Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Pace Makes the Race / TPR
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-02-2016, 12:32 PM   #11
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Bill I admire your endeavor to advance followers to the advance concepts which is no small task. The problem is too many fall by the wayside and never succeed because of too much confusing information on RDSS I.e. Throw out horses whose morning line is 15-1 and higher. Hell isn't that what we're looking for? Or always use the last line. Another non teaching point of the Doc along with using lines more that 1 furlong to todays distance.

IMO to succeed one should use the Doc's recommended procedures as expressed in, I believe its in FU # 81 for picking pace lines not the original pace manual etc. as he evolved over the years and refined many concepts.

Also they should use the advanced tool of Perceptor which has proven better than the old speed rating plus variant etc., another old concept that has fell by the wayside. The road is littered with discarded concepts as the Doc advanced pace. Also this is probably why their told to read later editions of the Follow Up because in the earlier versions their not knowledgeable enough to know what's valid and what isn't. But as we know there's much good stuff there also.

Everyone's chance of success greatly increases with proper pace line picking as per the Doc's guidelines and use of the Perceptor. Besides being littered with a few old concepts the road is mostly really cluttered with the carcass's of those who refuse: to change, adapt or evolve as the Doc did, use basic concepts, new tools and those that get incorrect information and never even learn to crawl.

Mitch 44

Last edited by Mitch44; 03-02-2016 at 12:34 PM.
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2016, 02:07 PM   #12
atkinsrr
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 507
Thanks Bill...yes...Triple Crown races are a whole different game usually I get a 9F pace line when hcp the Derby....a few times I've had to use an 8.5 f Line...but also remember DOC telling us in F.U. #87 when hcp the Preakness and Belmont to not use the Derby line....that was good advice !!!!!!!!!
atkinsrr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2016, 07:12 AM   #13
DontSayDont
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
Bill I admire your endeavor to advance followers to the advance concepts which is no small task. The problem is too many fall by the wayside and never succeed because of too much confusing information on RDSS I.e. Throw out horses whose morning line is 15-1 and higher. Hell isn't that what we're looking for? Or always use the last line. Another non teaching point of the Doc along with using lines more that 1 furlong to todays distance.

IMO to succeed one should use the Doc's recommended procedures as expressed in, I believe its in FU # 81 for picking pace lines not the original pace manual etc. as he evolved over the years and refined many concepts.

Also they should use the advanced tool of Perceptor which has proven better than the old speed rating plus variant etc., another old concept that has fell by the wayside. The road is littered with discarded concepts as the Doc advanced pace. Also this is probably why their told to read later editions of the Follow Up because in the earlier versions their not knowledgeable enough to know what's valid and what isn't. But as we know there's much good stuff there also.

Everyone's chance of success greatly increases with proper pace line picking as per the Doc's guidelines and use of the Perceptor. Besides being littered with a few old concepts the road is mostly really cluttered with the carcass's of those who refuse: to change, adapt or evolve as the Doc did, use basic concepts, new tools and those that get incorrect information and never even learn to crawl.

Mitch 44
The only problem with your post, this is a forum for: Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race', not for pace line selection and use of Perceptor. I am sure if you or someone with knowledge of the correct use of perceptor wanted to start a forum on that, you would get a good following of players wanting to learn that information.

One problem I would have about NOT using a line outside of 1 furlong of today's distance is the "tool box" angle about the sprint-sprint-route training pattern that is talked about in some of the handicapping books and by a online personality who I will leave nameless.

I only mention that as I believe that when push comes to shove, each individual has to find a methodology/systematical way of approaching handicapping that leads them to a way where it is both comfortable and enjoyable to engage in this horse racing endevour. I did not include profitable in that sentence as not everyone involved in handicapping has to make a profit to be content but use it as an enjoyable pastime. I am not a full time player or a profitable overall player (yet, maybe one day) but one of the great enjoyments for me and my spouse is all the different tracks we have visited because of going to Finger Lakes Race Track many, many years ago for the very first live racing venture.

Good success to everyone, however you approach the game.

Bill is providing just one possible procedure and it works well for him as he has proven in many of his posts on here.

Ray
DontSayDont is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2016, 09:25 AM   #14
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Ray even with Phase 1 if you can't pick pace lines you can't win. Its the springboard to success or springboard to losers. No different than going from point A to point B in a car, if you don't put the key in the ignition and turn it than your stuck at A.

As far as Preceptor, I hear stuff in here such as match-up, your own tool box comment etc. that are not in Pace Makes the Race. I believe you take my posts the wrong way as I'm trying to contribute to the discussion. However I find it hard to ignore or go against the Doc's teachings that have proven themselves such as pace line selection. Your the first I've heard who are not in this to make a few $

I didn't see this race till about 10 pm last night or would have tried to fit it in my schedule. I really like that it was posted prior to the start. (the 7th at Turf Paradise) I did work it with the information Bill provided and had the winner. Then I tried it with RDSS and the use of Perceptor and changed one line. The winner came up 3rd there however #'s 2,3,& 4th ranked on BL/BL were so close that advanced techniques were used to get the winner in the top 2.

I won't comment on the pace line selection used here as its no different then the previous race.
Good luck,
Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 03-03-2016 at 09:29 AM.
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2016, 10:53 AM   #15
Lt1
Grade 1
 
Lt1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,036
Hi folks. I've been a member of the group since 1990 and thanks to Doc,Jimmy, and others I am a successful horse racing investor. With regards to this thread I feel that if Bills intention is to show newer and struggling members how to properly apply TPR/Phase 1 then I believe we should stick to races where guidelines are followed to the letter. If on the other hand Bill is just showing how he won a race then bend away. The call is for Bill to make.
Tim Gagas
Lt1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2016, 11:55 AM   #16
dlivery
Grade 1
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Thornhill ON
Posts: 437
Let us not forget

We are here to share ideas and believe it or not weather it constuctive to help or not we will gather all informationat at different levels of expertise and since reading and learning in the area on pace line selection has cetainly not hurt my good skills I have learned from this discussion
__________________
May all wagers be Winners...
dlivery is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2016, 02:21 PM   #17
lone speed
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
Another viewpoint- The FIRST CALL MATCH-UP

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
From a private message question,
and please don't ever consider asking questions anything but welcomed learning for all.

This is in regards to this posted race
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...98&postcount=1
Why would I use a 8 furlong pace line for a 10 furlong race
Doc's guidelines are to use lines within a furlong of today's distance
I used a mile line for both the winner and the place horse
For the 1 I suppose i should have used line 2, but line 2 at 8.5 is also more than 1 furlong short.

For the winner #4 I used the last line Its from 1 mile, Line 2 is from 8.5
so again It still doe not make the guidelines. However l iine 2 to me looks like
a trouble trip. It does not say so in the comments but looking at the position the horse normally runs and its TPR readouts, Line 2 looks just like it just did
not fire, But It has run well at 8.5 in the past.
I stayed with the last line.


Doc offers guidelines not rules
Let's look at Bill V.'s chosen pacelines and the TPR match up

Name:  Snap 2016-03-09 at 10.49.23.png
Views: 388
Size:  18.5 KB

Evaluating the early match-up, we noticed that there are no early horses and that the whole field runs late, which should be no surprise; as these are all turf runners.

We can quickly eliminate #2 Shyshe and #6 Cornish. We can eliminate Shyshe because if she runs early as does #4 Agustina; but if you match just these two with only TPR numbers, we can see that #4 Agustina has a better late kick than #2 Shyshe. #6 Cornish has the lowest CPR total of 181.0.

Now with the remaining four contenders; most Sartin programs will have #1 Artistic and #3 Moon Over and #4 Agustina in that particular order. Now some will "wagercap" or there are others who will take the best value; or those who will hide the favorite.....

But can we evaluate this match-up better? More "optimal"?????

Let's look at this match-up with Bill V.'s chosen pacelines in one of Doc Sartin program but it should be readily available in most programs including RDSS.

Name:  Snap 2016-03-09 at 10.09.12.png
Views: 395
Size:  14.9 KB

Let's focus on the F1 or First Call matchup in this race and let's evaluate what we can discern or to detect a match-up advantage in this race.

We can see that #4 Augustina has a HUGE early 1st Call advantage over this field. Her advantage at the first call is almost +0.70 energy points over her nearest rival. If she can conserve energy in the early pace of this match-up; #4 Augustina will have more energy for the rest of the race. #4 Augustina will be able to run faster than the 102.3 LPR from her last paceline.

Name:  Snap 2016-03-09 at 10.05.18.png
Views: 390
Size:  10.1 KB
In the seminars that I had attended with Doc Sartin and the expert users of Energy like Glen Connolly; Glen the "General from Maryland" talked about the 100's horses who dominated the early match- up readouts. They are dangerous if left alone on the early pace. Especially if they have two 100's on the match-up screens. F1 and F2 columns These horses are usually ranked third or fourth on V/DC or B/L screens nowadays in updated programs.

This is just my humble opinion and from my own experiences with the Sartin Methodology.

Last edited by lone speed; 03-09-2016 at 02:40 PM. Reason: grammer..
lone speed is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-11-2016, 09:13 PM   #18
lone speed
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
I was asked to explained in-depth; the reasons behind the strong corollaries when a horse controls the first call and the 2nd call match up in the dream race. This person made a lot good points that many especially new Rdss users will not fully grasp the importance of these readouts as they are from older Sartin software. But I decided to let Doc Sartin explain it himself, as I dug up these pages from the 1988 Las Vegas seminar.

Name:  Snap 2016-04-11 at 18.03.35.png
Views: 339
Size:  82.5 KB

Name:  Snap 2016-04-11 at 18.03.53.png
Views: 337
Size:  75.4 KB

Name:  Snap 2016-04-11 at 18.04.04.png
Views: 331
Size:  77.3 KB

Name:  Snap 2016-04-11 at 18.04.15.png
Views: 329
Size:  76.1 KB

Last edited by lone speed; 04-11-2016 at 09:16 PM.
lone speed is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-11-2016, 09:14 PM   #19
lone speed
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
Name:  Snap 2016-04-11 at 18.04.26.png
Views: 338
Size:  75.7 KB

Name:  Snap 2016-04-11 at 18.04.40.png
Views: 314
Size:  83.4 KB
lone speed is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Pace line question Bill V. Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 15 06-12-2015 09:53 AM
8 Month Matchup Thread (Re-posted) Bill Lyster Matchup Discussion 4 05-01-2015 05:02 PM
Using RDSS with a sample race in my learning (Apr 13, 2013 - OP Race 2) NeedForSpeed RDSS 5 06-13-2013 02:28 PM
Major vs. Minor tracks Bill P General Discussion 109 04-05-2010 03:23 PM
Jim Bradshaw's 5 Step Approach to learning the Matchup RichieP Hat Check - How Can We Help You? 1 05-25-2009 09:52 AM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:52 PM.