Interesting line produces

[Latekick]

Capture.PNG



Moose i sure did. Its days like today that makes you realize that all the hard work pays off. Ive been studying this stuff to the core the past few months and im finally feeling like its paying off.

[dirty moose]

Congrats!

[Latekick]

Moose or really anyone here that's even interested on my rambling about MNR tonight, but what do you think about this? LONE speed to take them all the way or what? Im thinking this race is going to either be a complete BLOWOUT for that lone speed horse, OR its any of the other 3 horses i have in the readout. Ill pass this race because of my uncertainty of the lone speed horse. If he wins, he ll win, if he loses, i think its any of the other 3 horses that will be there

[dirty moose]

LK so how do you post the screen shots? lol I haven't figured that out yet...

[Latekick]

Type in Screen shots in the search tool bar above and go to the bottom of the 1st page. Theres a post down there that i think is called Posting screenshiots, and Ted explains exactly how to do it

[Lt1]

Very nice piece of handicapping Latekick. It also should be noted that the prior 2 6f races today were won by horses ranked 1 and 2 lp.

[Latekick]

Thanks Tim.
Yes I did notice that and I have it noted.
Today was an all around good day.
Good luck tomorrow Tim

[Because I Can Jim]

Latekick,

Curious as to why you did not include the #5 horse - Good Family - in the 8th race?

Jim
Any Questions. Any Time.

[Latekick]

Jim, when I went back and studied the card again I noticed that this was just a bad judgment call for me. I HAD this horse on my readouts, AT FIRST, but after re looking the lines I noticed the line 3 back I had selected, I didn't think he rana very competitive race, so I made the call not to use a line and it was clearly the wrong call, but that happens.
When I enetered him back in my readouts, he went straight to the op of the field and was ranked well everywhere he needs to be to win a race at this distance at MNR

[Because I Can Jim]

Latekick,

It happens. I know what that is like. Everyone makes these kinds of mistakes. Won't be the last time for me either.

Look at the attachments.

You wrote "after re looking the lines I noticed the line 3 back I had selected, I didn't think he rana very competitive race,"

Don't get me wrong. I am not picking on you or belaboring a point. Just ringing up something interesting about the 5 horse.

Look at the yellow highlighted areas. In a field when he breaks almost last, he does not do well.

Look at the blue areas. In three of the last four routes, it broke close to the front and by the first call or second call in a sprint he was a factor.

In the line 3 sprint, yes, it was far back at the 2C. But, look at the move in the final fraction. Also, look at the POR 2C times from the sprint and the line 1 route internals for 6 furlongs.

All of this is all well and good, but, how does that help?

It doesn't "look" competitive and that "is" where the money is......

Look at the 5 horse's pps and the Segment tab.

The key for me was the Running Styles to the right of the Segments tab. Pressers and Sustained. No Early. (The 4 horse comes the closest to being early. In retrospect, I maybe should have made the 4 horse an early horse, but, even if I did, I proably would not have changed my opinion about the running of the race.)

As you can see, I tentatively set the pace as 48 and 3 at the top of the 5 horse's pps. Is that right? Is that wrong? I don't know. The race hadn't been run yet. It is just a tool. It is just a benchmark for me to be able to think about how the race will run based upon the horses running styles.

Can the 5 horse compete at that pace? Absolutely. It will be near the front and competitive at that projected pace so it is a contender unless I deemed otherwise for some other reason.

Notice how slow I set the projected pace. Am I comfortable with it being that slow? Yes. A case can be made that the 4 horse will want the lead, but, it will go only as fast as the other pressers will press. In my view based upon running styles, it will be the horses that will be close to the pace that will have the best kick (late) to win the race.

As you can see from the Segments screen using my line 1, the 5 horse is second best in the TS+3F. If I run the sprint race line 3, it comes up second again.

While the 1 horse - Vulcan - looks sustained and finished third a bunch of times, the public obviously felt it was worth going off at odds of 2.4-1 even though it was off for 241 days and coming from GG.

The 3 horse is like the 1 horse... looks sustained, finished second a bunch of times and the public felt the odds of 2-1 were good.

The 4 horse looks to be the early speed but fades and is good enough for the public to have it go off at 2.5-1.

If the 1 horse beats me, it beats me, but, it is out for me due to the layoff and having only one workout at 3.of at BEU coming into this race. Is the horse ready to run? Is it in condition? (Notice I said condition and not form.)

The 4 horse is early and figures to be on the lead at the 2C. But, does it have enough speed for the home stretch?

The 3 and 5 horses will be pressing at the 2C. (See the 4.6's for computed beaten lengths at the 2C.) With the 4 horse fading, the 3 and 5 have the best chance to overtake the 4 with their best TS+3F rankings on the Incremental Graph.

With the odds going off at:
#1 2.40-1 (OUT)
#3 2.00-1
#4 2.50-1
#5 10.90-1

The 3 and 4 and 5 I feel have the best chance to win AND be in the money. I felt the 4 horse would fade and either the 3 or 5 would win. But, "MY FEELINGS DON'T COUNT WHEN THE RACE RUNS!" I don't know which horse is going to do what when the race runs. I don't have a crystal ball.

I bet the 5 horse across the board. I felt it had the best chance to hit the board. If it showed, I would get my money back, If it placed or won, I am in the money!!!! 23.80 to win - Gotta love it!!!

The running of the race did surprise me though. The 4 and 5 ran right out there and were like 8 lengths in front of everyone else on a 46 and 3 POR. (Like I said, I don't have a crystal ball.) The faster they ran, the more sure I was that the 4 horse was going to fade which it did.

If the POR was slower in the actual running of the race, It most likely would not have changed anything about the way the race was run based upon my analysis of running styles.

Anyway, latekick, just my thoughts on the race since I handicapped it.

Any Questions. Any time.

Jim