Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > General Discussion
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

General Discussion General Horse Racing Discussion

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 04-19-2019, 08:34 AM   #1
rdiam
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
Classifying a Race

As most are aware, bet structure for a particular race is highly dependent on how strong the contenders are matched up with each other and the rest of the field. Per Mannetter's "Bet Smart, Win Big", the first step is to classify a race as to either Predictable, likely to be won by the favorite or another low odds (< 4-1) horse, or Open, likely to be won by a horse 4-1 or higher with a vulnerable favorite or horse going off 3-1 or below.

For those looking for a mechanical method to classify a race in this manner, he suggests using the morning line. Yes, I know it is seriously flawed and subject to the skill of the ML maker, but disciples of Sartin will remember he uses the ML in many of his filters.

Basically, if the favorites' ML is 2-1 or below, classify the race as Predictable. If the favorites' ML is above 2-1, classify the race as Open. That's it.


In Predictable races, you need to focus on horizontal and vertical type bets to find +EV, as the low odds horses will likely be win bet underlays due to rebate syndicates involvement. In Open races, you should be betting to win on contenders going off 4-1 or higher. If you have more than 2 bets like this you should probably pass since there is something going on with the race that you or your computer program don't understand. Also, in open races, you can combine your higher odds contenders with each other in vertical and horizontal exotics.


Lastly, in OPEN races, you will NOT want to back up you win bets with place bets as Sartin recommended. Here is another area where the math provides a more optimal solution. Place (and show) bets on horses whose win odds are greater than 4-1 are likely to be underlays since they will probably be sharing the pool with low odds winners who will dilute the place and show prices. You are better off betting the top 2-3 public favorites in an exacta on top over the horses you are looking to back up to place rather than a place bet itself. That is the math of it.


Richard
rdiam is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-19-2019, 08:46 AM   #2
mick
Abiding Student
 
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
Good post. Thanks, Richard.
__________________
mick

Illustrated Glossary
mick is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Ky Derby PP's & Analysis Mitch44 Races of Interest 24 05-05-2018 07:31 PM
Adjustments Question Ted Craven RDSS2 / FAQ's 3 06-29-2014 03:22 PM
UPDATED - Official Contest Rules, beginning AUGUST Ted Craven August Contest 1 07-24-2012 10:09 PM
Del Mar Race 9 Bill V. General Discussion 2 07-23-2012 09:40 PM
Wagercapping - Follow Up Articles Ted Craven Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum 19 03-22-2010 06:06 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:35 AM.