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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
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03-10-2016, 03:58 PM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Practice race SA race 5 8.5 3/10/16
Post time is 3;00 pst
Please help me out , Lets win this one Step 1 Top 5 TPR Line 1 6 5 2 8 1 Step 2 Fulcrum horse #6 90 ( 110.8 ) Step 3 Running styles Horse 1 Sus Line 2 sprinter Horse 2 EP 1 Horse 3 Press Line 1 Horse 4 SP line 2 Horse 5 Press line 3 Horse 6 EP Line 1 Horse 7 Early line 1, turf lines Horse 8 Sus line 1 Step 4 Who has the top EPR The 6 has the best EPR 90 Early Presser Wire to wire No because of the 1 being a sprinter and 7 turf only Step 5 rate the lines make your decisions Now will the 5 with a 87 LPR be able to get there ? . The top TPR horses They are 5 4 and 6 Top 3 VDC = 5 2 6 My bets 5 and 4 8 may be too far back with only a 80.5 EPR Last edited by Bill V.; 03-10-2016 at 04:01 PM. |
03-10-2016, 04:10 PM | #2 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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horse
1 2 3 4
Last edited by Bill V.; 03-10-2016 at 04:14 PM. |
03-10-2016, 04:16 PM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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horse
5 6 7 8
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03-10-2016, 04:41 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,539
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Hi Bill,
I set a 22.7/45.8/110.8 from the 6. The 7 the turf horse is scratched. The 1 is a sprinter alright, but not a positionally early horse. Therefore I think the 6 could wire. The only early type with the fastest splits. Of the remaining the 5 is all that is left that can handle the pace of the 6. Track profile says early of which the 4 is a part of but his fractions pale in comparison to what I expect from the 6. I would bet 5,6 Pook |
03-10-2016, 05:03 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,539
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Of course only if the odds are right. With the 7 out, the 6 will probably be bet out of range. The 5 might be okay. But I guess the purpose here is to just pick winners.
Pook Last edited by The Pook; 03-10-2016 at 05:09 PM. |
03-10-2016, 05:08 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,539
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Anyways no matter who wins the race, your workup and layout above is clear, and explains the principles you are trying to get across very well.
Appreciate the effort and enthusiasm. Pook |
03-10-2016, 05:33 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,539
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I hope it's okay that I am doing matchup stuff in your TPR area? I do look at TPR's etc. when I am matching.
Pook |
03-10-2016, 05:37 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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Same trainer of Toledo Eddie
The trainer of the possible early pace horse of today's race was the same trainer of Toledo Eddie a week earlier with the same early energy distribution.
I'm referring to #6 Mr. Cartagena My question will be "Did the last race take too much; chasing the fast pace that Mr. Cartagena might react today?" Did it ran this effort before?? The other highlighted line shows a similar effort as the last paceline. Looking at the Energy screen at the First Call; we see that it has a big advantage in today's match-up even with the sprinter in the race. My $0.02 opinion will be #6 Mr.Cartagena with #8 Northern Iowa and #5 Derby Glass giving a vain chase. Good skills |
03-10-2016, 05:41 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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pp of Mr Cartagena
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03-10-2016, 05:47 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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My Lines are :
1. L 4 2. L 2 3. L 2 4. L 2 5. L 3 6. L 2 7. SCR. 8. L 2 My contenders are: 5-6-4-1-3 note: 1 & 3 are only for ex. or tri. My top 3 are 5-6-4 in that order Best of luck, Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 03-10-2016 at 05:55 PM. |
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