit them. Today we have betting syndicates, unfortunately, and they have read Dr. Ziemba's book. Now you would be hard pressed to find an inefficiency in any Place or Show pool at any track in North America.

Here's a simple example from today's first race at Finger Lakes in three screenshots from Amwager's (excellent) betting interface. The first is with 20 MTP. The second is at Post Time. Note how the percentages in the Place and Show pools have climbed almost to the percentage in the Win pool. (My rule of thumb is a difference of 10% or more as an indication of inefficiency. The syndicates' computers have made the inefficiencies disappear.) And the third is of the results of the race and the paltry payoffs in the Place and Show pools. Also please note that if a bettor had played an exacta wheel with the field under the winning favorite for $8, he would have gotten back $27. That's a lot more than the Place and Show payoffs.

[Mitch44]

Yet another Mick who beat the game, as usual once it gets into the public domain it becomes a tough hurtle to overcome. Zimba was beating racing way back before writing his book in 1984.He authored 40 books which is an amazing feat in itself.

Your right Mick that its extremely hard today with the dumping of large sums of money coming into the pools late from simulcasting, the odds actually change as the horse's race around the track making it impossible to know where they'll settle. Ditto for Benter's approach. Sometimes I need a bib as I salivate at my top choice being 20-1 in the morning line, only to see it win and pay a pittance of that 20-1. It helps to sometimes anticipate what the public might do as far as betting and determining odds.

Every time the game gets beaten the house changes the rules and stays alive to fight another day. Examples: card counting in Blackjack add several more decks to change the odds, class in horseracing, the invention of State Bred races to destroy the class factor and paying below the top 3 horses. Speed, consistency and pace diluted by the over publication to the masses of such. Also races and conditions for horses that couldn't even run "around a dog dish let alone a racetrack." (Reverend Bert Mayne)

They also know that most gamblers beat themselves, Sartin " the bane of all handicappers is inconsistency of procedures." And lack of discipline is way up there. As in any sport or profession few have the whole package to compete at a professional level. Many that are able to achieve fall rapidly due to vices, poor living standards and oh yes association with losers, we become a product of our environment.

Mitch44

[tom]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

Sartin was quoted often to say, if the win odds are 9/2 or better, a place bet is a good move. I would DOUBLE the wager to place myself in that situation.

For many years now, I will bet 1 unit win and 3 units place if I get 9-2 or better.
My records show it is better than win only on those horses.

[mick]

Originally Posted by stormbringer

Does anyone know of a book or a paper on a GOOD on WPS strategy?

Thanks

Stormbringer,

I didn't answer your question and upon re-reading my post, it seems somewhat abrupt. I apologize.

Adding to responses by rdiam and others, I would recommend Dick Mitchell's "Commonsense Betting." It was written before the syndicates so you have to keep that in mind, but he has a chapter on Place and Show betting. If you like math, you'll love this book.

[MJS6916]

Originally Posted by tom

For many years now, I will bet 1 unit win and 3 units place if I get 9-2 or better.
My records show it is better than win only on those horses.

Place betting as a means to profit, or bankroll and personal sanity preservation, is still alive and well in 2022.

Mike

[DanBoals]

Was going thru some old follow ups and found that issue #4 has a couple articles on place and show betting if you are still interested.

Big thanks to Ted for keeping these wonderful resources online for people.

Dan