Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 01-23-2013, 03:07 PM   #1
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
Bill Lyster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
SA 6.5 furlong Down the Hill turf course

A very strange racing phenomenon that can be ironed out with the application of a few basic handicapping steps.

This course is about 6.5 furlongs, but it actually measures 6.41 furlongs, has the only right hand turn in American racing and the middle fraction is run on a down hill course which severely inflates the second fraction velocities as calculated by RDSS and tends to minimize 3F velocities.

Here is the win model for the 14 races that I have handicapped so far this season:

The results of the model are shown in the bottom two lines. So in the 2nd to last line in the V/DC column is shows that the top 2 V/DC have won 64% of the time and the top three (the bottom line) has won all 14 races (100%). Further to the right it shows that 71% of the top two horses won when 1st or 2nd in the Pace of Race "F2 POR" and "TS POR. the last three columns show info for place horses. Even though I had the place horse in the computer all but one time, the only factor that seems to have any good news is horses who are in top three CSR -62% of the time. The E/L info and % Med info is also shown.

Please note that the use of F2 POR and TS POR sometimes is all inclusive, in that if you use multiple horses from the same race they will have identical pace of race numbers for these two categories, so when that happens you will not get any clear definition of the contenders from this info. These two factors are better predictors of win (i.e. narrow the field) when the races from the competitors are different.

Who do you enter into the computer? Some background first.
A long time ago I compared local Socal 6 furong turf times from Hollywood vs SA 6.5 turf lines. I did this for horses that had raced on both surfaces so that I could find out the relationship between the adjusted speed ratings for the two courses. If you have ever handicapped one of these races and had Hol horses and SA horses from sprint turf races you would see that the 6 furlong total energy and adjusted SRs are always higher (unless the horse is really bad at Hol.) As a result the SA 6.5 turf horses never got ranked highly enough to bet.

In general, adjusted SRs from the SA turf course are about 5 points lower than flat 6 furlong adjusted SRs from Hollywood. But recently I noticed that in higher class races like graded sprints and OC 80 and OC 62.5 races that some of the contenders adjusted SRs were a lot closer than the overall average. Some of the contenders in these races had SRs that were almost equal from both types of courses. So I went back and took them out of the sample. Having done so, I found that the lower class races in the sample had adjusted SRs for the SA turf course about 7 points lower than the flat Hol turf sprint. (So if your horse ran 79 at SA on the turf course it was roughly equivalent to an 86 on Hollywood's turf course)

Experience in running these races is paramount, except when its not! Relatively few horses even run on this special course and usually, unless they excell, the ones that do run on it don't run very often, so...

I ENTER THE BEST ADJUSTED SPEED RATING FROM ANYWHERE IN THE pps FOR ANY HORSE THAT HAS RUN ON THIS COURSE;

On my second pass thru the entrants I look for any horse that has run against fast turf route times who has been up close. I usually look for a horse that has run within two lengths of a 110 and change, or faster, 6f split. If they pressed from 4th or 5th or were farther out, they won't get there today. Rarely do you find more than two such horses in these sprints, but you cannot ignore them. If the best route fraction was 111 or higher even if the horse lead such a race, its not fast enough today.

POLY and DIRT contenders. These do not make it in very often. First I look to see if there are any turf sprint lines and compare the adjusted SRs. If they have turf sprint lines I use them unless their recent dirt/poly form shows major improvement in the SRs and a decided advantage when compared to the horses already in the computer. If there is major improvement in the dirt/poly lines I note it but still use the 6.5 turf line.

FYI of the 14 races handicapped so far only three runners without a race at SA 6.5 furlongs turf have won races. Cat Talk came from a mile turf race where he lead in 46.0-109.1. He'd been off 238 days but had shown in other layoffs of 30 days or more that he came back competively (thanks to Bob Cochran for that). It didn't hurt that he had 3 turf wins either.

Cayambe on Monday had raced within 2 lengths of 46.7-110.2 and 46.5-109.3 AND in its last race had an adjusted SR of 91. The best of the 6.5 turf contenders had an adjusted SR of 82! 9 points greater than the best of my other contenders. He won by open lengths BTW.

Zuboff in Monday's 8th had a poly SR of 85 with the best of the rest using 6.5 turf lines had a 79. One of those 79s had been off 128 days and another 438 days. Zuboffs early speed earned him a 0.0-0.0-0.0 on the Segments screen, significantly beating out the other early types using their 6.5 turf lines.

In these types of races NEVER underestimate horses that have won on this course and obviously those that have never lost! Mizdirection won the BC turf sprint and has yet to lose on this course. One of the winners so far this year won its maiden first out on this course last time out and then repeated. I think that any first timer who wins on this down hill turf course rates special attention next time no matter what the program says.

Ask away...


Regards,

Bill
Attached Images
 
Bill Lyster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-23-2013, 08:41 PM   #2
gfnut
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 496
Hi Bill

Good info, thanks. From my working the 61/2 down the hill I find that horse's that have won on the course have a big advantange over the horse's that have not. Cayambe had won twice down the hill before. If a race has several horse's that have won down the hill, you can pretty much narrow the field down to those horse's and the horse's that have run a good race on the course. It is hard for horse's to compete that have not run on that course to horse's that have. The breeders cup is a good example. The times it has been at SA and they have run down the hill, (I think) it has been won by a horse with a win down the hill. Can you show some screen shots of some of the races you have done? Thanks

Name:  ScreenHunter_29 Jan. 23 17.30.jpg
Views: 1626
Size:  96.8 KB
gfnut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-23-2013, 11:02 PM   #3
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
Bill Lyster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
Thanks for the info on Carambe. The win price was $8.20 but it won as much the best. Probably the fact that the PPs did not show any 6.5 T races in the last ten helped those odds.

I will post a few screen shots tomorrow or later. Really not much to them because they follow the guidelines outlined in the first post to the letter. You will see some separation in the best lines from the low five or less contenders and you might be able to matchup some of the lines - closest to the lead, best time kind of thing.

Bill
Bill Lyster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-2013, 12:28 PM   #4
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
Bill Lyster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
An example

Maybe the best way to convey what I am saying is to show a race using best of last three turf lines (one might argue that this course is not comparable to any other and that belief has been suspended for this demonstration in order to show how the SRs from flat turf sprints overstate down the hill ability).

The first shot is of every horse with best turf line shown. the winner is 5th ranked BL and the place horse is last rated. Then I will show the PPs for the horses. Notice how the SA6.5 turf SRs are much lower than flat turf sprint SRs
Attached Images
     
Bill Lyster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-2013, 12:44 PM   #5
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
Bill Lyster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
Continuing with individual PPs

more of the same. After Cat Talk's PPs I show my contender mix where the 11 wins and 8 places.

Good adjusted SRs rarely go above 85 when taken from SA6.5 turf sprints whereas flat turf sprint SRs can often go into the 90s. See the Mizdirection PPs for example, the horse that won the BC turf sprint down the hill (after my contender mix) (I eliminated by Total Energy to get to last five.)
Attached Images
     
Bill Lyster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2013, 12:25 PM   #6
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
SA Race 5 March 3 - 6.5f Downhill Turf

Bill and everyone,

I am working this race on the downhill turf course for my PAIHL team. Based on the paramount qualification of prior experience on this course, I would have to go with the tandem of the #5 and #10. Though they are not otherwise in top PoR ranking, though #10 is indeed #2 VDC and both are best Late - I take your contender guidelines Bill to say that those who have had not yet experienced this oddity show a low hit rate first time.

The other Early and Early Presser who set and challenged the pace from that Feb 7 6.5T tandem are NOT returning today, though there is otherwise plenty of Early pressure from the #3 and #8 from their DMR and HOL racing last year (a long time ago for these young, not-yet-quite-3YO's).

Thoughts?


Name:  sa0302-5.png
Views: 1376
Size:  72.2 KB

Name:  sa0302-5tan.png
Views: 1360
Size:  57.2 KB
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™

Last edited by Ted Craven; 03-02-2013 at 12:30 PM.
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2013, 01:45 PM   #7
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
Bill Lyster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
Here is how I look at it ---

sa 5th 6.5 turf:

Here is what I put in the computer: The best adjusted SR of those that have run on the course is 78, so for me anyone coming from the main track or another turf course has to have at least an 85-84 ASR to get in here. If they have run routes with 109 or 110 interior fractions, they needed to be on the lead or closely pressing. Caught Napping ran against a fast pace but was not close enuf. Closing-wise his EL of -1.2 is not impressive.

The 3 has obviously been highly thought of from the start, but the layoff is a concern. the best ASR is 89 but it comes with an EL of 9.1. My stakes and allowance model goes up to +6.0 and down to -17.0, so even if I include the line with ASR 79 the EL is still borderline, but now the ASR of 79 is not high enough. Probably on the board but not the winner IMHO. You also have 2 other horses that are E8 so the 3 could be compromised from that angle as well.

The pace of race that the 5 and 10 ran against is not one of the fastest for this course that often sees 4 furlong times in the mid 43's, nonetheless, I am counting on the experience of these two to prevail. I got no clue who can place - model does not help except that place horse has been top 4 CSR 67% of the time.

Good luck to you contest guys and all others --
Attached Images
   
Bill Lyster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2013, 01:58 PM   #8
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
Thanks Bill for the extra precision from your models. I ended up selecting the #1 for an underneath position, partly for price over the #3 who I am also concerned about for current form (though consistent preps). The #1 had a VERY nice 58.2 5f Turf workout 7 days ago, is lightly raced and ran 5 weeks ago (Maiden). As an counter-energy horse, and a price, it seemed a useful alternative.

5-10 Win
5-10-1 Exacta

Let's see Good luck today!

Ted
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2013, 05:16 PM   #9
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
Bill Lyster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
Nice call Ted!
Bill Lyster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2013, 05:18 PM   #10
Rverge
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: pittsburgh, now! Lancaster, CA.
Posts: 2,531
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven View Post
Thanks Bill for the extra precision from your models. I ended up selecting the #1 for an underneath position, partly for price over the #3 who I am also concerned about for current form (though consistent preps). The #1 had a VERY nice 58.2 5f Turf workout 7 days ago, is lightly raced and ran 5 weeks ago (Maiden). As an counter-energy horse, and a price, it seemed a useful alternative.

5-10 Win
5-10-1 Exacta

Let's see Good luck today!

Ted
1-10, Ted, good one!
__________________
i love every single minute of life, and, if one is lucky,then you must give it to others.
Rverge is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Saratoga 7th pktruckdriver Selections 10 08-17-2011 06:29 AM
Spa 7/31 Sunday on the Turf Race #6 Capcondo Matchup Discussion 0 07-30-2011 10:25 AM
Santa Anita turf sprints Bill Lyster RDSS 1 12-26-2009 07:42 AM
July 4th, Monmouth 11 furlong route on turf Bill Lyster Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum 6 07-05-2009 10:08 AM
Furlong calculation for SA's turf course Psychotic Parakeet Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum 9 09-27-2008 12:28 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:24 PM.