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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 02-04-2019, 10:01 PM   #1
Fairchild
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PP Line Selection

I have the program set up to find the best of the last three races using the preceptor. Since the chosen line often does not conform to the + (+) and 0 as well as offtrack and class do you override the program and chose a line that does meet these requirements? I try not to use off tracks when possible as well as not using 5F races, what do you do with the non plus races that are chosen?
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Old 02-05-2019, 07:46 AM   #2
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Hi Fairchild. I will override the program anytime I don't agree with the line it has selected. I find that this happens maybe 5% of the time. The program does an excellent job of selecting lines.
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Old 02-05-2019, 10:36 AM   #3
Mitch44
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Those that don't review the automatic procedure will pay the price of having more losers. It does not take long to review. What I have found is that the program uses the last 3 lines rather than the last 3 lines at a comparable distance and surface.


Every horse has a best distance and surface. Even very classy horses can compete at different distances and surfaces however their best races as indicated by wins, best total energy or best Preceptor which can indicate a specific distance or surface. Trainers and owners frequently enter their horses at inappropriate conditions because no other race is available in the condition book and they have a sharp horse, don't want to pay the shipping costs,or are just plain inept. And there is lots of that. What better time to try something than when the horse is sharp or peak form. Such as turf, the horse will have no excuse and what do they learn if the horse is out of form? Nothing
at all.


It is a fact that the further one goes back for a line the less likelihood its the same horse.(form factor) Sartin recommended never going back past the 5th line. Also that the further one goes back the % of having the correct line drops off, or in other words more line #1 win that lines 5 etc. This has more to do with the form factor of a horse than what the actual line is.

While I ignore the guideline of the 5th line I'm successful at it because of experience and an analysis of a horses record. There are exception to every rule and most people are rule orientated and lack the experience to make the proper judgmental decisions in rare or unusual situations that are a minority to the norm. Therefore I recommend Sartin guidelines (not rule) of never going past line 5 for a proper pace line. This will capture all but the rarest of situations but will produce better prices and get more winners than restricting one's self to blindly accepting the last 3 lines without verification.

Like Lt1 I override the program whenever I disagree with it. Your brain is smarter than the program.


Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 02-05-2019 at 10:41 AM.
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Old 02-05-2019, 01:37 PM   #4
Fairchild
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Thank you for your replies. I only change the line from what the preceptor has chosen maybe 5% of the time myself. Usually I try to get rid of offtrack lines and lines using a different surface. I have found that when a line doesn't meet the + (+) 0 requirements it generally doesn't meet my requirement of being in the top 5 TE anyway so the horse is tossed out of the contender list.


Mostly, I just wanted to know what others thought about the lines chosen by the preceptor tool. It does do a good job of finding the best line in most cases, but I always look at the race conditions, offtrack and surface factors rather then blindly keeping a line.


Thanks for the replies
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Old 02-05-2019, 02:36 PM   #5
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I don't use off track lines ever,even when todays conditions are sloppy or muddy etc. It has been my experience that the best horse still wins regardless of the off track conditions. The old muddler's axiom just doesn't hold water(pun intended) under close scrutiny,if it ever did.


I'm religiously a firm believer in the Preceptor for picking of pace lines and nothing supersedes it accept perhaps the brain and that's doubtful at best and on rare occasions. The Preceptor outperforms the old + and 0's pace lines. Now why would I say that. Because it detects hidden moves within the pace line that the eye or human brain fails to comprehend and or see. The preceptor considers all 3 Fractions and all Primary Factors. The old school + and 0's from way back when is long past its prime and while they can be used they fail to measure up when compared to the Preceptor and a waste much valuable handicapping time that should be devoted to analysis of factors,tools, analysis of horses PP's, and structure of betting etc.


Now I'm sure the naysayers will chime in and that's fine as to each their own. Its like over 30 flavors of ice cream in that some like a particular flavor and can never get past it to even try the others. Myself I like the flavor that is going to get me the most winners. Horse racing is like medicine or the medical profession in that to be successful one must keep up with new procedures, techniques or kill the patient. Well in horseracing you are the patient.


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Old 02-05-2019, 07:01 PM   #6
Fairchild
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Thanks for the reply. I am always curios about how others use the program. We both use the line chosen by the preceptor tool a high percentage of the time. I now have a related question. When a horse has had 3 terrible races that were all run under similar conditions the preceptor will still pick the best of the three, do you drop that horse from win contention at that time?



What do you do to qualify a horse as a contender? Myself, I look at the BL/BL screen and get rid of any horses that rank worse then 5 on both the Primary and Secondary line scores. Now and then I might keep a horse that ranks 6 if it shows color, but that is seldom. This works well for me and I get a good percentage of winners that generally rank in my top three.
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Old 02-05-2019, 08:49 PM   #7
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In response to your first question, 3 bad races in a row. I would still look as to why I made it a contender in the first place. 3 bad races in a row is not a good sign and indicates the horse is going in the wrong direction. A horse can be given an excuse such as first race after a lay off or a bad race before a lay off. Class should always be looked at because if a horse is too far up in class it can't expect to be competitive. Generally speaking a horse that has been placed properly to surface and distance and has raced 3 bad races as indicated by a declining Preceptor ratings, declining Total Energy or declining Speed Ratings can be safely tossed.


One can get their contenders from eliminating from the bottom BLBL similar to what Sartin recommended by using Total Energy. Actually BLBL is better than Total Energy for getting rid of non contenders. Not sure BLBL was available when Sartin made that recommendation. Caution: do not use the Preceptor for eliminating contenders as it measures a horse against its self within the horses PP's. It does not consider other factors such as the matchup against the other horses within the race. BLBL supersedes it when comparing against other horses best Preceptor lines. Also BLBL is better than the Primary line score although they may be close the BLBL will produce more winners.


Having said all that it works when one can pick the correct pace line to be rated. Most have a problem even using the Preceptor because they refuse to go past the last line or some other ancient idea they cling to. Stubborn resistance to change is the Achilles heel of most handicappers.


Also the BLBL is dependent on a single correct pace line. I would recommend that this pitfall or punji stake trap can be and should be avoided for contenders. How you may ask? By using something that is a composite rating that is not dependent on any one race or line. Within RDSS there are several factors for this such as CR, CR+, CSR, APV, RX 1 & 3 Etc. The RX factors are weighted by the proper picking of pace lines also and I believe their better suited for analysis than the picking of contenders. Of these I prefer the CR for various reasons. All of these can have its own pitfalls as to how their obtained such as not being surface or distance specific but their not dependent on the proper choosing of one specific pace line. They quickly eliminate non contenders and save time for analysis of contenders after pace lines have been chosen.There are also some excellent composites outside of the program such as from BRIS which I use.


Using a composite for contenders can and should greatly increase your chance for success.


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Old 02-05-2019, 09:40 PM   #8
Bill V.
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Hello Mitch

You wrote :
Quote:
One can get their contenders from eliminating from the bottom BLBL similar to what Sartin recommended by using Total Energy. Actually, BLBL is better than Total Energy for getting rid of noncontenders. Not sure BLBL was available when Sartin made that recommendation.
Yes BLBL has been around since Pace Launcher 4
This is when Doc began to teach using the top 5 Total Energy and Top 5
Primary Line score,

Thanks, Mitch for your lessons on this subject

Good Skill
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Old 02-08-2019, 08:55 AM   #9
mick
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Using multiple pacelines

Hi, Fairchild. If you're stumped choosing a paceline, you can select multiple pacelines and RDSS will crunch through all of them for you. You simply hold down the Ctrl key and check additional pacelines. It's discussed on page 37 of the Illustrated Glossary.

And thanks, Mitch, for your excellent posts.
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Old 02-08-2019, 09:48 AM   #10
Fairchild
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Smile

Thanks Mick
I will look that up.
Most races the PP lines to use are easy to see. I was just curious what you guys thought about the preceptor and how you work around horses that preceptor chose off tracks for and when preceptor chooses races that are many days ago.
Last night at Delta I avoided horses that hadn't ran for a long time and got bit. In race 2 I got beat by a horse that had not ran in over 300 days and in race 4 the horse had not ran in over 200 days. In FTL's posts he states that those horses only win around 5% of their races, I used up my 5% last night. That"s the breaks
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