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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 05-07-2018, 03:24 AM   #1
Mitch44
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Concept of deceleration.



Deceleration


papajohn3timesreference your question on balance, DCL and what is deceleration?


Decelerationis an important factor in racing, only RDSS is using it. The matchup has a cause and effect on deceleration and it also comes from a horse’s natural running style and how it uses its energy. Most races it’s a combination of both.


Balance is a basic or crude way of looking at deceleration and consists of E/Ep# + E/LP# + TPP # rankings to get the balance number on the Energy screen. A crude way to also look at the matchup. The lower the balance the more efficient the horse can run in today’s matchup. Those with a high balance can be tossed. Sartin said horses over 8 seldom win. Caveat here: the low numbers are best, the more contenders in a race the higher the numbers will be to include the best orlowest numbers. **** If you model this keep the same number of contenders for all your races in the model,Sartin always recommended 5 ***** I don’t believe one needs to model it toget the point.


Most horses have a specific running style and that style has an effect on deceleration. This style is best determined by % Med. Horses with a % Med. 0f70.0% seldom win unless matched up with a bunch of other high % Med. horses.These pretty much are an extremely high % deceleration and a toss. Ditto for extremely low % Med as they indicate a possible one run horse. Brohamer's bookModern Pace Handicapping goes into great detail on % Med. and its uses. It is not a standalone factor but is a tool.


Another way of looking at deceleration first appeared in PMTR book under advancedconcepts. It simply measures the difference from EPR and LPR E.g.


EPR LPR TPR Diff.


A 92 72 164 -20


B 72 92 164 +20


BTW who of A & B would win this matchup?


In RDSS you can see this on the TPR + EL screen by the red and blue lines, the faster early the longer the red line and the LPR is a blue line, the greater the plus difference the longer the blue line. The "Doc" loved visual stuff because he could grasp it better. Bill V is one who can make this workwell for him also. An early embryo version.



Moving along: The DCL you asked about is a much better way of looking at this. It’s amuch more accurate measurement. Obtained by 3rd FR divided by SecondCall E.g. 52.5 FPS / 55.3 FPS = 94.9 DCL. Here’s where members go wrong with this, high DCL numbers aren’t necessary the best. Low velocity horses don’t decelerate much. We’re looking for fast horses with the least deceleration thathold up to the wire. DCL measures deceleration but fails to consider energy. What you need to do is put the rating in context with Total Energy. Eliminate low Total Energy horses with low DCL numbers. Another way to put this is eliminate low velocity horses with high deceleration. If you look at the Velocity POH screen first you can determine the match up andwho can’t meet it. Think of which are the worst horses (low Tot. En. & lowDCL then go the BLBL screen and look at the rank. You’ll be surprised. After my analysis of screens including sometimes just the TPR screen I can determine what BLBL will be.


All that said about DCL, it still is just a tool and another crude way of looking at deceleration but better than previous methods. The reason I say that is because it’s only one measurement of deceleration. With the progression from TPR to 3 fractions and FPS (feet per second), compounded ratings came about such as FX,HE which propelled the Sartin Mythology forward. The rapid advancement of computers also made it possible to handle 3 fractions and all the additional math, with greater memory and faster calculations. Not only were the compounded ratings better it also propelled deceleration forward with such programs as Entropy which is now extinct and a crude version. Reading the Entropy manual will probably confuse the hell out of most, besides it has evolved and its formulas are no longer valid. My favorite program. The only thing good in the manual is concept.


The very best comprehensive factor for deceleration is V/DC. DCL is only one element or factor in it, as it contains several different measurements of factors in it and some other hokey pokey good stuff. An all in one rating that’sa little better than BLBL. It’s one factor that works at all tracks, distance and surfaces.


You need to look at the rankings of V/DC on the BLBL screen because they include energy and deceleration for several different factors being rated. For those pesky ties prefer the better BLBL ranking to break ties. You may have two 4 rankings for V/DC the one with the better BLBL ranking is the better of the two. Also you can go to the Primary screen to break ties, as an ex. if there are 2 horses tied with a ranking of 4 the one with the lowest total energy and highest ranking number is the worst of the 4 etc. The worst ranking not the difference in %. Depending on where the decelerationis taking place a horse could be tied in total energy or very close and have a higher % but be better depending on where the deceleration is taking place, the ranking number separates them better and BLBL total. You can really just scratch from BLBL and get the same results which is much easier. The other way gives a better picture of who is better, a clearer picture of ties. Especially when you’re down to 5 contenders for ties on BLBL orties in V/DC. It pays to look at several different screen.


All the above are tools and different ways of looking at deceleration with the latest, most complex and efficient being V/DC. Deceleration is basically when a horse is gutted, out of gas and running on empty, where that takes place and is caused by a combination of running style and the matchup. They throw in the towel, raise the white flag and surrender to the superior forces that attacked it.


Not just in the 3rd FR, if an Early horse doesn’t carry its speed intothe 2nd FR it’s a false Early horse and gutted at that point. V/DChas a measurement for that. This is also why horses that can run or put together two good Fractions are superior and force others not to run their 3rdFr. number and TPR. Ditto for S types that run two good FR or HE. One good FR horses seldom win unless everything collapses, a horse with a big 2ndFR seldom wins but it does in many cases propel them into the money (place& show) as they pass many gutted horses.


Without getting more into the nuts and bolts of it any deeper that’s about as simple asI can make it. Essentially it’s several compounded factors, each measured by deceleration of those factors, combined with energy which also takes into consideration the matchup and a clone of what Sartin taught Bradshaw who together collaborated to what is now V/DC.


Mitch44





Last edited by Mitch44; 05-07-2018 at 03:42 AM.
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Old 05-07-2018, 08:36 AM   #2
Bill V.
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Visual

Hello PapaJohnx3
Thank you very much for the prayers and kind words

As Mitch mentioned, I am much a visual learner.
I measure many things about each horse based on the phase 1 numbers.
What really helps me is the red and blue "sticks"

What I am showing here is from horse # 2 Let's Parlay
She is running in the 8th race today from Parx

what I show here is what I see in my mind, as I go to each horse as I'm assigning my feelings on their ability.
In form speed pace and the match up.

Please look this over

This took me some time to learn but now its automatic, I've been using the sticks for over 20 years.
I do this all in my head very quickly , but I hope you can see the concepts I use to measure factors, including deceleration

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Old 05-07-2018, 08:58 AM   #3
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Nice work Mitch and Bill. I just like to point out that imo keeping a model of tracks you play is important. As an example although at most tracks horses with %meds at or over 70% rarely win it is not always the case. Currently at Parx based on my contender and paceline selections the % med of the winner in the last 10 has ranged from 69.1 to 71.4[2times]. Prior to that the avg winners %med ranged from 68.2 to 70.7. If I remember correctly Mth was another track where horses with 70%+ med could win. The other thing I like to point out is Doc stated in his 1 on 1 video that concerning balance was that although horses with a balance over 8 rarely win on dirt they do on turf. The second thing he pointed out was not to be fooled into thinking that the horse with the lowest balance number will be your winner. In short know your tracks.
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Old 05-07-2018, 10:45 AM   #4
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Wow! what can I say? You 3 gentleman along with Ted of course and Ritchie P. are the best! I guess I never understood DCL this way before. Thank all of you so much! I sure hope I can get to somehow meet and thank all off you personally
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Old 05-07-2018, 11:31 AM   #5
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Print this one

I would suggest printing this thread, reading it multiple times and marking it up with a highlighter and a red pen. IMHO, it's that good. Three of the best on P&C discussing one of Doc Sartin's greatest innovations and it's something in which many of us, me included, have very little foundation. Thank you Mitch, Bill V and Tim.
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Old 05-07-2018, 01:26 PM   #6
Mitch44
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For clarification;" All that said about DCL, it still is just a tool and another crude way of looking at deceleration but better than previous methods.", by that I mean it's just one factor or part of the whole deceleration picture.


When DCL is used like I do and tied to Total Energy, TPR, or CPR it becomes a very sophisticated factor. Bury that bold print above into your mind, on marrying it to Total Energy. Much better than balance, color sticks etc. because it's a specific number that is on a 100 scale that we can all relate to.


Now ponder this; Just how important is DCL? Well let's see 3rd FR is a part of; HE,FX, CPR or TPR, FW and of course its self the 3rd FR etc. Now do you see how important it is?


Yes crude in the sense of only being one factor of V/DC, and crude without the addition of Total Energy. However when combined with Total Energy as stated above in the original or top post it far surpasses Balance ,color sticks etc. it's the BOMB for eliminating non-contenders or getting a race down to the three best horse in many cases, some races 4 contenders and with a two horse bettor you're in the game. Of course to be successful also requires discipline and money management.


Too few members are using the Velocity-POH screen. The value of the DCL alone is a must to use it. There is also is other good stuff there. You can also see the fall off and sharp decline of the FPS in the 3rd FR and the opposite 1st FR of S type runners. Too few members are making use of this screen because FPS are hard to understand because they're not on a scale of 100 and they can't determine beaten lengths. Get this screen into your analysis.


AS previously stated, RDSS is the only one using deceleration. Ted may want to take down this thread to protect it and DCL at its best.


Mitch44

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Old 05-07-2018, 03:14 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post

Eliminate low Total Energy horses with low DCL numbers. Another way to put this is eliminate low velocity horses with high deceleration.
As a minor addition to this excellent thread, here's an example of low velocity and high deceleration. The 8, 1 and 7 are candidates for elimination as win contenders. They are the three lowest velocity horses in the field and the three highest deceleration horses.
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Old 05-07-2018, 05:51 PM   #8
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Hi Mick
I guess cause your name is too much like Mitch that I always seem to forget to mention you! I enjoy your postings also! I did go right to the post office and printed out the great advice Oh also,I looked at your post and bet 6.00 on the 2 and 2 wp on the #3 as I saw he was Penn National and with very limited knowledge,in my brief betting there,I saw very few winners from there====so thank you
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Old 05-07-2018, 05:53 PM   #9
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Or in plain language, they don't run as fast and they slow down quicker.
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Old 05-07-2018, 05:59 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by papajohn3times View Post
Hi Mick
I guess cause your name is too much like Mitch that I always seem to forget to mention you! I enjoy your postings also! I did go right to the post office and printed out the great advice Oh also,I looked at your post and bet 6.00 on the 2 and 2 wp on the #3 as I saw he was Penn National and with very limited knowledge,in my brief betting there,I saw very few winners from there====so thank you
Thank you, papajohn. Our friend Mitch is the real deal. As is Bill V. and Lt1 (Tim).

Your #2 horse won at 9-2 and you had it three times. Congratulations.
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