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06-04-2014, 03:09 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Belmont route adjustment?
Early Sartin for races on one turn miles vs two turn miles first cautioned against adjusting times and asked the handicapper to try to find races where the contenders had both races on either 1 or 2 turn tracks. At the time it was generally noticed that mile times at one turn tracks were about 1 second faster at the 6 furlong mark and 1.6 seconds (8-5ths) faster at the finish.
A year ago the American Turf published 2013 Track equalization chart had Belmont routes with a 102 rating and Santa Anita routes with a 94 rating, which meant that Belmont routes were about 8 ticks FASTER than SA, so you would slow down Belmont times when coming the two tracks. The 2014 version of that same chart has Belmont at 104 and SA at 101, indicating that Bel times should be slowed 3/5ths when comparing to SA. HOWEVER, the three year best times thru 2012 as published by DRF show Bel 9 furlong best of 146.2 and SA at 147.4 or 7 fifths. The same info thru 2013 show Bel at 146.2 and SA at 146.2!!! They still run one turn miles and one turn 9f races at Belmont vs both being 2 turn races at SA. I will adjust Belmont times when comparing the contenders for this weekend's Belmont Stakes. That will slow down the times on Tonalist, Commissioner and Matterhorn. I am going to stick with a 5 tick adjustment for the mile times of these horses and handicap this Marathon going forward. |
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