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Matchup Discussion Matchup Discussion and Practice

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Old 11-09-2013, 02:01 PM   #1
Seven Furlongs
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Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 115
Route Races

Hello,

I used to post under Zip Zap, but due to a hiatus as a result of personal matters I decided to get back in to handicapping the races. I decided to change user names because I forgot the old one.

I have been trying to make sense of the races the last little while and I have decided to return to the perspective that makes the most sense to me - The Hat's Match-Up. I have had a little success with it, as I nabbed the 2nd race at Aqueduct today and the 7th and 8th races yesterday while betting 1 horse, but what I have found to be a struggle with re-acquainting myself with the match-up is that I can't make sense of most route races, either dirt or turf.

I have done Mind's Eye 1 and will start Mind's Eye 2 today, in addition to reviewing the Red Manual and the Five Steps. My procedure is as follows:

-scan the pps to find the early horse(s) that will set the 1st call.
-do the same for the 2nd call.
-project a pace from the 1st and 2nd calls.
-use that pace to determine the likely contenders.
-from those contenders look to see if the race runs early or other than early.


What I have trouble with in route races is that there is less of a likelihood of a front runner as you so readily find in sprints. Because of this, I find it hard to get a good sense of what the 1st and 2nd calls project to be. Also, I struggle to adjust what a 1 turn mile pace line would look like in a 2 turn route. As for the turf, I find the pacelines to appear to be a bit more erratic, which makes it difficult at times to find a secure 1st and 2nd call that can be projected.

Any advice on the use of the Match-Up and routes would be appreciated.
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Old 11-10-2013, 01:03 PM   #2
Bill Lyster
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Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
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Matchup-wise you can match anything that is similar, so if you have a one turn mile as the best and latest and no one else has one, look for a two turn route to compare to the other horses two turn efforts or even sprints. If you compare sprints to sprints and determine the most likely outcome, then project the sprints to routes and do the same.

Remember the Hat liked fast sprinters to beat SLOW routers, so always be on the look out for when fast sprinters dominate. Also, just a note, sprinters lines for route races should be races where the sprinters held or gained position, so a really big collapse by a sprinter is not a good candidate (USUALLY) going into a route. Of course vs. a field of sustained pluggers take a little longer look. The big early lead may never disappear.

The old rule of thumb which I recently checked in a very small sample was that one turn routes run 8 ticks faster at the finish and 5 ticks faster at the six furlong point, so a 111 - 137 Belmont one turn mile would roughly equate to a 112 - 138.6 at a two turn track. A lot of the time you can verify this in the PPs but when horses have few races sometimes you just have to use these loose relationships and move forward. You can always pass the race if your discomfort level gets too high.
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Old 11-11-2013, 03:54 PM   #3
Seven Furlongs
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Join Date: Oct 2011
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Thanks for the response.

I think because I try and project a pace - at least the 4f and 6f time for routes - and I have found that projection to be more erratic at routes than at sprints, I've found it hard to get a pace line template from which to match route horses. I think the uneven nature of that pace line projection at routes makes it seem for me, at least intuitively, that I am trying to juggle too much uncertainty.

I can sometimes tell when a sprinter will succeed when stretching out, especially if the sprinter's last race is a 7f or 6.5f race and the route distance is a mile, as the disparity in length isn't too great and the sprinter will usually have a decided 4f and 6f advantage.

Sometimes I forget that the point of the match-up is to find the fastest horse that best fits the pace scenario rather than looking for horses that you can use to build a projected pace line.

Maybe part of the struggle for me is that I haven't been factoring any Power Lines or Power Moves in my matching. It's just that I'm trying to get a procedure that I feel comfortable with and that makes taking a race apart a pretty repeatable process.

Maybe when an interesting route shows up, I'll post the pps and match it to get better feedback.
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