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Old 04-07-2017, 10:17 AM   #1
Jeebs
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Boutique Meets - Best approach?

Keeneland starts up today. Shippers from all over the place descend upon Lexington for the next 3 weeks. Even with a consistent paceline/contender procedure, is it even worth following/selecting/betting considering all the variables at play?
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Old 04-07-2017, 11:02 AM   #2
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Although I don't like these boutique meets when and if I decide to play there I just stick to my way of capping for any race. You must be consistent in your approach. In this case I do have a model from last yr, so even though I know it may not reflect what will happen this yr, it is a starting point. I have found that when tracks only run short meets my models do tend to hold up from the previous yr. I will however start with smaller bets until I get a handle on what's happening now.
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Old 04-07-2017, 11:57 AM   #3
mick
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Years ago, Dr. Bill Quirin wrote, "The universal track bias is early speed." That's especially true of the Keeneland dirt. Sustained horses seldom get up. In that regard, it's like a West Coast track but with full fields.
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Old 04-07-2017, 12:23 PM   #4
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Funny

Funny story , one of the guys I hang with at Del Mar makes his living signing tickets
He is a lousy handicapper , but everybody wants him in the group for some reason wink ,

Anyway last year opening day or weekend he asks me for my selections
for a pick 3

We hit the first leg with a big long shot but it was not one of my selections
Anyway we hit the pick 3 it paid like 700 I never made another bet there
Got out on top :-)

DOC loved the placed, And Ihave have visited it but they were not running live at the time. It is a beautiful place .
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Old 04-07-2017, 12:37 PM   #5
mick
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Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
Funny story , one of the guys I hang with at Del Mar makes his living signing tickets
He is a lousy handicapper , but everybody wants him in the group for some reason wink ,

Anyway last year opening day or weekend he asks me for my selections
for a pick 3

We hit the first leg with a big long shot but it was not one of my selections
Anyway we hit the pick 3 it paid like 700 I never made another bet there
Got out on top :-)

DOC loved the placed, And Ihave have visited it but they were not running live at the time. It is a beautiful place .
Bill,

Speaking of Del Mar, that's next on my list. Woodbine last year, Saratoga this year, and Del Mar next year. (After 20+ years on the bench, I can't tell you how much I love retirement.)
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Old 04-07-2017, 12:58 PM   #6
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Keeneland 2nd race

Jeebs,

Keeneland's 2nd race today might be informative. #2 "Rhodium" is an E8 with a 3-point speed advantage over #1 (P5) and a 5-point advantage over #3 (EP3). My Segments screen shows #2 with a two-length lead at the second call, but getting caught by #1 in the third fraction and losing by more than a length.

#2 is shipping from Oaklawn, dropping from an OC40K/n2x, and has a decent gate jockey in Rafael Hernandez. It will be interesting to see how far she can go. In years past, a mare with those credentials would take the early lead and keep right on going, winning by opening lengths. We'll see. I don't think there's any value in this race, so I won't be betting. But watching can be good, too.
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Old 04-07-2017, 01:16 PM   #7
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Jeebs,

Keeneland's 2nd race today might be informative. #2 "Rhodium" is an E8 with a 3-point speed advantage over #1 (P5) and a 5-point advantage over #3 (EP3). My Segments screen shows #2 with a two-length lead at the second call, but getting caught by #1 in the third fraction and losing by more than a length.

#2 is shipping from Oaklawn, dropping from an OC40K/n2x, and has a decent gate jockey in Rafael Hernandez. It will be interesting to see how far she can go. In years past, a mare with those credentials would take the early lead and keep right on going, winning by opening lengths. We'll see. I don't think there's any value in this race, so I won't be betting. But watching can be good, too.
Let me run this race real quick.
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Old 04-07-2017, 02:08 PM   #8
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So, two races into the meet and favorites on the lead have won easily. Frankly, that could happen at most tracks. Now, we look for a non-favorite on the lead and see how far he can go.
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Old 04-08-2017, 05:54 PM   #9
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Bombs away...

A big thanks to Mick... this just happened...

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That, is what we refer to in NY, as a BANG!
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Old 04-08-2017, 08:40 PM   #10
mick
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Congratulations, Jeebs!

Jeebs, that's GREAT! We call that a BOMB in Kentucky, but we understand BANG, too.

And in the very next race, the Blue Grass, Irap, a maiden, never more than half a length off the lead, wins and pays $64.60.

I had neither but I'm glad you had one of them.

I didn't attend the Breeders' Cup at Keeneland, but today was as crowded as I have ever seen the place. I'm back at the hotel now, looking forward to a good night's sleep. And tomorrow, I get to do it again, but with a lot fewer people there.

Congratulations!
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