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Old 08-06-2017, 10:57 AM   #1
mick
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Saratoga Turf and Outside Posts

Most handicappers know that an outside post in a route is bad. At Saratoga, an outside draw in a turf race, sprint or route, is almost as bad. As of yesterday, those outside posts (10, 11, 12+) were 3 for 71.
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Old 08-06-2017, 11:42 AM   #2
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Also, the turf courses seem to be very firm and favoring speed. Horses are not making up much ground in the stretch on the turf. Unfortunately, Jose Ortiz hasn't figured that out yet.
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Old 08-07-2017, 11:09 AM   #3
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Turf course

If yesterday was any example, the two turf route races ran in around 1:14 2nd calls. That in my view is very slow. There can only be a few explanations such as the actual course itself or just slow early horses. Horses that have been successful running sustained against 2nd call of 1:09 and change are nowhere to be found at the finish. In the 8th race yesterday one E off a last line of 1:13.7 got the lead and placed at 30/1.
Until they start carding some races with fast E horses, these "Boat Races"
will continue!
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Old 08-07-2017, 12:00 PM   #4
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The NY jocks are notorious for holding their horses back on the turf and making one late run. Even horses on the lead run slow times. During the Bel meet Joel Rosario stole several races by gunning to the front and left all the others with too much to do. Joe Bravo here at Sar has recognized what was happening a made an early move at least twice to win races.
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Old 08-07-2017, 01:04 PM   #5
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Tim,
No offense intended but I am not a big conspiracy guy and I have never seen any patterns that I could recognize that would lead me to believe that there are those kind of behaviors going on.
Horses who want to go, generally go when and where they want to. If he's lucky, a jock weights 10% of a horse. That's why you have 130-140 lb exercise riders that are built like a linebacker and its all they can do to hold horses back in the mornings. Turf racing is a different beast. Many young horses that don't have the early speed to contend on the dirt or poly get sent to the turf. In a lot of these races you will see horses that are very sustained that can run on in sprints and in good time but sent longer they just have no punch because there isn't the deceleration of the horses in front of them. If you have the card pull up yesterdays 8th and 11th at SAR and you will see what I mean. Compare the dirt times and running lines against the turf lines. Well bred slow horses happen too. Out West where I am you don't see this as much. Del Mar, Santa Anita and old Hollywood were short fast turf courses especially in the summer and during the drought.
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Old 08-07-2017, 02:38 PM   #6
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Mark I'm not talking any conspiracy. It's been talked about over and over about the way the jocks ride the turf courses. Andy Serling goes crazy about it. It's not unusual to see 115s and 116s for 3/4s. Calvary charges to the wire involving multiple horses are not uncommon. It's just something you get use to seeing. It doesn't effect the way I handicap the race since I know I have the winner in the program 85- 90%. It's up to me to flush it out by selecting the proper pacelines and using the readouts and my model.
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Old 08-07-2017, 04:57 PM   #7
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I don't see it

Admittedly, I was primarily a West Coast handicapper until about 20 years ago and I have been at this game for over 50 years, I don't see what you are describing.
If a jock is going to take a hold of a horse that wants to run early, he really has to throw a hammerlock on him. Generally you can see this by the jockey's posture. His hands will be low and he will be leaning back which causes his feet in the stirrups to be forced in front of the girth. On a stronger animal, the jockey's feet will be well out in front.
Additionally, if a jockey does not follow his or her trainer instructions, he won't ride again for that trainer, at least for a good while.
The best jockey's have a clock in their head or they steal a look at the tote board and will know how fast they are going. Saratoga has the best riders on the East Coast as well as the best trainers and stables.
Something is out of whack that is for sure. They may have re-positioned the first timer beam right up on the gate or they have soaked the turf. If the latter was the case you would see a lot of divots flying around particularly on the turns.
I haven't played Saratoga alot in the past so I don't have alot to go other than what I have watched this meet. I just checked the Run-up distances on the inside and outside turf courses. At 8.5f the inner course has a run-up of 18ft while the outside turf course is 112 ft. That is significant, about 5 strides worth. When they switch to the outside course, you will see the 2nd calls drop substantially.
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