Saratoga Stats

[gandalf380]

After three weeks of the meet some trends are developing. As part of my handicapping, I keep a database of all the non-maiden races. I use paceline selection of the best perceptor of the last three in most cases. I only change that when the best preceptor is not in the last three races and then I use the best adjusted speed rating. So far, for all distances, the top 3 v/dc and ties win 67% of all races. The top 5 fx horses have won 80% of all nonmaiden races regardless of distance. The only exception to that is 8.5f on the turf where fw is a slightly better indicator but probably not enough to make much of a difference of just using top 5 fx for all races.

[KBROD]

gandalf....what is fx.....speed horses......also v/dc

[gandalf380]

Fx and v\dc are calculations found in most sartin programs including rdss

[dandy68]

thanks for the stats. any more insight on breaking the top 3 vdc or top 5 fx coices are down to just two; or is it just bet the two longest odds at post time?

[gandalf380]

As a follow up, to date there have been 34 non maiden 6f races at Saratoga. The winner has been in the top three of turn time 80% of the time. Based on my pace lines which are mostly best of last three percepter but changed when they don't agree with best adjusted speed figure of last three.

[Peteman]

Good info Gandalf,thanks for Sharing

I have 16 races in last 2 years, at 6 fur at Sar. 62% 1-3 ep win
with prices of 10,31,16,45,4,18,32,17,7,8.

[gandalf380]

21 dirt races run at 6.5f. The top 4 fractal-e horses have won 81% of the races. Top 5 fractal-e have won 86% of the races.