Pacelines...Again!

[JeffH]

I have read the followups, the paceline manual, and a bunch of threads regarding paceline selection. The paceline manual says to always use last race unless there's a valid reason not to (wrong surface, distance, class, etc.). Then in a followup, it says to use the best of last 3 at a comparable distance and surface. Bill V, in a thread of his, says he uses best adjusted speed rating in last 3 where finished within 7.5 lengths of winner. I know the methodology has no rules; but in order to get consistent results, consistent paceline selection is mandatory. Consistent paceline selection requires consistent procedures "rules". If anybody would like to comment on their paceline selection procedure and success, I would like to hear it. I have been using the demo software; and have downloaded several cards; but to this point, I am not picking the correct paclines as often as I should be.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by JeffH

I have read the followups, the paceline manual, and a bunch of threads regarding paceline selection. The paceline manual says to always use last race unless there's a valid reason not to (wrong surface, distance, class, etc.). Then in a followup, it says to use the best of last 3 at a comparable distance and surface. Bill V, in a thread of his, says he uses best adjusted speed rating in last 3 where finished within 7.5 lengths of winner. I know the methodology has no rules; but in order to get consistent results, consistent paceline selection is mandatory. Consistent paceline selection requires consistent procedures "rules". If anybody would like to comment on their paceline selection procedure and success, I would like to hear it. I have been using the demo software; and have downloaded several cards; but to this point, I am not picking the correct paclines as often as I should be.

A VERY GOOD post.
I will assume that you are new to the methodology and trying your best to get a handle on the best procedure for line selection, right from the horses (Doc) mouth.

I got started with the Sartin Methodology about 25 years ago when the ONLY "guideline" for picking pace lines was "THE LAST LINE IS THE LINE UNLESS FOR SOME GOOD REASON YOU HAVE TO GO BACK". Now, the next thing was, how far do you go back? The answer was, to the VERY NEXT LINE. If for some GOOD reason THAT LINE was not usable, then you go BACK ONE LINE.

There was never anything that told you to start right off by picking pace line #10!
There was never anything that told you to bypass a good line in favor of a better line down the list.

The reason the last line is the line, is because it is the most recent piece of information on the horses current form.

Having said that, does that mean you take the last line if the horse ran dead last around the track, even if the race was at the same distance surface? NO!

Let's say a horse wins a race 2 back, then jumps up in class and runs a very dull race. Today the horse comes back down to the level were it won 2 back. Is the line two back acceptable? YES!

I have found that the original "guidelines" have served me well right from the beginning.
Have I ever tinkered with line selection? Well, I'm human, so the answer is "yes". Have I every found anything to be better than the original "guideline"? NO.

I agree with you. The WORST thing about the methodology, as well as the single thing most embraced by a large number of methodologists, is the idea that there are no rules.

Personally, my line selection is automated. In automating my line selections, the LAST LINE IS THE LINE, UNLESS THERE IS A REASON TO GO BACK ONE LINE.
This is coupled with the "RULE" that I will not use any horse that hasn't run in the last 90 days. WHY? Because 95% of all winners have run a race in the last 90 days. I will not use any pace line that is more than 90 days old. For a horse in training, they will generally run 3 to 5 races during that period of time. If you can't get a line for a horse during that time period over that number of races, perhaps it is time to THROW THAT HORSE OUT!

The largest percentage of winners can be gotten right off their last line where the last line is applicable.
The next largest percentage of winners come from use of the second line back. The further back you have to go for a line, the lower the win percentage.

I would suggest going back and re-reading that which you already read. Not many people have a problem picking a paceline where the horse ran 1st, 2nd or 3rd. Doc stated that a horse that shows early speed and backs up is telling you that is is coming into form. USE THAT LINE.

The best lines to use are those that represent how the horse runs.
For the best results from the software you use, you want to have a mixture of early types, presser types and sustained types.
For the best results in keeping models, results from races with a good mixture of the above types will provide you with meaningful models. Models that will show which of these types are performing best at your track at various distances and surfaces.

I don't know why you feel you are not picking correct pacelines, but picking the "correct" paceline does NOT necessarily mean the "correct" horse (the winner) will be at the top!

Picking a line for an early speed type that backed up will in all likelihood put the horse below the top couple of spots on your bl/bl, but that doesn't mean the horse won't win or that the paceline you used was not correct.

Good Luck!

[JeffH]

Thanks for the response. Yes I am new to the methodology, having started about the 20th of August. I'm trying to get the winner in my top 5 contenders 90% or more of the time. I am also downloading 5 tracks or so each day I have time to. I have used the demo races a ton; and have picked different pacelines 4 or 5 times. I pick my pacelines and reduce the number of contenders to 5. I then use the BL/BL to tier them. Then I check the results. I think I'm confusing myself to be honest-trying too hard.
I've done so many races trying different things, I don't remember what works and what doesn't. I need to FOCUS on doing ONE thing, check the results, then try something else-if I need to. If what I'm doing works, keep doing it.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by JeffH

Thanks for the response. Yes I am new to the methodology, having started about the 20th of August. I'm trying to get the winner in my top 5 contenders 90% or more of the time. I am also downloading 5 tracks or so each day I have time to. I have used the demo races a ton; and have picked different pacelines 4 or 5 times. I pick my pacelines and reduce the number of contenders to 5. I then use the BL/BL to tier them. Then I check the results. I think I'm confusing myself to be honest-trying too hard.
I've done so many races trying different things, I don't remember what works and what doesn't. I need to FOCUS on doing ONE thing, check the results, then try something else-if I need to. If what I'm doing works, keep doing it.

Just one more thought.

The RDSS software is good and Ted does a great job with it.
I think my own software is good, which was written by my son and myself.
But software is software and it doesn't mean much if you don't know how to pick good pace lines on a consistent basis.
My suggestion to you would be to use Doc's original thoughts on pace line selection and use some common sense.
I don't know if you have any handicapping knowledge or experience, but if you do and it is solid, apply it.

[Charlie D]

Hi JeffH

Welcome aboard the Paceandcap ship.



Library> Audio Collection> Las Vegas Seminar 91 > Tape 9_2 and Tape 9_3 may be of help.


All the best.

[Charlie D]

Some demonstrations here that may be of help too.

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5301

[tleusin]

Pace line selection may be the most personal and differentiating part of the methodology. To put it simply you have to find out what works for you and for the track(s) you play. I play the lower level tracks primarily (CT, Mnr, RP,etc) and find that the best of the last three is generally the best for me. That being said I have no problem going deeper for too many reasons to number. I wont use grass for dirt ( or vice versa) or poly for anything but poly. I will generally not use any horse that has not raced in the past 90 days...unless i see that this horse has had success doing it in the past.
I also do not eliminate down to 5 horses. I prefer to look at all horse's ratings and compare. I do eliminate all but the best maiden line in a race for winners. I have other rules that I generally follow but not a single rule that I follow slavishly.
I agree that listening to the audios is worthwhile. I found it more so than the follow ups, but that like pace line selection is a personal thing. Keep notes of both how and why you chose a pace line as well as the factors that matter at your track(s). This was one of the hardest and yet most productive exercises that I did.
Hope this was helpfull.

[JeffH]

Thanks for the input everyone. I did watch the videos-the Mountaineer races done by RichieP were classic. Very informative, and very funny! I haven't listened to the audios suggested, so I will do that next. I am not new to handicapping; but I am new to this methodology. I don't think I'm very far from where I want to be. I just need to develop my own style using the tools provided. Any other opinions or suggestions are appreciated!!

[wagercapper]

I started with the methodology about 26 years ago. You have to find out what works for you. As for using line 10, Doc once told me "try it, see if you get any winners".
In general, we're supposed to use line(s) that predict how the horse will run TODAY against TODAY's competition.
If that's line 1, 5, or 10, so be it.