WOX 11-03-07 ( Race - 2) - Pace and Cap

partsnut · 11-03-2007, 02:48 PM

WOX 11-03-07 ( Race - 2) Polytrack

I did this race last night using Thoromation.
I did posted this race but not here on this site.

From what I'm led to believe and correct me if I'm wrong, Jimmy Bradshaws wife used Thoromation religiously and had good results with it.
I have to agree with her. This program is all you need to use if you can get the right contenders and pacelines.
I find that most of the new software is redundant and is a modern day re-hash of what was once the state of the art software and in my opinion still is.

RichieP · 11-03-2007, 03:14 PM

Beautiful hit Bill!
I especially like your line choices man. Line 5 for the winner

Just got off the phone with Jimmy. LeRoi used Thoromation for a while and did well when Jimmy marked the pacelines in the Form for her to enter into it.

He said she really caught fire on her own when she used his Aodds program right out of the box.

Hope all is well. Stay cool
Richie

admin · 11-03-2007, 03:25 PM

Hello Bill

I'm happy you got the nice win

GS
Bill

Turbulator · 11-03-2007, 05:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by partsnut

WOX 11-03-07 ( Race - 2) Polytrack

I did this race last night using Thoromation...

I find that most of the new software is redundant and is a modern day re-hash of what was once the state of the art software and in my opinion still is.

I have a couple of questions:

1. Where can I get this Thoromation. I'd like to try it.
2. How do you know which pace line to enter?
3. Once you've entered your pace lines, how do you know which horse to bet?
4. Are you betting one horse or two horses to win?

Thanks

partsnut · 11-03-2007, 08:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turbulator

I have a couple of questions:

1. Where can I get this Thoromation. I'd like to try it.
2. How do you know which pace line to enter?
3. Once you've entered your pace lines, how do you know which horse to bet?
4. Are you betting one horse or two horses to win?

1 -There are many on this board that would volunteer a copy.
The only way you'll get a copy if someone is willing to give it to you.
It's no longer for sale.
2 - I use one specific program to isolate my contenders.
There are programs like Yeast or the Bris PP generator works very well.
3 - My screenshots will show you this.
4 - I bet one horse and in my opinion betting 2 horses is totally ridiculous as well as exotics. When you bet 2 horses you are defeating yourself and diminishing your profit potential. Uncertainty and lack of confidence in what you are using will cause you to bet 2 horses. It is just as easy and less costly to get 3 for 10 bets as opposed to getting 6 wins out of 20 bets.

You may ask yourself why I did not use Why N as an early contender.
The reason being that the Thoromation and Pre-Play screen did not indicate this horse as a contender.

I would not suggest playing into Polytracks as I did today. Dirt tracks are where it's at and they are more predictable.
Polytracks are hit and miss.

Turbulator · 11-03-2007, 08:49 PM

Thank you for that explanation.

Quote:

Originally Posted by partsnut

1 -There are many on this board that would volunteer a copy.
The only way you'll get a copy if someone is willing to give it to you.
It's no longer for sale.

OK. I take it you have to manually enter pace lines?

Quote:

2 - I use one specific program to isolate my contenders.
There are programs like Yeast or the Bris PP generator works very well.

So if I understand you right, you are using a program other than Thoromation to isolate contenders, and then you use Thoromation to make your bets? Is Thoromation bad at isolating contenders?

Quote:

4 - I bet one horse and in my opinion betting 2 horses is totally ridiculous as well as exotics. When you bet 2 horses you are defeating yourself and diminishing your profit potential. Uncertainty and lack of confidence in what you are using will cause you to bet 2 horses. It is just as easy and less costly to get 3 for 10 bets as opposed to getting 6 wins out of 20 bets.

I don't necessarily agree with the "defeating yourself" statement, but I understand your sentiment completely . I do believe however, that winning 3 out of 10 betting one horse or 6 out of 20 betting 2 horses works out the same mathematically.

I don't think it would be progressive for me to get involved with a program that is no longer in production--especially one that requires manual data entry--if that is the case. However, you have piqued my interest with your contender selection process, and I would be very interested in hearing more about that.

Thanks,

partsnut · 11-03-2007, 11:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turbulator

Thank you for that explanation.

OK. I take it you have to manually enter pace lines?

So if I understand you right, you are using a program other than Thoromation to isolate contenders, and then you use Thoromation to make your bets? Is Thoromation bad at isolating contenders?

I don't necessarily agree with the "defeating yourself" statement, but I understand your sentiment completely . I do believe however, that winning 3 out of 10 betting one horse or 6 out of 20 betting 2 horses works out the same mathematically.

I don't think it would be progressive for me to get involved with a program that is no longer in production--especially one that requires manual data entry--if that is the case. However, you have piqued my interest with your contender selection process, and I would be very interested in hearing more about that.

Thanks,

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote:

OK. I take it you have to manually enter pace lines?

Actually this is not the case. I use AOdds to pick my pacelines
and convert the files to be used in Thoromation so all I have to do is load the converted file. There is no manual input involved.

Quote:

So if I understand you right, you are using a program other than Thoromation to isolate contenders, and then you use Thoromation to make your bets? Is Thoromation bad at isolating contenders?

Thoromation is only good with 4 or 5 lines at most.
Bris PP Generator will give you the option of which horses to use as contenders and what pacelines to pick,
I use thoromation to determine the race shape and for isolating my single pick.

Quote:

I don't necessarily agree with the "defeating yourself" statement, but I understand your sentiment completely . I do believe however, that winning 3 out of 10 betting one horse or 6 out of 20 betting 2 horses works out the same mathematically.

When you bet 2 horses you are deflating the actual payout when you do have a winner. You also chance losing 2 bets in a race as opposed to a single bet. Your money will go further betting one horse as opposed to two.
and you will receive full odds for your winners betting one horse as opposed
to reduced payout when you bet two. Ex. take a 7-2 horse and a 9-2 horse.
Great the 9-2 horse wins so you get back $11.00 for 4.00 bet. Your profit is $ 7.00 on $ 4.00 wagered. Your return is $1.75 for a $1.00. Thats about 9-5. Think about this. The lower the odds go the less you'll make. How much of a bankroll would you need to sustain a protracted losing streak? If your waiting for the bomb that may happen one in 20 races.

Quote:

However, you have piqued my interest with your contender selection process, and I would be very interested in hearing more about that.

If you know how to handicap then I would recommend the BRIS Custom PP Generator. It's free from BRIS and the files will cost you just one buck.
The file can be used with a multitude of different programs.
Your contenders and pacelines should not be a problem.

admin · 11-04-2007, 06:17 AM

Thank you for you excellent work,and presentation here
I appreciate you sharing this on Pace an Cap

I have some thoughts

In your race example in a race you have called early
The winner silver owns the 100 in the 2nd fraction
This is a spot play that Doc recommends in the LV seminar
tapes Its a very powerful readout

In regards to your choice to bet 1 horse
I think your explanation is good and accurate,
For myself I have been 2 horse betting and keeping 20 race cycles
since 1997

The results I get are very consistant You are correct in that without a few winners the pay over 9/1 the 20 race cycles ten to break even or show just a small loss or profit

For me and funny Doc mentioned it to me in my last call
"Bill your problem is that at some point in each cycle you miss
one or more of those big overlays" This is what is causing you
to doubt your ability"

Therefore is it a betting method issue or is it a personal issue
That I am unable to fully focus on the races and do I trust ny readouts ?

I am here to get better So i will admit that I do blow a few
races for this reason

I just did a test that Doc said he often also would do
I picked at random a 20 race sheet cycle
this is what my results were

Code:

 
Race 1 loss   winner paid $4,20 in tier 4
Race 2 loss winner not on sheet -I made it a non contender
Race 3 loss    winner paid $3.80
Race 4 win    winner paid $27.40 tier 2 
Race 5 win    winner paid $8.60   tier 1
Race 6 loss   winner paid  $8.00  tier 4
Race 7 loss   winner paid  $8.60   tier 4 
Race 8 loss   winner paid  $10.80  tier4
Race 9 win   winner paid   $9.00  tier 1
Race10 win   winner paid  $7.80  tier 1 
Race11 loss   winner paid $6.40  tier 3 
Race12 win   Winner paid $6.40  tier 1 
Race13 Loss  winner not in the top 5 
Race14 Loss  winner not in the top 5 
Race15 Win   winner tier 3  $8.40  tier 3
Race16 loss   winner paid $3.80  tier 
Race17 Win   winner paid $6.80  tier 1
Race18 Win   winner paid $9.40  tier 3
Race19 Loss  winner not in the top 5 
Race20 Win  winner $20.20  tier 3

Pulling a random DWF _decision wager form It is interesting , I can see why Doc asked clients to send them in
I have no idea when I did this cycle there are no dates or tracks
because ther are no places on the DWF were Doc asks this info
so I didn't enter it
From this DWF i can see I was not hiding low price horses
race 3 and 16 tell me this
I took a $6.40 winner in race12 might have been bet down late

anyway I did get two 9/1 plus winners in the cycle
Race 4 and race 20

total bet 20 races 2 #2 win bets each = $80
total wins 9
total wins $104.00

This cycle is very common for me
I very rarley get over 12 winners
11 is good for me 10 and 9 almost always
And almost every time those over 9/1 horses make the profit
I miss them I loss usually about no more than $10 for the cycle
I will stick with it

here is my current 20 race cycle

Code:

 
Race1  win $5,00 tier 3 
Race2  loss  NOS
Race3 winner$10.00 Tier3 
Race4  winner $8.60 Tier 1 
Race5  Loss tier 1  $4,20
Race6 winner $28,00  tier 3  finger lakes see screen shot
Race7 loss Tier 4 winner paid $7.80

This winner at Fingerlakes Prime Diamond tier 3 is a good profit maker

partsnut · 11-04-2007, 08:43 AM

admin

Quote:

Thank you for you excellent work,and presentation here
I appreciate you sharing this on Pace an Cap

Bill, I have always respected and liked you. You have done quite a bit to help people win. You have unselfishly given lots of your time in an effort to help others. I really appreciate that.

Quote:

In your race example in a race you have called early
The winner silver owns the 100 in the 2nd fraction
This is a spot play that Doc recommends in the LV seminar
tapes Its a very powerful readout

Yes, this type of horse (DPH) the designated place horse can be a very strong play depending on how he matches up with other variables.

Quote:

In regards to your choice to bet 1 horse
I think your explanation is good and accurate,
For myself I have been 2 horse betting and keeping 20 race cycles
since 1997

The results I get are very consistant You are correct in that without a few winners the pay over 9/1 the 20 race cycles ten to break even or show just a small loss or profit

I would never fault what works for you or anyone else. I know that you are very strong with most of the Sartin software. I do however feel, that you are selling yourself short by betting 2 horses however successful you might be. It seems that Dr. Sartin Implemented the 2 horse betting method because of his software did not have the ability to isolate a single winner.
This practice has been implemented in the new software as well.
The low return one may get from betting two horse might causes many to be disatisfied might tend to move them torwards exacta and exotics play which in my opinion is disasterous. Two horse betting shows me a total lack of confidence in the software and methods that one might use.
In my opinion, there are very few that will or can acquire your knowledge.
I myself feel that modeling is a waste of time. It really doesn't prove anything. The bottom line is how much of an ROI you will realize betting either one or two horses. How much money you put at risk in order to obtain your results, whatever they may be.

Quote:

For me and funny Doc mentioned it to me in my last call
"Bill your problem is that at some point in each cycle you miss
one or more of those big overlays" This is what is causing you
to doubt your ability"

Bill please do not take offense to my next statement.
It seems to me that "Doc" always has a reason ready for why you or anyone else was not achieving their goal. He was a master of taking information out of context and after the fact. There were many occasions where the man changed and altered his opinion downstream somewhat like a chameleon. I can also show you an article that was written by Tom Brohammer and how he depicted the "Doc". I don't think you would appreciate it. Sartin might be your role model but not mine.
Yes, despite my feeling personal torwards the man, I guess some good has been accomplished for a few and yes he was a great marketer.
I distain marketers as well. Especially the ones that do it covertly and under the guise of another concept. I resent trying to be brainwashed or sold. I hate being told that I can't do something and then the something that I was not allowed to do is in fact done by someone else and allowed for the benefit of the chosen few.

admin · 11-04-2007, 10:37 AM

You are so nice thank you

I feel that the two horse to win part of the methodology
was developed because in its early time the methodology was about
win percentage and teaching non winners to become winners.
The two horse betting plan helped eliminate losing streaks
Docs first group of clients were convicted truckers who
agreed to get therapy as a plea to get thier commercial drivers licenses back
Doc's was asigned this and he was not a handicapper
these guys had to win That was his job
"The cure for losing is winning"

It might be fact or some might thinkl it was marketing
all I know is what they sold works for this 2007 trucker
I would be in DEEP trouble if I did it any other way

I respect the many levels of ability all wageres here show
The contest and the giving of help shows me
how well many here can do

I look up to everyone

Thanks Bill

11-03-2007, 02:48 PM	#1
partsnut BetMix User Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,433	WOX 11-03-07 ( Race - 2) WOX 11-03-07 ( Race - 2) Polytrack I did this race last night using Thoromation. I did posted this race but not here on this site. From what I'm led to believe and correct me if I'm wrong, Jimmy Bradshaws wife used Thoromation religiously and had good results with it. I have to agree with her. This program is all you need to use if you can get the right contenders and pacelines. I find that most of the new software is redundant and is a modern day re-hash of what was once the state of the art software and in my opinion still is. Last edited by partsnut; 12-15-2007 at 05:10 AM.

11-03-2007, 03:25 PM	#3
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	nice job Hello Bill I'm happy you got the nice win GS Bill

11-04-2007, 06:17 AM	#8
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	Hello Bill Thank you for you excellent work,and presentation here I appreciate you sharing this on Pace an Cap I have some thoughts In your race example in a race you have called early The winner silver owns the 100 in the 2nd fraction This is a spot play that Doc recommends in the LV seminar tapes Its a very powerful readout In regards to your choice to bet 1 horse I think your explanation is good and accurate, For myself I have been 2 horse betting and keeping 20 race cycles since 1997 The results I get are very consistant You are correct in that without a few winners the pay over 9/1 the 20 race cycles ten to break even or show just a small loss or profit For me and funny Doc mentioned it to me in my last call "Bill your problem is that at some point in each cycle you miss one or more of those big overlays" This is what is causing you to doubt your ability" Therefore is it a betting method issue or is it a personal issue That I am unable to fully focus on the races and do I trust ny readouts ? I am here to get better So i will admit that I do blow a few races for this reason I just did a test that Doc said he often also would do I picked at random a 20 race sheet cycle this is what my results were Code: Race 1 loss winner paid $4,20 in tier 4 Race 2 loss winner not on sheet -I made it a non contender Race 3 loss winner paid $3.80 Race 4 win winner paid $27.40 tier 2 Race 5 win winner paid $8.60 tier 1 Race 6 loss winner paid $8.00 tier 4 Race 7 loss winner paid $8.60 tier 4 Race 8 loss winner paid $10.80 tier4 Race 9 win winner paid $9.00 tier 1 Race10 win winner paid $7.80 tier 1 Race11 loss winner paid $6.40 tier 3 Race12 win Winner paid $6.40 tier 1 Race13 Loss winner not in the top 5 Race14 Loss winner not in the top 5 Race15 Win winner tier 3 $8.40 tier 3 Race16 loss winner paid $3.80 tier Race17 Win winner paid $6.80 tier 1 Race18 Win winner paid $9.40 tier 3 Race19 Loss winner not in the top 5 Race20 Win winner $20.20 tier 3 Pulling a random DWF _decision wager form It is interesting , I can see why Doc asked clients to send them in I have no idea when I did this cycle there are no dates or tracks because ther are no places on the DWF were Doc asks this info so I didn't enter it From this DWF i can see I was not hiding low price horses race 3 and 16 tell me this I took a $6.40 winner in race12 might have been bet down late anyway I did get two 9/1 plus winners in the cycle Race 4 and race 20 total bet 20 races 2 #2 win bets each = $80 total wins 9 total wins $104.00 This cycle is very common for me I very rarley get over 12 winners 11 is good for me 10 and 9 almost always And almost every time those over 9/1 horses make the profit I miss them I loss usually about no more than $10 for the cycle I will stick with it here is my current 20 race cycle Code: Race1 win $5,00 tier 3 Race2 loss NOS Race3 winner$10.00 Tier3 Race4 winner $8.60 Tier 1 Race5 Loss tier 1 $4,20 Race6 winner $28,00 tier 3 finger lakes see screen shot Race7 loss Tier 4 winner paid $7.80 This winner at Fingerlakes Prime Diamond tier 3 is a good profit maker Attached Images

11-04-2007, 10:37 AM	#10
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	Hello Bill You are so nice thank you I feel that the two horse to win part of the methodology was developed because in its early time the methodology was about win percentage and teaching non winners to become winners. The two horse betting plan helped eliminate losing streaks Docs first group of clients were convicted truckers who agreed to get therapy as a plea to get thier commercial drivers licenses back Doc's was asigned this and he was not a handicapper these guys had to win That was his job "The cure for losing is winning" It might be fact or some might thinkl it was marketing all I know is what they sold works for this 2007 trucker I would be in DEEP trouble if I did it any other way I respect the many levels of ability all wageres here show The contest and the giving of help shows me how well many here can do I look up to everyone Thanks Bill

11-03-2007, 03:14 PM	#2
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Beautiful hit Bill! I especially like your line choices man. Line 5 for the winner Just got off the phone with Jimmy. LeRoi used Thoromation for a while and did well when Jimmy marked the pacelines in the Form for her to enter into it. He said she really caught fire on her own when she used his Aodds program right out of the box. Hope all is well. Stay cool Richie __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"