hitting the target or the triple 20

[Mitch44]

BTW if there is chaos from the 1/8 pole to the wire for winners and we can't make money on win betting can you imagine what that chaos is from the 1/8 pole to the wire for place, show and the 4th slot for the SF ?

Mitch44

[Tim Y]

Hard to believe that one of the SLOWEST racing surfaces out there, Mahoning Valley, is proving (in an otherwise too small a sample) to be another one. Only problem is that it hits but there is not enough money in the pools to carry on long term.

[Tim Y]

QUOTE: "Fact of the matter is that if there is chaos from the 1/8 pole to the wire it's in your handicapping."

You really NEED to read The Drunkard's Walk: Ho Randomness Rules our Lives....as you put far too much faith is believing that history will EXACTLY repeat itself once you have discoverer it. IT will not I assure you.

THIRD fractions are NOT reproducible because they have a varying dependence upon the point at which they START. Speed early by any horse is the most predictable of the fractions and it goes down from there on the main course.

NO, Having watched HUNDREDS and HUNDREDS of close photo finishes and the random reasons that preclude the logical horse getting their head down first, it became OBVIOUS to me that once the CONTENDERS get to that critical part of the race, DUMB LUCK takes a hand.

One of the most productive of all projects at the start of this long journey (the nidus of this idea actually because I never bet exotics until recently) was the angle "Riding the Coat Tails."

How often in a blanket finish (less than a length among three horses) does the odds on horse run third and the tri is relatively HUGE for that close a shot by the favorite? (three years of study: the answer was A LOT). People do not go deep enough in their exotics outside of the favorite on top or at worst second. There is a blind spot for exploitation there.

Get the horse you KNOW has a great shot to hit the board. It drags other longer priced animals in with it who RIDE THE COAT TAILS, parimutuelly, of the projected winner.

This is GAMBLING, not handicapping. These observations are a true today as they always have been over the last years of this ongoing study. IT WAS ONLY when I divorced the very different requirements on each side the handicapping/wagering equation did I see these patterns were more lucrative, however random their occurrence. You have to bide your time breaking even here and there and missing until the randomness of the situation breaks through with a big score to tide you over.

One has to embrace the force that is around us all the time and never gets the credit it deserves: RANDOMNESS. This idea of perfect determinism is a pipe dream. The world is not like that. Read The Black Swan and become enlightened to how much randomness is just dismissed by a fictitious stories overlaid on what we THINK is cause and effect when, in reality, it is the effect of PURE CHANCE.

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

Personally I'm not betting an exacta that the public hammers to a $7.00 payoff and I put in $20 for my top two with my top 6 as you profess. Just not good sound advice. Best of luck through with that.
Mitch44

Different POOL can be night and day

[Tim Y]

Way back when Maryland ran three major venues each year, poor old (now defunct) Bowie got the worst of the dates and suffered through severe winters trying to present day to day cards. The weather was so bad that IT ALONE became a major handicapping factor.

Mid to late 70's and exactas were a new bet to racing nationally. At that time ONLY WIN odds were posted each contest. Came up almost a blizzard and two horses finished in an exacta at 12/1 and 5/1 (or those ranges as I recall). Even though the odds board lit up over the win place payouts, the exacta for a deuce was only around $35.00. There was a near riot and later this race (for the sake of any ongoing public confidence in that track) after an investigation by the Maryland Racing Commission, did they find out that the top two (who shared a word in their names like OUR pro and MY pro for example) were the 4th favorite exacta combination. It was assumed many people there (small crowd anyway) put the two together has a hunch bet with the results that the EXOTIC pool had these horses well represented and NOT SO in the straight pool.

This is, of course, an extreme example, but it happens all the time to some degree. Thanks for the exotic payout notifications now.

Our standardbred called (Ken ) often announces at the start of the pick 4 which animals are different in the straight and pick 4 pools as to give the crowd a head's up.

[Mitch44]

Your right about payout notifications and it can make a huge difference in your wagering.
Mitch44