|
Google Site Search | Get RDSS | Sartin Library | RDSS FAQs | Conduct | Register | Site FAQ | Members List | Search | Today's Posts | Mark Forums Read
Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
03-05-2016, 05:12 AM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Last Line First
This is in response to a PM
What a nice professional man he is, I have great respect for his desire for clarity in a Pace and Cap friendly way . Step 1 in Phase 1 is to ALWAYS run the last line for every horse in the race. The winner will (almost) always come from one of these horses . This does not mean we should ONLY look at the last line, Its just a important step . I bet this race today I will post my twin spires bets for Friday for some reason when I bet off my phone with Twinspires mobile app it takes a few days to show up on the detail page online. Here is race 9 from Turfway 3/4/16 The first thing I did was set RDSS2 to select the last line for all the horses now note the top 5 TPR horses . Now I have a basic idea of a few things I don't want to get too involved in them yet , I will as time goes on ,but basically I'm looking at the top 5 TPR horses and the best EPR ratings Now that I have my Top 5 TPR last line horses I will start selecting my pace lines. I will post them but this time I am not going to comment on why I picked my lines I will say my fulcrum was the 1 7 tandem about a 45.3 here are the horses, my lines are checked. |
03-05-2016, 05:15 AM | #2 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
horse
1 2 3 4
|
03-05-2016, 05:19 AM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
horse
5 6 7 8 9
|
03-05-2016, 05:23 AM | #4 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Do you see it ?
I will wait a little before I post up the Phase 1 readouts
and result chart The winner Is one of the top 5 off the last line, I was able to use a better line One that match the fulcrum pace, It was a + paceline within 90 days Good Skilll Bill |
03-05-2016, 10:43 AM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
|
Bill,
Do you ever apply the fulcrum using the EPR numbers as Pizzolla suggests in Pace Makes the Race? Jeff |
03-05-2016, 12:01 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,535
|
Hi Bill, this was a nice score. To look at the actual running line from the last race you would not expect it to rank as high as it did in TPR. The public was fooled. I didn't use the last line for that horse but it pointed in the right direction also.
Pook |
03-05-2016, 12:26 PM | #7 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Hello Jeff
Yes of course. Let's say for example my fulcrum is a 94 epr I verify that the fulcrum horse has run competitively against a 94 , that is the line is not atypical . Now when I look at horse with competitive races with eprs like a 84 that means if theY run a 84 today they will probaby be too far back . So to move closer to the pace of 94 they most likely will run a lower lpr. Bill |
03-05-2016, 12:48 PM | #8 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Hi Pook ,
Yes this is why I have to disagree with Doc. And the people who say that phase 1 will only get low priced horses . Or $6 horses In your match up contest race the top 5 off the last line ar 4 8 1 3 2 and some of those lines look terrible, the only horses with a plus paceline are the 4 which was it's mcs 40 win line , and the 8 who is rising in class of a loss. The 5 and 6 show (+) last lines but have low LPS because they both were coming off layoffs and today they drop in class |
03-05-2016, 01:56 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
|
Great Score Bill!!!
Only contender left with a late energy distribution...
TPR Result chart |
03-05-2016, 09:25 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
|
Bill,
Very nice hit Jeff |
Thread Tools | |
Display Modes | |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
Using RDSS with a sample race in my learning (Apr 13, 2013 - OP Race 2) | NeedForSpeed | RDSS | 5 | 06-13-2013 02:28 PM |
Churchill Grade 1- Friday 11/25 - TM 113 Race Class | RichieP | Matchup Discussion | 19 | 11-26-2011 04:22 PM |
Major vs. Minor tracks | Bill P | General Discussion | 109 | 04-05-2010 03:23 PM |
Paceline selection | AAcoolguy | General Discussion | 44 | 07-27-2008 08:42 AM |