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Old 01-14-2022, 07:57 AM   #1
DanBoals
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FG - Jan 14

Ok, let's give this a second try, and hopefully this card won't get cancelled due to weather

Race 1 - 3, 1, 2, 6
Race 2 - 7, 1, 6, 2
Race 3 - 3, 4, 2, 1
Race 4 - 3, 6, 4, 5
Race 5 - 2, 3, 5, 8
Race 6 - 8, 9, 7, 4
Race 7 - 5, 2, 3, 1
Race 8 - 11, 4, 5, 1
Race 9 - 9, 4, 12, 6
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Old 01-14-2022, 08:58 AM   #2
Lt1
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Good luck Dan.
Tim
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Old 01-14-2022, 12:01 PM   #3
DanBoals
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Thank you, Tim. Good handicapping to you as well.
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Old 01-14-2022, 12:14 PM   #4
darmar
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Great Skill today Dan .it's good to have back
Darryl
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Old 01-14-2022, 12:17 PM   #5
DanBoals
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Race 1 - 3, 6, 1, 4
Race 8 - 4, 5, 10, 8
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Old 01-14-2022, 12:34 PM   #6
ranchwest
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Hit 'em all, Dan!
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Old 01-14-2022, 08:11 PM   #7
DanBoals
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Race 1 - 3, 6, 1, 4 - 5 horses ran
Race 2 - 7, 1, 6, 2 - 8 horses ran
Race 3 - 3, 4, 2, 1 - 5 horses ran and still couldn't get winner in top 4
Race 4 - 3, 6, 4, 5 - 5 horses ran
Race 5 - 2, 3, 5, 8 - 8 horses ran
Race 6 - 8, 9, 7, 4 - 9 horses ran
Race 7 - 5, 2, 3, 1 - 7 horses ran
Race 8 - 4, 5, 10, 8 - 9 horses ran
Race 9 - 9, 4, 12, 6 - 12 horses ran

My first idea for a win betting strategy is to bet the two highest odds horses out of my top 3 picks, and pass any races with 6 or fewer betting choices. If I had done this I would have gotten the following:

Race 1 - 3, 6, 1, 4 - pass
Race 2 - 7, 1, 6, 2 - bet the 6 and the 7 - loss of $4
Race 3 - 3, 4, 2, 1 - pass
Race 4 - 3, 6, 4, 5 - pass
Race 5 - 2, 3, 5, 8 - bet the 2 and the 3 - loss of $4
Race 6 - 8, 9, 7, 4 - bet the 7 and 8 - profit of $27.60
Race 7 - 5, 2, 3, 1 - bet the 3 and 2 - profit of $12.20
Race 8 - 4, 5, 10, 8 - bet the 10 and the 5 - loss of $4
Race 9 - 9, 4, 12, 6 - bet the 4 and the 9 - profit of $7

in the case of race 9, the 4 and 12 both went off at 9/2, but 4 ranked higher, so it was the choice

Had I followed this strategy, which was suggested to me when I had trouble making a profit on my top 2 horses, I would have hit 3 out of 6 races for a total profit of $34.80 on $24 bet for an ROI of 1.45 which is a decent day. Had I bet the 9 and 12 on the last race, that would have been $23.80 profit on 2 out of 6 races for an ROI of about 1.00.

I have always heard you should box your top 3 picks for the exacta, but I don't think I would make a profit doing so since I do not get enough place horses in my top 3.

If you see I am doing something wrong or making a false assumption, please do not hesitate to point it out, I have lots of room for improvement and any help is appreciated.
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Old 01-14-2022, 09:28 PM   #8
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Nice work Dan. Anytime you make a profit it's a good day. Doc recommended boxing your top 3 for the exacta and the top 4 for tri.
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Old 01-14-2022, 10:20 PM   #9
ranchwest
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DanBoals View Post
Race 1 - 3, 6, 1, 4 - 5 horses ran
Race 2 - 7, 1, 6, 2 - 8 horses ran
Race 3 - 3, 4, 2, 1 - 5 horses ran and still couldn't get winner in top 4
Race 4 - 3, 6, 4, 5 - 5 horses ran
Race 5 - 2, 3, 5, 8 - 8 horses ran
Race 6 - 8, 9, 7, 4 - 9 horses ran
Race 7 - 5, 2, 3, 1 - 7 horses ran
Race 8 - 4, 5, 10, 8 - 9 horses ran
Race 9 - 9, 4, 12, 6 - 12 horses ran

My first idea for a win betting strategy is to bet the two highest odds horses out of my top 3 picks, and pass any races with 6 or fewer betting choices. If I had done this I would have gotten the following:

Race 1 - 3, 6, 1, 4 - pass
Race 2 - 7, 1, 6, 2 - bet the 6 and the 7 - loss of $4
Race 3 - 3, 4, 2, 1 - pass
Race 4 - 3, 6, 4, 5 - pass
Race 5 - 2, 3, 5, 8 - bet the 2 and the 3 - loss of $4
Race 6 - 8, 9, 7, 4 - bet the 7 and 8 - profit of $27.60
Race 7 - 5, 2, 3, 1 - bet the 3 and 2 - profit of $12.20
Race 8 - 4, 5, 10, 8 - bet the 10 and the 5 - loss of $4
Race 9 - 9, 4, 12, 6 - bet the 4 and the 9 - profit of $7

in the case of race 9, the 4 and 12 both went off at 9/2, but 4 ranked higher, so it was the choice

Had I followed this strategy, which was suggested to me when I had trouble making a profit on my top 2 horses, I would have hit 3 out of 6 races for a total profit of $34.80 on $24 bet for an ROI of 1.45 which is a decent day. Had I bet the 9 and 12 on the last race, that would have been $23.80 profit on 2 out of 6 races for an ROI of about 1.00.

I have always heard you should box your top 3 picks for the exacta, but I don't think I would make a profit doing so since I do not get enough place horses in my top 3.

If you see I am doing something wrong or making a false assumption, please do not hesitate to point it out, I have lots of room for improvement and any help is appreciated.
What did you like about the 7 in Race 6, if I may ask?

I agree with Tim that any way you can make a profit is good. There's so many short prices. I had 8 of 9 in my top 4 yet it could easily be a losing day. I made no wagers.
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Old 01-15-2022, 12:18 AM   #10
DanBoals
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Hey Ranch,

7 Lady C's last line gave her a top 3 TT, which is often an indication a horse is going to improve. She was also running for a price for the first time, so she got the MSW to MC plus mark. She had the top LPR and the 3rd highest Hidden Energy and those two factors are generally very strong for turf routes. Her adjusted SR had improved in each of the last 3 races, which seems to show she is coming in form, which along with the top 3 TT made me hope for an improvement. I also like her top TS+F, which showed a good close.

Normally I would just throw out a line that ugly, but I took a course from Tom Hamilton at a community college in LA (not for college credit unfortunately) and the main thing I got out of that class was always rate the last line. He pointed out that the program sees things we might not initially see and if the horse rates really high off its last line, you should really think twice before tossing it.

When you look at the last lines of all the horses in the race, they are truly bad. The 9 finished second in a dirt sprint and the 4 finished 2nd in a turf route Other than the two finish places, no other horse in the race had a top 3 placement at ANY call in their last line. This kind of ugly race is very chaotic and there are often great mutual prices to be had.
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