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Old 08-27-2006, 09:52 PM   #21
admin
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Payoff

I will take the $49.00 for the Trifecta
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Old 08-27-2006, 10:54 PM   #22
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My post was not about you or your lines, said something about "how to" "way to go" for next time. we all disect the races later by moving lines around, at least I do. What I ment was reading the racing form, nothing to do with you re-ordering lines. Noting the trap we all have been in wearing blinders and just trusting the lines we pick to be the magic pill. So I was not picking on what your lines at all, but just saying that software will not do it all from lines every time. There are many a race that will not be picked by software but will be picked by the old way of reading the form.
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Old 08-28-2006, 12:00 AM   #23
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Bill,I just want to let you know there are by far more of us who appreciated that you took the time to put up that race in the first place.Jeff
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Old 08-28-2006, 12:09 AM   #24
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Thanks Jeff

I'm glad that I could help out
I don't mind doing the work since it might help
out a friend or two

GS
Bill V
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Old 02-05-2007, 11:12 PM   #25
racer100
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Thumbs up

Quote:
Originally Posted by admin View Post
This is my step by step look how I did this
weeks Friday night race of the week 8/25 race 7 Del Mar
I would like to say that there are no 100% rules
with the methodology.,Only guidelines and lately as per Doc's
suggestion ,Looking at a little more than just numbers
a little bit of intuition really helps

The race was 11 furlongs for Fillies and Mares 3 and Up
Many of the horses never ran any race close to this distance
I based much of my feeling on horse # 7 which won at 10
furlongs two races back with a raw final time of 200.2
Spec adjusted this to 211.1. I decided to use 10 furlongs
as the distance of the race.

The first step I did was the APV - Class Ratings
I posted this in the race of the week area I will repeat them here
I left out horse 8 but it was very weak 21.8% and 0.39
I added my notes to each horse they were vital in this race
Hello everyone,
I am new to this forum and a recent user of Spec 1.60 but I catch up fast. Bill, thanks for doing such diligent work on posting the analysis for this race. It is something we can all learn from. It seems to me that the key to your analysis here is the initial APV class rating. Can you elaborate in few words the rules that you use in arriving at this class rating under Spec 1.60? Is this a separate program that is available? or was it done by hand by you? Thanks in advance for your help.
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Old 02-06-2007, 01:45 AM   #26
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Apv Cr

Hi Racer100

I use an old Sartin hand entry program called EXDC
Most of the older programs,as far as I can tell
had this same feature to calculate the APV and Class ratings

I use this program
Let me show you how I used it for a horse using Spec160 and EXDC
This horse won on Saturday. I listed it as
APV. 101.0
CR. 0.70

My attachment will map out were I look for the information
I hand enter into EXDC

I use these numbers a guide to the ability of a horse
against the others in the race not as a wagering factor
what I mean is
Superstone has an APV of 101.0% to me this means in its
most current races Its been running at this level - 100% is equal

But Its Class Rating is only 0.70
This tells me that its not doing that well in those races.
This raised a red flag for me as ,for me usually my winners
rate over .90 in CR
I probably don't want to give this horse too
much help. I used its last line with its highest
ever speed rating of 84 But if it were line 3 I would use
its last line unless it had an excuse

Here is my mapped out attachment
any questions are welcome I will try to explian my method
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Old 02-06-2007, 06:17 AM   #27
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Bill,Nice job on that,STAY WARM.Jeff
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Old 02-06-2007, 02:00 PM   #28
racer100
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Wink EXDC or Thoromation

Bill, thanks for the very clear depiction on your selection process. I googled EXDC and found that it was posted as a zip file along with Thoromation but the link did not work anymore. Would you be kind enough to zip it up and post it here for download or point me somewhere where I can pick it up?
As a contribution to this board I found something very interesting that improves my selection win %. DRF recently introduced as a beta the Moss Pace Figures in addition to the Beyer numbers. I always found Beyers figures to be useless, but I gave a shot to the Moss Pace Figures which I use to select the best PP for either Spec 1.60 or Speed Handicapper 5.0 (Charles Carroll). Selecting the best pace line to use turned things around for me from hitting 30% wins (win horse) to about 75%. So far I have done only about 40 recent races at many tracks since the Moss Pace figures have recently been available but to me this looks impressive. I wonder if it will be consistent or will drop to 30% again. I strongly believe though that the selection of the most appropriate PP to represent the horse is crucial. It appears to me that selecting the PP by the best pace line is the way to go so far. Using Speed Handicapper 5.0 that gives the Carroll speed figures seems to work really well on the selected PP by Moss Pace to pick the win horse. However the trifecta is not necessarily in the top 5. Selector 1.60 picks less winners but its trifecta is in the top 5 most of the time with the Moss paceline selection. Anyway just food for thought...please post your impressions on how we can improve on this. Perhaps I should start a new thread on this. Thanks for your help.

Quote:
Originally Posted by admin View Post
Hi Racer100

I use an old Sartin hand entry program called EXDC
Most of the older programs,as far as I can tell
had this same feature to calculate the APV and Class ratings

I use this program
Let me show you how I used it for a horse using Spec160 and EXDC
This horse won on Saturday. I listed it as
APV. 101.0
CR. 0.70

My attachment will map out were I look for the information
I hand enter into EXDC

I use these numbers a guide to the ability of a horse
against the others in the race not as a wagering factor
what I mean is
Superstone has an APV of 101.0% to me this means in its
most current races Its been running at this level - 100% is equal

But Its Class Rating is only 0.70
This tells me that its not doing that well in those races.
This raised a red flag for me as ,for me usually my winners
rate over .90 in CR
I probably don't want to give this horse too
much help. I used its last line with its highest
ever speed rating of 84 But if it were line 3 I would use
its last line unless it had an excuse

Here is my mapped out attachment
any questions are welcome I will try to explian my method
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Old 02-06-2007, 05:32 PM   #29
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Racer100

I can't give out programs
I have put back one of our forums called Energy

lots of real nice guys used to post in there
I bet somebody can help you out

Bill

P.S

shoeless. Its so cold out there. everytime I get out of the truck
and my hands touch that frozen handtruck
and cold boxes I just think about Del Mar
Now I really miss it ...
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