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Old 11-01-2011, 05:48 PM   #1
rmath
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New Pace

Today I was playing a few races at Finger Lakes.
Was holding my own until the last race, a mile & 70 , 4000 claimer with 10 entries after scratches. New pace had the 11 as E1 at 20 /1 , the 8 as E2 at 39/1. The 12 as L1 and 9/2 and the 1 at 3/5. I bet the 8 & 11 to win and place but since I try to avoid exactas , especially with an odds on horse that is my top vdc horse.
The 8 won and paid 80.50 to win and 56.50 to place, and the 11 placed and paid 12.00.
The exacta paid 787.50 for 1.00.After netting 141.00 on the race I was a little upset since the 1 horse ran third and the tri paid 2905.50 for 1.00.
I made a nice profit for the day and am very happy but I will have to rethink my playing of exactas when the odds are as high as they were today.
Good luck to all of you.
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Old 11-01-2011, 07:56 PM   #2
mikesal57
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Nice going Rich...


Its nice to be at the right place and the right time...
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Old 11-01-2011, 09:50 PM   #3
BJennet
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This could be the track

Congrats to Rich. Possibly this could be a track where NP could do well. Many chaos races, longshots, and weird results. I think a couple of other people have mentioned doing well here with NP. If anybody has some long-term results, would be interesting to see.
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Old 11-01-2011, 10:13 PM   #4
Ted Craven
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I just finished using this race as an example to someone moving from Validator to RDSS (i.e. where to find the various readouts). So I took a look at the NewPace numbers.

This is a good example of both the weaknesses and the strengths of NewPace: the high rankings can often come from performances some time ago, and often not likely to represent how the horse has run recently (and thus also, often, not today). On the other hand, if everyone looks bad enough, or there is sufficient confusion, sometimes these horses can run. Sometimes they don't. Knowing how to duck and dive, not bet too many horses, knowing how to pare down 4+ contenders to a bettable number when odds are offered - these are the skills to remaining alive (i.e. one's bankroll) until races like this one come up (and you're there to catch it).

I predict it will be merely anecdotal, if a short-term study of Finger Lakes proves any stronger for the NewPace approach than at any other track. I predict that the useful of NewPace will be in finding a way to limit the SR ranges to representative timeframes and using the numbers as corollaries to unrelated measurements such as velocity/deceleration and class (and not simply Final Time performance measurements). Perhaps somewhat analogously to how CR and APV hint at horses who have performed better in the past than recently, and if the odds are good enough, bear a 2nd look today. Otherwise, I am finding that NP numbers are > 70% co-related with what shows up on RDSS (BL/BL) anyway.

Ted
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Old 11-02-2011, 10:49 AM   #5
RonP
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Guys I am very new to RDSS. When you get into not only races but race cards with horses with so many bad running lines do you break any of the beaten lengths rules for letting a horse in? Do you pass it? Becasue the runners with decent running lines are going to be bet down but I am sure this race(s) will be chaos and prices will reflect that and I really don't want to miss some of the high payouts. In fact this is one of the reasons I have looked for and am using RDSS to help me here.
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Old 11-02-2011, 11:13 AM   #6
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Rich,
nice one!! Keep it up
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Old 11-02-2011, 12:49 PM   #7
Ted Craven
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RonP View Post
Guys I am very new to RDSS. When you get into not only races but race cards with horses with so many bad running lines do you break any of the beaten lengths rules for letting a horse in? Do you pass it? Becasue the runners with decent running lines are going to be bet down but I am sure this race(s) will be chaos and prices will reflect that and I really don't want to miss some of the high payouts. In fact this is one of the reasons I have looked for and am using RDSS to help me here.
Hi Ron,

Welcome to PaceandCap! Not sure if your question relates specifically to this NewPace thread (as NewPace does not rely on beaten lengths or good or bad performance for its primary readout). But perhaps more to the type of murky race rmath is speaking about.

You will certainly get better prices for poorer apparent recent performance. If everyone looks bad, everyone is on equal footing: go ahead and look for any signs of current form (broke sharply, ran close to leader up to 1st or 2nd call, made a gaining positional or beaten length move during a call, ran evenly, gained on leader 3+ wide around the turn even if faded in stretch, especially if ran evenly against a fast Pace of Pace).

All of the foregoing scenarios may result in the horse fading out of the money, beaten by possibly many beaten lengths. Or, they may have run on a different surface to today, or a poly surface at a different track to today's poly surface, etc. You mission is to decide if you want to be in such races, to subject yourself to the chaos, or if you should pass and look for races with more 'knowns' (and more predictable prices, and no shame in that).

That decision is partly psychological on your part. Can you abide losing 6 or 7 out of 10 of these races, and make money from 3 long-shots? Can you develop a consistent paceline selection strategy even from hodge-podge races? For the track you are working, determine if you will accept Turf lines interchangeably with Poly lines (e.g. for poly tracks like WO, TP, AP, KEE). Select a line (or lines) for every horse from within the past 3 or so (say, within 90 days of today). Use Total Energy or Perceptor Total to rate pacelines, but seek at least some sign of life in the one you pick, as above. Permit RDSS to equalize different distances and surfaces for you with its DTV and ITV adjustments (though beware of mixing sprint lines in routes races and vice versa - do it if you have no choice but be wary of magical expectations, or demand price).

Then analyse the collection of horses and their representations from your chosen lines. If you use NewPace, see if any contenders fall outside your top 4 BL/BL contenders and examine those again for WHY they do and WHETHER you could re-rate those horses in any legitimate fashion from older pacelines (and not only for the Win pool, but for Place or vertical exotics).

Look at the early pace scenario, to the 1st call AND the 2nd call. Use the Projected Pace tool to see if any Early horse dominates the other Earlies, and by how much. Look at the Segments screen to see if any horse owns (or nearly does) BOTH the 1st 2 calls of Computed Beaten Lengths section. Examine the most Early E/L Difference paceline (TPR+E/L Diff screen) and the most Late of these. If the line chosen for the horse shows consistently such E/L differential sticks (i.e. your line is not the ONLY line which is Early, when all other pacelines for the horse are very late) - this horse may dominate Early or be there at the top of the stretch - AND, this energy-based ability may NOT be evident from raw running lines only (that's why we have all the compounded velocity and energy readouts).

People who focus on these kinds of mystery races do turn up some humdingers, and may also lose more than I myself sometimes feel comfortable doing. In the end, you should be able to write out a set of rules for yourself that you would apply over and over in a perfect world where there is infinite time and you don't get bored (that's what computer programs are for ...) - then apply them as best you can until you either have a good enough feeling about your top 3 contenders and are getting a decent price - OR, you just never get that good feeling and judge instead that the race is a PASS.

Actually, concrete examples are better than any amount of theoreticals like all the words above. Why not start another Topic and mention a few of the murky races you are considering. If you are downloading and analysing those races with RDSS, give a go at choosing some lines and pose your specific questions (screen shots help the discussion). We'll try to chime in lie many have done in other recent threads, debating paceline selection approaches and contender qualifications. Even though there may be divergences of opinions (a good thing, since such differences of opinion are what makes a horse-race) you may get specific nuggets you can experiment with personally along the way to developing your own version of this Methodology.

Good luck!

Ted
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Old 11-02-2011, 02:06 PM   #8
RonP
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Thank you Mr. Craven.
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Old 11-06-2011, 09:12 PM   #9
BJennet
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Disagree/contradictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven View Post
Hi Ron,

Welcome to PaceandCap! Not sure if your question relates specifically to this NewPace thread (as NewPace does not rely on beaten lengths or good or bad performance for its primary readout). But perhaps more to the type of murky race rmath is speaking about.

You will certainly get better prices for poorer apparent recent performance. If everyone looks bad, everyone is on equal footing: go ahead and look for any signs of current form (broke sharply, ran close to leader up to 1st or 2nd call, made a gaining positional or beaten length move during a call, ran evenly, gained on leader 3+ wide around the turn even if faded in stretch, especially if ran evenly against a fast Pace of Pace).

All of the foregoing scenarios may result in the horse fading out of the money, beaten by possibly many beaten lengths. Or, they may have run on a different surface to today, or a poly surface at a different track to today's poly surface, etc. You mission is to decide if you want to be in such races, to subject yourself to the chaos, or if you should pass and look for races with more 'knowns' (and more predictable prices, and no shame in that).

That decision is partly psychological on your part. Can you abide losing 6 or 7 out of 10 of these races, and make money from 3 long-shots? Can you develop a consistent paceline selection strategy even from hodge-podge races? For the track you are working, determine if you will accept Turf lines interchangeably with Poly lines (e.g. for poly tracks like WO, TP, AP, KEE). Select a line (or lines) for every horse from within the past 3 or so (say, within 90 days of today). Use Total Energy or Perceptor Total to rate pacelines, but seek at least some sign of life in the one you pick, as above. Permit RDSS to equalize different distances and surfaces for you with its DTV and ITV adjustments (though beware of mixing sprint lines in routes races and vice versa - do it if you have no choice but be wary of magical expectations, or demand price).

Then analyse the collection of horses and their representations from your chosen lines. If you use NewPace, see if any contenders fall outside your top 4 BL/BL contenders and examine those again for WHY they do and WHETHER you could re-rate those horses in any legitimate fashion from older pacelines (and not only for the Win pool, but for Place or vertical exotics).

Look at the early pace scenario, to the 1st call AND the 2nd call. Use the Projected Pace tool to see if any Early horse dominates the other Earlies, and by how much. Look at the Segments screen to see if any horse owns (or nearly does) BOTH the 1st 2 calls of Computed Beaten Lengths section. Examine the most Early E/L Difference paceline (TPR+E/L Diff screen) and the most Late of these. If the line chosen for the horse shows consistently such E/L differential sticks (i.e. your line is not the ONLY line which is Early, when all other pacelines for the horse are very late) - this horse may dominate Early or be there at the top of the stretch - AND, this energy-based ability may NOT be evident from raw running lines only (that's why we have all the compounded velocity and energy readouts).

People who focus on these kinds of mystery races do turn up some humdingers, and may also lose more than I myself sometimes feel comfortable doing. In the end, you should be able to write out a set of rules for yourself that you would apply over and over in a perfect world where there is infinite time and you don't get bored (that's what computer programs are for ...) - then apply them as best you can until you either have a good enough feeling about your top 3 contenders and are getting a decent price - OR, you just never get that good feeling and judge instead that the race is a PASS.

Actually, concrete examples are better than any amount of theoreticals like all the words above. Why not start another Topic and mention a few of the murky races you are considering. If you are downloading and analysing those races with RDSS, give a go at choosing some lines and pose your specific questions (screen shots help the discussion). We'll try to chime in lie many have done in other recent threads, debating paceline selection approaches and contender qualifications. Even though there may be divergences of opinions (a good thing, since such differences of opinion are what makes a horse-race) you may get specific nuggets you can experiment with personally along the way to developing your own version of this Methodology.

Good luck!

Ted
Hi Ted,

First, although I agree with your comment in the previous post that the result of one race (the FL shot longshot) is meaningless in itself, a large sample of the performance of NP at FL and tracks like FL (cheap horses, large fields, uninformed bettors) could be very useful in locating a possible subset of races where NP, which has demonstrated only negative ROI thus far, regardless of the filter, could be profitable.

Second, Ron's comments summed up very well the problems of playing races like this, but I'm not sure that your answer is necessarily going to help.
Generally, from my experience, Sartin SOP does much less well on races like this (cheap, bad horses) than at higher class levels. Since, like nearly every other system or technique, the Sartin methodology depends on horses repeating a relatively recent level of performance, it's not surprising that it would do badly with the extremely erratic performance level (bad form) of the horses at this level. Your answer indicates some awareness of this, and you seem to imply that the match-up might be more useful in this kind of race, but this still relies on the shaky assumption that most of these horses are going to reproduce a given level of performance. And as Ron says, the few horses that have shown good form are invariably overbet.
Given this general scenario for this type of race, it's possible that the NP attribute of using older races might prove to more profitable than it would at higher levels.

Re caution about betting at higher odds - as we know Doc recommended a minimum bet of 4-1 for those betting 50/50. This means that, by definition the Methodology depends on what some would consider longshots to be profitable. I think Doc was absolutely right about the odds level based on the hit rates I've observed. Given this condition, does it make sense to recommend that people not bet higher odds horses, when they are a potential source of profit? I think that most people realize that they'll win less often this way. But they should also remember that, although more winners occur at lower odds levels, Sartin players will either be breaking even or losing money at these levels - roughly below 3-1. The Methodology is very capable of hitting longshot, if not with the frequency of earlier periods. Just yesterday, didn't you hit an $85 BC horse? Today, I had $59 horse and $233 in the first race at SA. Over the years I've had many. Where the Methodology find value, I would advise people to bet it.

Cheers,

B Jennet
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Old 11-07-2011, 12:37 AM   #10
Bill V.
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5.2

hi

Docs had a minimum bet of 5/2 betting two horses not 4/1
He offered guidelines.. not many rules
His approach to betting was to bet 50/50
minimum odds of 5/2 he also used place and show pools
His approach and advice in later follow ups was to bet in such a way that you
never fall too far behind,

GS
Bill
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