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Old 12-10-2011, 07:37 AM   #1
RichieP
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Mountaineer - Sunday - "E" Proj Pace

Here is Sunday night's 7th at the Mountain.

Opening race withy guidelines from this thread:
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7978

Projected pace 1st call and 2nd call in FIFTHS of a second (RDSS shows tenths):
#8 - High Canadian - 22.3 - 45.3

Anyone looking to work the race with "Hat" 5 Step Approach grab it here please:
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5715

Tandem races will be shown on middle tab.

The very best of luck/skill to all those who jump in and I look forward to seeing your individual workups of this race.
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Last edited by RichieP; 12-10-2011 at 07:40 AM.
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Old 12-10-2011, 07:42 AM   #2
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Old 12-10-2011, 10:49 AM   #3
mikesal57
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Hi Rich..

Yes..the 8 has the projected race and with horses 3 & 4 as speed also ..I see this race as OTE...

#1...in form and has shown good races vs this pace...in
#2...slow vs this pace...out
#5...bad last ,off 142 days ...out
#6...3 for 45 ..noting I can see here...out
#7...nothing vs this pace...out

Well we are left with #1 and I'm using the #3 too
no good odds here and most likely be a pass for me

mike
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Old 12-10-2011, 11:30 AM   #4
SilentRun
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Mnr r7

Using RDSS I like the 3 & 8 for win and 8-3-1 exacta box

As Mike mentioned the odds will probably not justify a play but IMO the 3 and 8 are the top 2 contenders.
Looking at the adjusted times the 3 & 8 are really sharp over F1, F2 & FT. looks like a speed dual to me
The E/L graph shows #1 horse as the lone late runner and as I see it has a shot at hitting the board.

Ernie
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Old 12-10-2011, 11:31 AM   #5
PeteC
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Hey Rich, thanks for putting this up and let’s see if we can get the winner…

Mike, I see the race really similar to you…
I used the 8 as the projected pace horse, with a mid 22, mid 45 pace. The 3 and 4 have won on the lead or fighting for the lead and can match the pace of the 8. Like Mike, I look for the race to run OTE.
I really like the 1 horse here. Comes off of a win routing, and Line 6 was a close second here in the mud against today’s pace. Also has finished second against a faster pace in line 10 at PID. #5 was a little tricky to me, but I focused in on the lines from MNR where it faced 46 or so half miles and decided to throw it out.

I’ll take the 1 to win.
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Old 12-11-2011, 01:20 PM   #6
Seven Furlongs
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I'd exacta box the 1,3 and 5. And I agree with PeteC and mikesal57, in that I also like the 1 horse.
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Old 12-12-2011, 01:06 AM   #7
For The Lead
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Weekly Review

Here we go with my weekly review of the matcher’s race.

This is a claiming race for horse that have never won 4 races, “NW4L”.
The #5 horse hasn’t raced in 145 days so that horse will be eliminated.
The rest of the field have all raced in the last 90 days and all have a ML less than 20/1, so they are all in for review.

#1 – NO LINE, this horse has raced 4 times in the last 86 days but unfortunately the last 3 races were all routes and the 4th race back was a dismal sprint race. Even though the horse won its’ 3rd lifetime race last out, the connections made a mistake, that race was for “non-winners of a race other than maiden or claiming” (NW1X) and this horse could have been in that same condition down the road even if it had 10 wins, now it can’t. In addition, it can no longer race against “non winners of 3 lifetime” (NW3L), it has now lost that condition. Had this horses connections done it right, the horse could have beat NW3L (an easier condition than NW1X) and then beat NW4L and then at some point still be eligible for Allowance NW1X.
#2 – LAST LINE, the last race was 20 days ago vs. Allowance NW1X and fortunately, it didn’t win it or it would not be eligible for this race today. This horse has met better competition than the rest of the horses in this field, but it seems it may have been injured and was off for almost 7 months. When it came back to the races it was dropped in for $5,000 NW3L and was promptly claimed. I think that was a gamble on the part of the old owner and that owner lost! That race could set this horse up for a lot of “starter allowance” races down the road should the new owners take that path.
#3 – LINE 2, last race was 47 days ago and line 2 was just 64 days ago. I have excused the last race because it was against “Allowance non-winner of 3 races other than maiden, claiming, etc.”, a much more difficult race than today’s race. This horse started its’ career very nice with a win vs. MSW horses, then quickly ran off wins vs. Allowance NW2L and Allowance NW3L. Its’ race 2 back was against NW4L like today, but in Allowance company whereas today it is in vs. claimers.
#4 – LINE 2, this is probably the cheapest horse in the race and its’ lat line is bad, but after winning three consecutive races, I’ll just throw the last line out, use the line 2 back and see how it shows vs. the other contenders.
#5 – ELIMINATED
#6 – NO LINE, last race was a route and prior races in the last 90 days were all dismal
#7 – LAST LINE, just 47 days ago it was a win vs. “state bred” horses. We’ll see how it fares vs. “open” company today, but I don’t expect much.
#8 – LAST LINE, this is the horse the race is about, the horse that was on the lead with the fastest times (fractions) last time out. Well, then I guess the last line is appropriate. If the horse was on the lead at the first two calls in the fastest times, then that is the horse every other horse has to match up against. That race was 64 days ago so it falls within the last 90 days. It was also against higher value claiming horses in an “open” race rather than a “condition” race.

As you will see, ENERGY missed this race based on the lines used.
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Old 12-12-2011, 01:26 AM   #8
SilentRun
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Hello FTL,

Your evaluation, is as usual, very thorough, and interesting.
It appears to me that the last 2 screen shots indicate that the #3 and #8 horse
can be considered contenders.
Why not post your next evaluation prior to the race rather than after.

Ernie
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Old 12-12-2011, 10:25 AM   #9
For The Lead
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SilentRun View Post
Hello FTL,

Your evaluation, is as usual, very thorough, and interesting.
It appears to me that the last 2 screen shots indicate that the #3 and #8 horse
can be considered contenders.
Why not post your next evaluation prior to the race rather than after.

Ernie
Actually, the horses that are assigned a line are the “contenders”. In ENERGY, screen 3 indicates how ENERGY “sees” the race based on the horses and lines entered. In this case, ENERGY “suggests” that the race should run “early”, therefore, the two horses ranked #1 and #2 under the EP column would be ENERGY’s choices to win the race. In this case, those horses would be the #3 and #8. I have been doing this for several weeks now and took it for granted that readers understand the ENERGY readouts. I’m sorry, I should have noted the horses ENERGY suggested as I have in the past for those who may not yet understand.

Thank you for your compliment.

As to the “when” of my posting, I don’t think it really matters. I am just reviewing the race and making specific points about how I reach the “contenders” to which I assign lines. These points would be the same before or after the race. As an example, I eliminate horses with a ML=>20/1. This would be the same before or after the race. I eliminate horses that have not had a race in the last 90 days. This would be the same before or after the race. I do not give a line to a horse that does not have a “good” race at today’s comparable distance and similar surface in the last 90 days. This would be the same before or after the race. I use the “most recent” good race at a similar distance and surface. These would be races where the horse ran 1st, 2nd, 3rd or showed good early speed at the first and/or second calls and seldom do I go back more than 2 lines. (there are circumstances that may cause me to go back further, but that is very seldom and I don’t like doing it) Keep in mind there has to be a “valid” reason to go back one line. This would be the same before or after the race.

I think if you reviewed my reviews, you will find “consistency” in how I go about horse and line selection and this is another point I am making by doing these reviews. Ted has said on many, many occasions that one should not be attempting to handicap “this race”, but they should be following a consistent procedure in each and every race. Some races you will win and some races you will lose. There is no procedure that will put you on the winner of every race you handicap. Today’s matcher’s race is an example. ENERGY did not locate the winner of the race based on the horses and lines I used, however, the winner was among the contenders. But ENERGY has identified the winner in several of the other races I reviewed. Obviously I am not attempting to pick the winner after the race. If that was my goal, I would have “manipulated” lines that would have shown ENERGY indentified the winner in today’s race. It didn’t. I just follow the same consistent approach every week and let the chips fall where they may.

I had a purpose in mind when I started this and that purpose was to illustrate how well using the guidelines right out of the Paceline Manual in the library do even today. You can find them on pages 17, 18 and 19 and there are examples there that follow as well. These guidelines are the ones I learned from many, many years ago and I find they still work very well. They offer a consistent approach that can be used in every race you handicap. Just one note here, the idea of eliminating horses that have not run in the last 90 days and/or horses with a ML=>20/1 are two things I have added based on the information I have gathered in my database of the last 14+ years.

When I decided to do this, I wanted to use something that the members would be somewhat familiar with rather than just write words. I don’t use RDSS or ENERGY or any other commercial software in my own handicapping, but I do have ENERGY, KGEN, THOROMATION among others from years ago, so I decided to use ENERGY as a means of illustrating how the contender selection and line selection fare.

The "specific" comments I may make about each horse are all things that are right there in the PP's for all to see.

You should also understand that I live in Las Vegas and I am sitting in one race book or another every day watching the tracks that I favor most. Many times these matcher races are not at tracks I am watching, so the review I post is put off until after the races are over for me. Doing this once a week is of no particular burden for me so I don’t mind doing it. If what I show in my reviews are of any help to any one, that is good enough for me. I hope you, as well as others, enjoy reading the reviews I post and find any information in them useful.
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Old 12-12-2011, 02:51 PM   #10
lone speed
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I have enjoyed reading and studying FTL's weekly approach to the weekly matchup at hand . I do not mind that his posts are before or after the race has ran. For me, it is anout how he approach his paceline selection process which I value most. One must have a systematic approach in any endeavor. A close acquaintance once told me that " System + Discipline = Ca$h flow". Personally, I tend to be more flexible in my own pace line selection process. Sometimes, this put me on an obvious non-contender after the fact.
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