waggercapping - Pace and Cap

admin · 10-27-2007, 06:50 AM

Quote:

Steve,

At 1 MTP the #5 was about 7/2, my first bet. The #3 was 5/2 and the #4 was 25-1. I try to wager on 2 horses, one being my top ranked at 5/2 or better and the other being from my top 3 BL/BL at highest odds. That 2nd horse was the #4. Don't ask why I didn't do the same thing in races 6,8,9

. That strategy would have made a lot more money today!

No worries.

Ted

This is a very powerful betting stratagy
What Ted did to get the $55.00 winner is right out off the later follow ups

1, Hide any horse that will pay less than your min.
1. Bet two horses
2, Bet in your top 3 the horse that will pay over 5/2 (Doc's suggested min.)and that you didn't hide,
3. Your second bet is the best overlay of your contenders

This is only a suggested method If you use this method your paceline selection
and the program itself will do the work

It takes practice and patience but it is a strong method for
consistant winning cycles and for getting longer prices

GS
Bill

jms62 · 10-27-2007, 07:39 AM

And can I add that you MUST NOT talk yourself out of playing your best overlay. It doesn't matter if your 1st 2 picks are Secretariat and Seabiscuit reincarnated... You won't hit your 50-1 bombs if your mind gets in the way. Hold your nose and plunge. My method is a bit different as I choose the highest 2 odds of the top 3.

admin · 10-27-2007, 08:25 AM

Jim
You make an excellent point
This is a total commitment method step
You have to be very consistant and base the results on cycles
There are a few ways I have waggercapped

1, Using the top 3 no hides betting 60/40 low high
2. Using the top 4. Hiding the favorite - less than 5/2 odds at 2 mins
Bet the low and high odds of the contenders
3, Using the top 4 NOT hiding the favorite -less than 5/2 odds at 2 mins
Bet the low and high odds of the contenders
4, Bet the two highest odds

For me they all worked because I got some very long priced horses
in the 20 race cycle
I did my best when I used # 3
I find #1 is best when i'm having outside issues
# 4 I have used the least
#2 is closes to what Doc uses as a guideline

alydar_ David · 10-27-2007, 10:42 AM

Some tracks are suited for Wagercapping. MNR is a perfect example. Last night one of my "non-top picks" went off at a ridiculous price. I bet him and he won the first race paying $95.60.

There are some times you really feel like kicking yourself with this approach though. For example, in the third race at PEN last night I was torn between Casto and Domin for my second win bet. At two minutes to post:

Casto was 34-1
Domin was 26-1

So, I bet Casto to win; he had the longer odds of the two. Guess what happened? Domin won the race... paying 46-1 to 1! Ouch.

At some track Wagercapping doesn't work very well. Tracks like BM and CRC which are chalk city come immediately to mind. At those tracks you're better off making multiple race wagers -- daily doubles, Pick3s & Pick4s.

And here's a tip. You see more bombs come in on a full moon than you do any other time of the month. I always wagercap on a full moon. I've been doing it for years ever since I first noticed this phenomenon.

Last night was a full moon. You can expect more bombs today too. That's one bet you can take to the bank.

admin · 10-27-2007, 11:37 AM

Quote:

There are some times you really feel like kicking yourself with this approach though. For example, in the third race at PEN last night I was torn between Casto and Domin for my second win bet. At two minutes to post:

Casto was 34-1
Domin was 26-1

So, I bet Casto to win; he had the longer odds of the two. Guess what happened? Domin won the race... paying 46-1 to 1! Ouch

Hello Alydar
first off thank you again for the beautiful keeneland package
I really enjoy it

David I started a seperate bank roll just for the 3rd options
because I have been there like what happened to you

Nothing works all the time at all tracks
Doc guidelines do say he passes races when his top 3 choices are the same as the publics odds top 3

jms62 · 10-27-2007, 01:00 PM

How awful is NJBets today.... They should be embarassed that their system can't ahndle these loads.

admin · 10-27-2007, 03:19 PM

down and out
Its philly and Thisle for me only
Even then two times I put bets in then got error messages that the bet did
not go in. Then I tried again and the bet went in twice
Once it was a double loss, The next time it was a win but that was it for me

jms62 · 10-27-2007, 03:34 PM

It literally takes me the entire time between the races to get 3 bets in.. I am not exaggerating at all. They should be embarrased. The biggest day ever for NJ racing and they give us this ??? How can they not stress test to the loads they expected... You estimate loads and test to 5-10 times that .

admin · 10-27-2007, 03:44 PM

totally shut down now I can bet others but monmouth is
blocked

Ted Craven · 10-27-2007, 04:39 PM

Wow! I'm sure NJ is a great place, but between the fall weather and the betting system (and the corral they keep bettors inside of) - Bill you must be tearing your hair out! And Jim, bummer B'day gift from the Garden State!

Ted

10-27-2007, 03:19 PM	#7
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	NJbets down and out Its philly and Thisle for me only Even then two times I put bets in then got error messages that the bet did not go in. Then I tried again and the bet went in twice Once it was a double loss, The next time it was a win but that was it for me Last edited by admin; 10-27-2007 at 03:22 PM.

10-27-2007, 03:44 PM	#9
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	yep totally shut down now I can bet others but monmouth is blocked

10-27-2007, 04:39 PM	#10
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,853	Wow! I'm sure NJ is a great place, but between the fall weather and the betting system (and the corral they keep bettors inside of) - Bill you must be tearing your hair out! And Jim, bummer B'day gift from the Garden State! Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

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10-27-2007, 07:39 AM	#2
jms62 Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 798	And can I add that you MUST NOT talk yourself out of playing your best overlay. It doesn't matter if your 1st 2 picks are Secretariat and Seabiscuit reincarnated... You won't hit your 50-1 bombs if your mind gets in the way. Hold your nose and plunge. My method is a bit different as I choose the highest 2 odds of the top 3. Last edited by jms62; 10-27-2007 at 07:41 AM.

10-27-2007, 08:25 AM	#3
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	true Jim You make an excellent point This is a total commitment method step You have to be very consistant and base the results on cycles There are a few ways I have waggercapped 1, Using the top 3 no hides betting 60/40 low high 2. Using the top 4. Hiding the favorite - less than 5/2 odds at 2 mins Bet the low and high odds of the contenders 3, Using the top 4 NOT hiding the favorite -less than 5/2 odds at 2 mins Bet the low and high odds of the contenders 4, Bet the two highest odds For me they all worked because I got some very long priced horses in the 20 race cycle I did my best when I used # 3 I find #1 is best when i'm having outside issues # 4 I have used the least #2 is closes to what Doc uses as a guideline

10-27-2007, 10:42 AM	#4
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Some tracks are suited for Wagercapping. MNR is a perfect example. Last night one of my "non-top picks" went off at a ridiculous price. I bet him and he won the first race paying $95.60. There are some times you really feel like kicking yourself with this approach though. For example, in the third race at PEN last night I was torn between Casto and Domin for my second win bet. At two minutes to post: Casto was 34-1 Domin was 26-1 So, I bet Casto to win; he had the longer odds of the two. Guess what happened? Domin won the race... paying 46-1 to 1! Ouch. At some track Wagercapping doesn't work very well. Tracks like BM and CRC which are chalk city come immediately to mind. At those tracks you're better off making multiple race wagers -- daily doubles, Pick3s & Pick4s. And here's a tip. You see more bombs come in on a full moon than you do any other time of the month. I always wagercap on a full moon. I've been doing it for years ever since I first noticed this phenomenon. Last night was a full moon. You can expect more bombs today too. That's one bet you can take to the bank.

10-27-2007, 01:00 PM	#6
jms62 Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 798	How awful is NJBets today.... They should be embarassed that their system can't ahndle these loads.

10-27-2007, 03:34 PM	#8
jms62 Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 798	It literally takes me the entire time between the races to get 3 bets in.. I am not exaggerating at all. They should be embarrased. The biggest day ever for NJ racing and they give us this ??? How can they not stress test to the loads they expected... You estimate loads and test to 5-10 times that .