Oaklawn Race 5 - Friday 2/9

[Jeebs]

For the odds, I felt 6-5 were getting good bang for my buck and spread the wealth betting both. I thought that the winner was going to be more forwardly placed, but instead let the #8 and non-contender #7 hang themselves. #6 never got rolling today. Made a few bucks. Good race. Congrats to those who cashed!

[Jeebs]

Apologies for the large screenshots last post. Cut/paste from my phone and it sent it as a high res.

[Mitch44]

Nice analysis Jeebs and always nice to make a profit. I wouldn't have put that much in but can argue or contest success. Congrats!!
Mitch44

[Lt1]

5 was at 7/2 with about 1 min to post the lowest of my top 4. Also the 5 &10[ the old Woolworths Dept stores angle lol ] were the only ones with wins over the track. Exacta pd $24,40 for a buck so I took a small $7.60 loss. 50 cent tri was ok $86.25.
Tim

[Lt1]

Nice job Tim. This was a fun race.

[Jeebs]

Originally Posted by partsnut

Hi Jeebs,


The (10) is coming off of 142 days but looks like he might be there if he runs his race.

Good call, Bill. He was indeed there, but the down time probably left him a tad short in the fitness department in those final yards. Next time!

[mick]

Originally Posted by Lt1

Also the 5 &10 [ the old Woolworths Dept stores angle lol ] were the only ones with wins over the track.
Tim

Yes, sir. I remember the old Woolworths Dept store angle. And of course, there's the Dr. Pepper angle - 10, 2 and 4.

That was good, Tim.

[Rverge]

Originally Posted by Lt1

5 was at 7/2 with about 1 min to post the lowest of my top 4. Also the 5 &10[ the old Woolworths Dept stores angle lol ] were the only ones with wins over the track. Exacta pd $24,40 for a buck so I took a small $7.60 loss. 50 cent tri was ok $86.25.
Tim

also called them "murfs" (murphys 5 & 10)

[Lt1]

Good ones Mick and Rverge.
TIM

[For The Lead]

First things first.
Congratulations, JEEBS, on having the winner.

Thanks for posting the PP’s. That allows me to comment.

The first thing is, I think this is a terrible race. (sorry Mick, we all have opinions) Why do I say that?
If you just look at the last two races for each horse there are 8 different tracks in play. Couple that with all the various class levels and conditions at each of those tracks, it makes for a chaotic mess.

The second thing is, this is not a standard claiming race. It is a “waiver” claiming race.


For those who do not know what that is, here is a link to the post I wrote about it.
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10855

OK. Now to the guidelines.

I agree that the 2,9 and 10 get eliminated for being OFF more than 90 days.
I also agree the 7 and 11 get eliminated for their ML being 20/1.
Now I will look at the remaining horses for line selection.

#1 – last line. It is a “+” race where the horse ran 3rd 19 days ago across today’s track.
#3 – line 3. JEEBS missed this one. It is a “+” race where the horse ran 2nd. Both lines 1 and line 2 were at the $12,500 claiming level where today the race is at the $8,000 level. I don’t like line 3, but it is the only other line in the last 90 days. It is a 5f race, which I don’t like, but it is within 1 furlong of today’s distance.
#4 – No line.
#5 – line 3. It is a “+” race where the horse ran 2nd. It is a 7f race and I don’t like that either, but it is within 1 furlong of today’s distance. The horse only shows four sprint races. One on the turf (throw it out) another at DeD, a “bullring” track (throw it out) a third at 6f at the ALW NW1X class level where it ran poorly (throw it out) and the 7f race, which is line 3. I dismiss how the horse ran in route races. Today the distance is 6f. That DOES NOT mean the horse will go to the lead as it did at 7f, but it’s all there is to use.
#6 – No line. JEEBS got it wrong. The only line to consider is the last line. In that line the horse did NOT run 1st, 2nd or 3rd. It did NOT run first or second at the first and/or second calls. The horse did NOT make up ground between the first and second calls to be withing 2 lengths of the leader at the second call.
#8 – last line. It is a “(+)” line. The horse fought for the lead at both the first and second calls. The race was 27 days ago across today’s track.

So, we are left with #’s 1, 3, 5 and 8 horses as contenders.
Just to be clear, these horses do NOT represent the “top 4”. They are the ONLY 4.
This is the starting point.
By the way JEEBS, Ted didn’t say that, I did.
#5 wins paying $11.20

It is my opinion that these types of lines should never be used. They represent nothing. NOT early, NOT presser, Not sustained. They were just “in the race”.