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2016 Friday & Saturday Nov 4/5 - Santa Anita

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Old 11-18-2016, 11:15 PM   #11
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Rather then insulting pepole, show us that you are more than a blowhard who loves to hear themseleves talk. I will donate $500 to the charity of your choice if you play $200 per weekend throughout December on this board and are profitable for the month. You risk not a dime. Do you accept?
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Old 11-18-2016, 11:41 PM   #12
Bill V.
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Hey Guys

Please can we keep things "The Pace and Cap" way and work to help each
other win in a friendly way. Name calling is not what helps us

My feelings , contest play and daily grinding in the real world are two different animals. Winning a contest could be because you figured "what the heck" But then again, I believe that hard work gets rewarded.

" Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity"

Good Skill
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Old 11-19-2016, 06:01 AM   #13
Tim Y
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Wagers SHOULD be based on CLOSING ODDS, at least that is the way I have played the game since the middle 70's. One can only suggest where the overlays will be, but they MAY, or MAY not, meet the criteria for a GOOD WAGER as opposed to being a logical HANDICAPPING choice. Exotics are less dependent on them as the order of finish can negate them.

This game has TWO sides: Prioritizing the animals based upon LOGICAL aspects as to what your records show work at a particular track, surface or class, and THEN, WHOLLY DIFFERENT, is the evaluation of the MARKET offered on those initial assertions.

The TWO sides can ONLY be rectified at the time of the race. It is folly to suggest that anytime more than about 2 minutes before the race, ANYONE can logically and repeatedly point out the possible OVERLAYS in that contest as the crowd probabilities (odds) are in flux. A great theoretical wager on Friday evening may be a total underlay come post time Saturday.

ANYONE who is proficient at the game in the long run, realizes this dichotomy and waits for his/her spot, rather than stick with possible underlays that may well reflect proper handicapping for that race.

Handicapping is NOT wagering. Wagering is NOT handicapping. They require completely different modus operandi (like the old idea of left brain right brain functions). The TYPE of wager on any particular race is arrived at differently based upon the odds of that contest. Those odds are NOT available well in advance of the race.

My only adversary is the CROWD and how they see the contest relative to my interpretation. They have no idea that randomness is controlling their outcomes.
Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."

Last edited by Tim Y; 11-19-2016 at 06:03 AM.
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Old 11-19-2016, 09:23 AM   #14
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I'm reasonable.. Bet anytime, we will use posting time vs Off Time in Equibase charts. Any modifications time stamped after Equibase off time will result in loss. We all know you are one of the elite 10% players that are profitable so this should be an easy $500 for the charity of your choice or you can keep it but you seem like an honorable and charitable guy so I doubt that would be the case.

Just understand the reason I have a bug up my ass is I really don't respect those horse players that disparage other horse players. It is a tough hobby that we have and we all are fighting to be in that 10% and quite frankly I have never met one of the 10% that is anything but respectful to other players after all you want to keep the other 90% in the game right so why disrespect them. As far as public handicappers go I can not think of a harder job than posting your opinion knowing that it isn't even the way you would play. See you have to appease your boss by having a high winning % because he has no appreciation that you can win 5% of the time and be WILDLY profitable in the game. The only way to be successful in this game is to understand that cashing tickets doesn't equate to being a profitable player. Win Quality trumps () win quantity. The tools that Tim has provided us continue to identify those situations.

Last edited by jms62; 11-19-2016 at 09:35 AM.
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Old 09-26-2018, 03:07 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by Tim Y View Post
Wagers SHOULD be based on CLOSING ODDS, at least that is the way I have played the game since the middle 70's.
Just came into this thread, and this is a bit of a misleading comment. Wagers SHOULD be based on the odds as close to gate load as possible, as the closing odds become final as the race is in progress. Since we can't "lock in" our bets during the actual running of a race, this is the best we can do. This is why value boys like Meadow, Mitchell, etc., preach demanding a premium on your acceptable odds, so that you're not as impacted by the final tote swing than you would if you didn't demand a premium. Of course, a horse could be outside of the acceptable odds/premium odds range as they are loading, and might go off above the premium... it happens. Again, until fixed odds betting becomes prevalent in the North American racing game, there are going to be times where late tote action torches us.
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