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Old 11-06-2011, 11:28 PM   #1
For The Lead
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Breeders Cup 2011 a look back

First, I hope all that played did well. I didn't even look at the races, but I did take a look at some things in retrospect. Here they are.

Let's look at the charts for CD on 11.4, 11.5 and 11.6. First I will show the winner's position at the first two calls. Then I will show the same two calls by age and sex.
Sorry I didn't line them up perfectly, it was just that I was pretty busy and didn't take the time.

Nov.4th 1st call 2nd call
Race 1 = 3 2
2 = 4 2
3 = 6 5
4 = 5 1
5 = 2 1
6 = 5 6
7 = 2 4
8 = 2 1
9 = 8 6
10 = 4 4
Nov 5th
1 = 1 1
2 = 5 5
3 = 8 6
4 = 7 5
5 = 5 4
6 = 2 1
7 = 8 8
8 = 7 6
9 = 1 1
10 = 12 10
11 = 9 10
See any difference in those two days?
It looks like they ran more early on the 4th than they did on the 5th, doesn't it?
Ok, was it just the way the track was playing on those two days? I don't think so.
On the 4th, the races were for the fillies and mares.
On the 5th, it was the "boys" turn.
Not sure yet?
Let's take a look at the races the day after the Breeders cup, the 6th.

Race 1 = 3 1
2 = 2 2
3 = 7 6
4 = 2 2
5 = 1 1
6 = 6 4
7 = 9 2
8 = 6 3
9 = 6 4

Kind of a mixed bag, right?

Alright, let's just look at the races for 3yo and up MALES, regardless of distance or surface.

3 2
4 2
6 5
8 6
5 4
2 1
8 8
7 6
12 10
9 10

Not too many early horses there, are there?

Now let's look at the 3yo and up fillies and mares

2 4
8 6
4 4
1 1
2 2

A little earlier there, right?
Let's look at the young fillies, 2 and 3 yo

5 6
2 1
5 5
3 1
2 2
2 2
1 1

WOW! Things look a little different there, don't they?
Now for the younger boys.

5 1
2 1
7 5
1 1
9 2
Not too many, but 4 out of 5 were 1st or 2nd at the second call.
In fact, of the 12 races for males and females 2 or 3 years old, 9 of them were 1st or 2nd at the second call. A lot different from their older counterparts.

This is just 3 days and the results are just broken down by age and sex. If you were to have enough races so you could break them down appropriately, distance, surface, sex, at least, you may see a clearer picture. If you knew what to look for in advance, is it possible you would have fared better in the Breeders Cup races?

Just some food for thought.
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Old 11-07-2011, 01:05 AM   #2
Bill Lyster
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Many thanks

As usual, very nice and different ideas, Bud.

Thanks for your insight,



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