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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
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09-16-2013, 08:53 AM | #31 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 507
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FTL...thx for the quick response...I never fully understood what a "+" race was until you explained it that way.....Thanks a lot...always looking to improve on P/L selection
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09-16-2013, 09:00 AM | #32 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 507
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also thx Bill for the explanation on the 7.5 B/L...I always thought that the 7.5 B/L was for all programs....you and FTL have kinda cleared up my view of P/L selecting....always looking for ways to improve....Thx again
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09-16-2013, 11:02 AM | #33 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Quote:
I have the Finger lakes card. Here is the winner, I myself can not see a valid excuse for line 1. I do see a 15/1 Ml and a + race within 90 days and almost 2 + races since line 4 is 92 days old. I see 6 non claiming + races including a stakes win at FL last year. Now the distance ? I do see good success at 8.5 furlongs in its past but other than the mud win not so much at 8.33 This is a handicap race, The 2 was not a high weight. Would I go to line 2 without a valid excuse ? I probably would use line 2 but because of the past success Bill |
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09-16-2013, 11:11 AM | #34 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Results
Here is the chart
Not that this has anything to do with the methodology but The Jockey switch back to J. Flores, could be a positive since this jockey won on Moms Law in the past |
09-16-2013, 05:12 PM | #35 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,041
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Hi Bill. Just thought I add my two cents if I may. Those of us that use the best of the last 3 comparable would have no problem using line 2. As Doc stated in his publishers column in FU #81 the last line is less predictive than lines 2 &3 and in many races no more predictive than line 4. With this horse I noticed that his last 4 races she exhibits a good race, bad race pattern. The switch back to a jockey who had won with her before was another positive. As an aside this last Sundays race 1 at Parx was similar. I went back to l4 although it was 125 days old. The horse won and paid $28.20 and keyed an $112.60 ex. I guess what I'm trying to point out is although you and FTL prefer not to go in most cases there is more than 1 way to use the methodology with none being right or wrong. Keep up the good work.
Tim |
09-16-2013, 07:48 PM | #36 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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Quote:
I stand corrected and thanks for making the correction! The "entire" condition includes the "OR NW4L", which brings up an interesting point and what handicapping is about. The "OR NW4L" is an add on condition in an effort to fill the race so the race can "go". If a race does not fill, naturally it can't go, so the racing secretary does what he has to do to insure that doesn't happen. So lets' investigate this further and I'll start with the "OR NW4L" part of the condition. How many horses qualify for this race on the "OR NW4L" part of the condition? ANSWER: ALL, except one. In fact, one of these horses has just 2 wins. How many horses in this race "qualify" on the basic condition, "NW1X"? ANSWER: JUST ONE Who is the one horse that gets into the race on the basic condition? ANSWER: The WINNER! it is the only horse in the race with more than 3 wins.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
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09-16-2013, 07:54 PM | #37 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Tim
Hi Tim
Can you check the race your referring to I don't see any $28.00 dollar winners in my DB for race 1 on a Sunday for awhile I wonder if you mean this winner from Saturday 9/14 race 1 Thanks Bill Last edited by Bill V.; 09-16-2013 at 08:00 PM. |
09-16-2013, 08:24 PM | #38 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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Quote:
As to your question, no, I never look back to see if there has been a similar situation for a horse. I would NOT have given the horse a line THEN and, as you can see, I did NOT give the horse a line now. And I especially would not consider going back to that old line and giving it to the horse today. That was then...this is now. I have no way to determine that I can safely assume the horse is ready to run back to that old line. Statisically, the horse has a 5% chance of winning. I prefer to stay with the 95%'ers. Here's the thing. The worst that can happen is, I lose a race to a horse that has been off more than 90 days, IF I happen to be in that particular race. On the other hand, I DON'T lose a lot of races betting ON horses that have been off for more than 90 days. And better than that, I don't miss winners that I should have by playing a horse off more than 90 days. I also don't have horses off more than 90 days among my contenders, muddying the water. For those who may have missed the race being discussed, go back to page 3.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
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09-16-2013, 08:43 PM | #39 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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guidelines
FTL, was looking at MNR tonight in the 4th race. The 1/5 favorite was off 338 days. He failed to hit the board.
Thought you would appreciate the prices across the board on the win place & show horse. My read outs are included. rmath I bet the 4 & 5 to win |
09-16-2013, 09:22 PM | #40 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Days
Kind of reminds me of "if I use line 4"
Hi Tim Ok I see what is going on here. As Doc says the conditions of the race and your records will often help with decisions The conditions of the race from Parx were you went back to line 4 are... Claiming $7,500 but for non winners of a race in 6 months However horses who have won for less than $5000 are eligible. Anyway these races are for not the cream of the crop $7500 is just 1 step up from the few $5000 claimers they run at Parx Lets look at the lines. Line 1 and 3 are from 7 furlongs. Today's distance is 8.5 I have no problem skipping over them as they are non comparable- although line 1 is a + race. Line 2 is interesting, Line 2 is a CL$7500 but for non winners of 2 races in 6 months, These races are much harder than the CL7500 N1-6M because horses have won recently, were as in the non 1 in 6 months a horse has not unless it won for under $5000. The Laurels was 2.40/1 in the tougher non winner of 2 condition. It was second choice in the betting in that race. So besides the distance of 7 furlongs the race in line two could be excused for class too high. Lastly as far as the days of 124 Well these are non winners in 6 months, I would rather see a horse like this if I was to go back 124 days with valid excuse, then a race that is not time eligibility restricted Bill |
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