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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 03-06-2016, 09:04 PM   #1
Bill V.
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James Quinn reviews Pace Makes The Race

From follow up 30
Doc writes
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Old 03-06-2016, 09:07 PM   #2
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continue

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Old 03-06-2016, 10:47 PM   #3
lone speed
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Great Brief Synopsis of TPR

Bill..

Thanks for your time and research in your posts in this section of TPR:

I would like to post a couple of comments which are of the $.02 varieties of opinions only....

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James Quinn stressed the importance of final times juxtaposed with the early pace time as a truer measure of a horse's performance. Quinn mentioned about the simple compound of EPR with LPR; that the authors of Pace Makes the Race used effectively to attack the races.


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In another book with a similar title but titled "The Race is Pace" written by Huey Mahl. One of the most important aspect of Mahl's short book is his premise that "the early pace has a telescopic effect on the rest of the race."

This simple sentence is brief yet powerful in presenting Huey Mahl's theory that how fast the early pace is run will affect the late pace "exponentially."

EPR + LPR = TPR is an effective tool but it is a linear equation that does not give enough importance to the impact of the early pace that Mahl so eloquently writes; yet in one simple sentence.

Speed figures are only accurate if they followed Mahl's premise in his short book. Now I am no expert whatsoever in the "realm of speed figure performances" but I am adamant that speed figures are only valid if they followed Mahl's premise and they used early pace performances to determine speed figures for the final times of the teletimers. This is why Beyer's speed figures are just as valid as the DRF daily variants plus the 3 year old track records that Doc Sartin mentioned in some publication of the Follow-Ups.

But to keep things simple and to keep with the spirit of Huey Mahl and Jim Bradshaw; and to cohere to the topic of this thread presented by you, Bill;

Let's remember what Jim Bradshaw wrote:

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Last edited by lone speed; 03-06-2016 at 10:51 PM.
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Old 03-07-2016, 12:57 PM   #4
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A very nice article as he hits many things on the head. A great introduction to the novice or those just beginning with RDSS, Pace, and the Doc's teaching. One of those nails he drove home was the ability to pick proper contenders and pace line. Without those two key ingredients it doesn't make a difference what program or Phase is used.

A very simplistic approach that has evolved over the years to be much better than the original. A newbie can't go wrong with TPR which can be the launch pad to the future. If new your in the right place and old heads can also learn a thing or two.
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Old 03-07-2016, 01:56 PM   #5
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Thank You

Thank you Mitch and lonespeed

I hope I can get us all onto proper pace line selections'
I worked a race yesterday ( I am in transit ) the race was race 3 from Santa Anita. Ted and I were talking this morning, as we were talking he clicked on the race, It turns out just clicking the race RDSS2 had it exactly correct.
When I worked the race following the phase 1 steps and than seeing the
readouts my thought was How easy is this race ? My bets were the 4 and 5
Looking at the Running styles and the advantages the 4 and 5 have on EPR
LPR and TPR, who can possible pass and over take these two?.

My point is Phase 1 makes it simple but I feel the fact that I selected my pace lines in a consistent proper manner made the win that much more satisfying.

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Old 03-07-2016, 02:41 PM   #6
lone speed
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Bill..

I enjoyed these postings..please keep it going...

I'm glad that you got the winner quickly....

It might be more clear or "Blatant" that only one horse was going to dominate this race from the early pace fractions.

On TPR

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It looks like two horses are almost evenly matched for the Early Pace but if one actually looks at the pace fractions; it should be obvious that one horse will dominate the match-up and force the other early horse into submission by forcing it to run a faster pace in today's match-up.

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The EPR of 91.5 versus 92.0 does NOT clearly show the HUGE advantage that one horse will have in today's match-up even though the winner was isolated by your work-up...

But in the Energy Tab of RDSS, if one looks at the 1st fraction, one might clearly see that one horse will have a huge early pace advantage.

Keep these posts going....it's a great tutorial for all levels...

Last edited by lone speed; 03-07-2016 at 02:46 PM.
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Old 03-07-2016, 10:35 PM   #7
lone speed
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Review of Toledo Eddie

I wanted the review the result chart of the winner, Toledo Eddie

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Here is the result chart of the "blistering race" won by Toledo Eddie who romped by double digit lengths. Some might ask where did this "huge effort" come from this 7 year-old gelding... But the "real question" is did it really improved that much or did it just run the same race;but it just re-distributed its energy differently as Jim Bradshaw postulated......??

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Here is the past performance again. Let's focus on the pace fractions of the last paceline: 22.2 and 45.2 and 110.1 with a final time of 135.2 ( all in fifths)
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But let's look at a more detailed result chart of that paceline from that race:

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When we look at the detailed Equibase chart with pace fractions in tenths; we have the pace fractions of the last paceline of Toledo Eddie rounded to the nearest fifths as 22.2 for 2F and 45.2 for 4F and 110.1 for 6 F and a final time rounded to 135.3 not the 135.2 listed in the past performances.

Bradshaw stated that for every fifth of a second used in the early pace; it will the affect the finish by two-fifths. Let's put it more straight forward.

One fifth in EARLY Pace affects FINAL time by Two-fifths...energy used up or energy saved in the early pace.

If used up or if the horse has to run a "Fifth" of a second faster it will lose "Two-fifths" at the final time.

If energy is saved in the Early Pace; then the horse will gain "Two-fifths" at the final time.


Toledo Eddie hit the mile marker in today's result chart in 134 and 4 fifths. Did it "freaked" out or did it run the same race but it just redistributed its energy differently as Bradshaw stated?????

In today's match-up, it ran two furlongs in 22 and 4 fifths...so it conserved two-fifths of energy compared to the 22 and two-fifths that it ran in its last paceline so it will gain 4 fifths at the final time...Did Toledo Eddie gained four-fifths of energy today???

Last paceline
22.2 45.2 110.1 and a final time of 135.3

today's result chart:

22.4 45.2 109.3 and a final time of 134.4 which means that it gained four-fifths in the final time because it conserved two-fifths in the early pace; just exactly as Jim Bradshaw stated in his 25 words statement.

This is just one example; I am positive that we can find many other examples of today's comparison....
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