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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 03-03-2018, 10:14 PM   #41
Bill V.
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Nice work Tim

I`m looking for an article in one of the last few follow ups.
In that article Doc writes about not blindly accepting the best of the last 3 best on ratings alone.

In his reference he used the horse with the highest speed figure , which was the guideline at the time, later it was replaced with the paceline indicator which in reality was today`s
Perceptor ,
As you did here a general handicapping knowledge is required to get past the limits of just picking pace lines based on numbers and ratings.

Tim, the key to your success in this race and many others, throughout pace and cap comes from your hard work, your record keeping, and you belief in what you choose to accept.

Great job Tim

Bless
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Old 03-04-2018, 12:35 AM   #42
lone speed
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
BTW that L 7 was 266 days ago. "If your going to make a horse a contender you have to give it every chance to win." So many teachers have said that I'm not sure who originated it.


Mitch44
Mitch,

I have heard Tom Brohamer "hammered" that point over and over in a Las Vegas Seminar in 1991 and again at seminar at Santa Anita on Big Cap day, years later with James Quinn.

Great Work up, guys in this thread...
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Old 03-04-2018, 06:43 AM   #43
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Thanks Mitch, Bill, and Lone Speed. Just another point of information I like to add. At the 93 Vegas seminar there was a panel involving readouts in Entropy. In it several teachers pointed out that at the tracks they played any horse ranked #1 in early was a threat to win even though it had nothing else going for it. In some cases the horse would have been a automatic throw out based on high line score totals. They had found this out after tossing these types of horses and losing races. Here once again the use of a model pointed this out. They reminded us of another Doc teaching know the track[s] you play. What works for me at Parx or GP may not be what is winning at your track[s]. Only you can answer that question.
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Old 03-04-2018, 07:03 AM   #44
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This is a good point to see the value of different screens and panels. In its PP's at the 1st & 2nd calls this horse doesn't have a bunch of 1's and is not up close in beaten lengths. it makes up ground at the stretch call and in the stretch. This was my first indication that it rates off those very fast 43 & 44's POR fractions.


In RDSS if you click on the horses TPR screen every one of the # 6 horse (winner) sticks are blue. These sticks are blue for a late runner. And real noteworthy is the fact that on the TPR screen every one of its ( # 6) LPR ratings are higher than its EPR ratings.


On the 3rd panel that BLBL is on if you click on the Energy screen you will see two types of running style the % Med one on the left indicated by ESP and the visual indicated by RS. On the RS the 1,2 & 5 have a RS of P and the 7 is EP. On % Med the 1,2,& 5 have a Late ESP & # 7 is S. The % Med is a much more refined and accurate readout, Horses can go wire to wire and not be an early horse as they rate on the lead and also only do what they have to do. The RS (visual) is for matcher's employing the Match UP. I've emphasized this in a prior post. To see these differences my contenders & lines were:
1 L 1
2 L 1
4 L 2
5 L 3
6 L 7
7 L 4
I normally only keep 5 contender but couldn't throw out the 6. Once I analyze these contenders my 4 & 5th choices are only there for EX or TRi. I strive to get the winner in my top 3 for DD and P-3's bets.


You can see the difference between the ESP (% Med) & the RS (visual) using my lines & contenders. However this isn't really necessary if you have faith in % Med, which I have employed since it came out in the Synergism program and totally believe in it . You can see the horses ESP & % Med by clicking on the Energy screen of the horses PP's For the # 6, 8 of its 10 races are L and two races are S. Also all of its % Med are low ( E.g. 66.8) Early horses tend to run 69.0 or so.
Too many of the public just assumed this was an E horse because of the fast POR this horse was running in and couldn't stretch out.


Know your horse,


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Old 03-04-2018, 07:26 AM   #45
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As with a lot of things I don't do, a track porfile is one of them . I play too many different tracks to maintain one. However I'm very attuned to % Med, ESP and the importance of the match up. Every race comes down to the Match Up. I can't employ it as Bradshaw did but am very familiar with it and the concepts of it. In this race I knew the # 6 could save much energy for the distance & stretch out by not having to overcome those 43 & 44 POR fractions it had been running against.

Sartin said: " If your not from Oklahoma,wear a cowboy hat and have a genius IQ forget about the match up." That was me with my little brain. He also said; "I have come across very few that can duplicate Bradshaw, even I can't, the match up is included in all our programs."


I do admire those that can successfully employ the match up and if I only played one track I would definitely keep a track profile. Thanks Bill V, Tim & lone speed.


Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 03-04-2018 at 07:28 AM.
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Old 03-04-2018, 08:36 PM   #46
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Hi Bill. I believe I just found it in FU 88. There is an article by Eric Penicka starting on page 24 with some good info followed by an article by Doc outlining the danger of blind acceptance of pace lines Even found a letter I sent to Doc in the Vox Populi section detailing Validator results for the Belmont meet I was playing. Didn't realize I 3 reports published in various follow ups. Anyway I think the articles by Eric and the Doc will prove helpful to everyone.
Tim
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Old 03-04-2018, 09:47 PM   #47
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Its been well stated before the importance of reviewing and confirming automatic pace line selection. The program won't go past the last 3.


In doing last Sat. GP on 3 Mar.18 I spent an hour confirming pace lines. Large card of 14 races and quite a few horses. I found one where it picked a 5F line for a route race when there was two usable route line on the correct surface within the last 3. I have absolutely no idea why this happens and found many lines I didn't agree with throughout the card.


Confirming line picks is a must if you want to win. No automatic selection can beat your brain. Same for blindly accepting readouts without analysis of the horses PP's.


Thanks for the reference Tim and your work to find that article.


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Old 03-05-2018, 08:21 AM   #48
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Bill gets the credit since he's the one that remember there was post by the Doc in one of the later FUS. It wasn't hard to find.
Tim
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Old 03-05-2018, 11:43 PM   #49
Bill V.
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Top 4 RX explained

Hi FTL
I agree with what you're saying. In the SA race, there were only 3 contenders
In today's PRX race there were 4.
What I mean is if you look at the RX screen- Please look at the actual RX numbers.

Horse 3 gets a rating of 44, Horse 6 gets a rating of 37, Horse 9 gets a rating of 19, Horse 2 is a contender but it gets no RX rating. If you go to the secondary contenders
Horse 4 gets an RX3 rating of 18


Name:  RX3_2.PNG
Views: 408
Size:  59.3 KB


So when I record the results into my spreadsheet, It will record
the top 4 RX horses in the number value order.
3=44
6=37
9=19
4=18

It does not record Horse 2 as being in the top 4 RX. Even though it was a contender based on your guidelines.

This is why all my records are saved with every horse getting a line.
It's kind of like the morning line. No matter how many horses are in a race.
Every horse gets a moring line. The morning line is given to a horse based on how the morning line
maker feels the public will bet each horse relative to every other horse in the race.

RX3 is doing the same thing. Its a rating based on its ability relative to every horse in the race.
Even though 5 of the 9 entrants have very low win probabilities.

Thanks
Bill

Last edited by Bill V.; 03-05-2018 at 11:46 PM.
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Old 05-21-2018, 11:10 PM   #50
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how do you move horses to non win contenders. (Secondary Contenders)?? Thanks

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
Hi Neil and Jeebs

Hi Neil I may have use line 1 myself. If horse 6 showed me anything on any other dirt line. I would like to know FTL's take on this or Bill Lyster , Bill has much more data on SoCal racing than I do.

Hi Tim
You bring up a good point. It is very easy to down grade horses
to non win contenders.

Ted uses this option all the time, It is going to take me awhile to adjust
to it. In this screen shot, I have moved the 6 2 and 3 out of the win
contender area . Now RDSS is saying the winner, horse # 5 gets a 57
probability. Horse# 6 now only has a 17

Attachment 45663
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