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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 10-03-2013, 06:56 PM   #11
Mark
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Mountaineer is a very unique track. I believe at one time it was a bull ring but was expanded to a mile. Here is the track layout:
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This is possibly one reason these races don't transfer well to other tracks.
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Old 10-03-2013, 07:01 PM   #12
Bill V.
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Wow

Thanks Mark

Yes besides the very wide turn I see the start/finish line is not as close to the first turn as I thought . I wonder if horse running at MNR for the first time
wonder why they are getting so tired on the turn

Parx is a more conventional mile oval

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974 feet from last turn to finish. To first Turn, 313 feet.


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Old 10-03-2013, 07:35 PM   #13
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Bill,
Have you ever gone out to Pomona for the County Fair and watched the races? That is a true Bull Ring. The radius of the turns is so short that it places an absolute premium on early speed. Jockeys like Flores and Martin Pedroza would have a field trip there. (A lot of the top riders took the meet off). The centrifigal force in those turns is minimal down low on the rail but if you were more than 2 horses wide you could forget it. Sore legged horses will quit running as the pressure on their knees and suspensory while trying to take that turn at speed would stop them. You have that same condition in the Clubhouse turn at MNR. No one ever wants to get hung wide in either turn but a horse is virtually eliminated if wide on MNR's first turn in route races. So FTL's comments concerning this race are magnified. Hopefully, this helps explain some of the vagarities of that track.
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Old 10-03-2013, 07:50 PM   #14
Ted Craven
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If RDSS users want to see this kind of track related information, check the link on the RDSS Desktop:

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It takes you to: http://www1.drf.com/entries/entries_info.html

And, Pomona = Fairplex (http://www1.drf.com/trackinfo/fairplex_park.html)

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Old 10-03-2013, 08:32 PM   #15
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Thanks Ted - that never caught my eye.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven View Post
If RDSS users want to see this kind of track related information, check the link on the RDSS Desktop:

Attachment 35893

It takes you to: http://www1.drf.com/entries/entries_info.html

And, Pomona = Fairplex (http://www1.drf.com/trackinfo/fairplex_park.html)

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Old 10-03-2013, 08:46 PM   #16
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Ted and Mark

Thanks for the different track information

Good Skill
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Old 03-08-2016, 09:39 AM   #17
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One Of My Favorite Spot Plays

This is one of my favorite spot plays and I look for it all the time

To review I quote FTL

Quote:
This is a ONE MILE race, with a short run to the first turn. Early horses from the inside will benefit. Early horses on the outside will NOT benefit. Why? Because the horses on the outside have to go wide around the first turn, causing them to lose ground, especially if/when they have to try and outrun a superior early horse on the inside. If they can't get out of the gate with enough speed to cross over the field (without interferring) and get to the rail, they are in trouble.
Yesterday Race 6 at Turf Paradise, what did I see, Yes !!!
a one mile route the favorite is # 8 -- The outside post and its an Early runner.

I blocked out my TS bet but lets say it was over normal ,

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Here is my work up

Step 1 Run each horse's last pace line , take note of the top 5 TPR.
Top 5 TPR Line 1
5 8 7 6 1

Step 2
Find The Fulcrum = find the best EPR of a horse from the last line that is within 5 bl at the 2nd call and final time
Fulcrum 80

Step 3 Mark the running styles
Running styles
Horse 1 EP Line 1
Horse 2 Presser 1
Horse 3 Sus Line 1
Horse 4 EP line 1 sprinter
Horse 5 Sus line 1
Horse 6 Early Line 1
Horse 7 Press line 1
Horse 8 Early line 1

Step 4 Who are the best Earlys
The 8 has the best EPR 90
Early BUT ITS OUTSIDE !!!

Now will the 8 with a low 77 LPR
be able to hold on .

Step 5 Rate the Early , then the Pressers , Then the Substantiated

The top TPR horses are 8 7 and 5

Step 6 Check the VDC readout
Top 3 VDC 7 6 (1-8 )
My bets 7-5

Here is a new improved TPR screen,
with the VDC rankings in percentage from the best


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I will post the pps next

Last edited by Bill V.; 03-08-2016 at 10:07 AM.
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Old 03-08-2016, 09:42 AM   #18
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pps

horses

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Old 03-08-2016, 09:50 AM   #19
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Rest

5 6 7 8

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Old 03-08-2016, 10:01 AM   #20
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Results

The Best Early #8 on the outside did not win. The 7 and 6 with good LPS and VDC ran well

Here is the chart

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