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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 09-06-2019, 08:24 PM   #51
Mitch44
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Your welcome oswaldrha. The # 3 got the place with a longshot beating him.


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Old 09-07-2019, 11:21 AM   #52
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Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
Your welcome oswaldrha. The # 3 got the place with a longshot beating him.


Mitch44
Hi Mitch

I worked the race last night
The winner # 5 coming off a win line rates low

I happen to be reading Modern Pace Handicapping by Tom Brohamer .
He says to avoid in record keeping in a Brohamer model the lowest
class races on the ground. He writes they are often are won by form and recency Not so much by readouts'
I am not sure about AP but a CL4000 looks pretty low/cheap
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Old 09-08-2019, 02:22 PM   #53
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Even through the #5 won his last race he still was taking to huge a step up for my liking and from the cheapness of this race could not see him repeating a win, repeaters are unusual at this level. Your correct Bill his win line rated low.

After the question and analysis I decided to do AP for the day. I don't know what happen to the racing at AP but the card was exceptionally real ugly. It seemed that I was the best one half Ex. and DD player most of the day and found myself behind.

The 8th and final race I thought was the best race on the card and I had a very good handle on it. Hit the DD to get my money back and won a whopping $2.30 for the day.

2019-09-06 14:46:18 Bet Arlington 7 Double $5.00 4 + 6 + 7 / 2 + 3 $30.00 $225.50

Profit/Loss 25 12.00%+0.01 $280.00 $282.30 $+2.30

Beats losing and I always have the attitude that I'm only one race away from getting my money back or making a nice profit.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 09-08-2019 at 02:30 PM.
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Old 11-23-2019, 12:31 PM   #54
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RDSS2 & Paceline Selection

Michael Pizzolla's software is on the expensive side.
However, he has software ( Post Time Daily) that shows the actual past performances.
We need similar in RDSS 2 to assist us in selecting the appropriate paceline.
Last line & preceptor processes are not fitting.
For consideration.
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Old 11-23-2019, 02:37 PM   #55
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Michael Pizzolla's software is on the expensive side.
However, he has software ( Post Time Daily) that shows the actual past performances.
We need similar in RDSS 2 to assist us in selecting the appropriate paceline.
Last line & preceptor processes are not fitting.
For consideration.
The thing about the methodology and RDSS is that all the analysis screens are calculated and adjusted based on a formula that is used only for download Sartin programs.
nobody else can see these numbers.

You can get the same paceline info from the much less expensive RDSS
program by looking at the original tab PP'S. The problem is then you will have to hand enter the lines or export the original lines to a classic dos program.

If you did 20 races using the original lines and 20 races using the adjusted lines. Your win percentage will be about the same either way.

But I am sure your ROI will be better using the adjusted lines on the analysis
screens. The reason is the Sartin adjusted lines will find the longshots. The original lines show you the same information that EVERYBODY sees.
Therefore the prices will be lower

I would send Tim (LT1) Mitch, and Richard (RMath) a private message.
They are all long-time winners who use the Adjusted numbers.

Last edited by Bill V.; 11-23-2019 at 02:39 PM.
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Old 11-23-2019, 05:54 PM   #56
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There are lots of tools within RDSS to select pace lines. You could compare lines using BLBL, Total Pace or even use Total Energy. Its up to the individual to decide what their comfortable with using through their own records or knowledge of the program.


For actual Past Performances I would recommend Bris PP's as their the most complete I know of and I use them to supplement the RDSS program. With a Bris account one can get them essentially for free.


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Old 12-02-2019, 03:34 PM   #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
In my model of 237 races
here are the days since last race and winning prices for horses that paid $10
or higher

Attachment 47683
Attachment 47684
Attachment 47685
Notice how few horses win off of layoffs more than 90 days. This holds true for NYRA tracks also
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Old 12-03-2019, 07:47 AM   #58
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The object of the game is to pick winners. Favorites also lose a high percentage of the time but the objective is to know when to go against a favorite or use it as a key / single for a P4.P6 etc.

If you can't deal with everyday situational handicapping one will never win at this game. Legit favorites, layoff horses, stretch outs, cutbacks class risers etc.(note: these are just a few) are everyday occurrences that the public can't handle and defy statistics otherwise this game would not exist. Either learn how to counterattack these situations or get annihilated.

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Old 12-05-2019, 12:47 PM   #59
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Different Tracks

Quote:
Originally Posted by gandalf380 View Post
Notice how few horses win off of layoffs more than 90 days. This holds true for NYRA tracks also
Hello Charlie

I am sure that other thracks have different data, But as you point out
the NYRA tracks and So Cal tracks are similar

Anything over 90 days, the win percent drops very low.

Here is a review of my DMR - SA Model
I have 1367 races. But there were 87 FTS
The chart shows the number of winners who raced between 6 and 30 days
The sweet spot is right around 4 week
to the right, I have broken down the number of races won out of the 1280 race

Name:  Update.PNG
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Old 12-05-2019, 01:07 PM   #60
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I believe pretty much everyone agrees that horses returning from long layoffs are usually bad bets. I would like to point out that before automatically tossing these runners that one, in my opinion, should take into consideration the caliber of the field, the trainers' ability to win with these types, the horse itself ie has it won or run well off this type of layoff, and finally will you be compensated well enough if you decide to wager on it. I have made some nice scores when following this routine.
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