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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 11-10-2017, 04:31 PM   #31
Mitch44
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I decided to download this race and do it. These are the lines I would have used:


#1 L 5 Note: had two routes and a sly line in last 4
#2 L 3
#3 L 3
#4 L 6 Note: had two poly and a sly in last 3
#5 L 3
#6 L 3
#7 L 3
Now how about this, 5 of the 7 the correct line was Line 3. Not necessarily the norm
and strange considering the topic here.

The winner # 3 paying $ 15.80 was second on BLBL using L 3 and ranked / tiered 6th using L 3 . I concur with Bill V. that the only correct line way and to get this winner was to use L 3.



As a side the # 4 placed triggering a $ 103.20 EX. and was a greatly improved horse in last 3, even on the improvement I would not have had it for the EX.


Keep the money Bill.
Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 11-10-2017 at 04:35 PM.
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Old 11-10-2017, 06:53 PM   #32
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Ok but all I know I've been following what Doc told me over 20 yrs ago and it works very well for me. Just to be clear I wasn't inferring that turn time should be used as a stand alone. This is what I like to call situational handicapping and is not used to predict the winner but rather to see if a mdn going against winners should be downgraded no matter its tier rating. As usual nothing works 100% of the time but I'll make this move every time. I would suggest that those interested if it works do what Mitch and I do all the time do a 100 race survey. If it works consider keeping it if it doesn't chuck it.
Tim
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Old 11-10-2017, 07:51 PM   #33
For The Lead
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Using ENERGY

Here is my look at the horse and race being discussed using ENERGY.

There are no horses with a ML of 20/1 or higher and there are no horses that haven’t raced in the last 90 days, so there are no eliminations there.

Except horse #1, who gets no line, all other horses do get a line.
Horses 4,5,6 and 7 all raced on either a sloppy or good track in their last race, therefore, the original guidelines indicate going back one line. I did.
All of these horses had a qualifying line in line 2, so that is the line chosen for them.
Horses 2 and 3 had a qualifying race on their last line, so that is the line used for those two horses.


I understand that when total energy shows a discrepancy of more than 2 points the #2 adjust should be used. I didn’t use it. All other horses are within 2 points of each other.
Actually, the #4 horse, with the very high total energy, disrupts the readouts as you will see.

The variegate indicates “EARLY” and every early factor points towards the winner, #3.

ENERGY does not look for the fastest final time horse, so speed ratings and total energy were not the determining factors for the program.
Instead, ENERGY looked at the match-ups of the contenders and determined which horse(s) were the most likely winners on that basis.

I always credited ENERGY as “Doc’s” best attempt at a program that actually “handicaps” a race.
Of course, all of his original guidelines were in effect at that time and they are still good more than 30 years later!!

Here are the readouts.
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Old 11-10-2017, 08:10 PM   #34
Mitch44
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There is great value in doing your own surveys ,studies and by doing them their never forgotten.


Sartin didn't take things at face value and kept records and conducted research to find out for himself what was fact vs. fiction. Many times things aren't what they seem and then again things change. We both make moves based on known percentages from lessons learned and surveys conducted.

One lesson here is to be consistent in your approach, once found through research.
The odds of guessing a heads or tails on a coin is 50-50. But with pure guessing and a hap hazard approach you'll never hit 50% but if you were to always guess heads every time them you'll win every time heads comes up and win 50%. Works the same if decided to take tails every time. Consistency!


Consistency of approach to selecting pace lines is the same as flipping a coin., to get the maximum % a consistent procedure must be applied. I would suggest Sartin's recommended procedure that's been thoroughly tested. That is best of the last 3 at comparable SURFACE and DISTANCE.


Maybe Bill can post the PP from RDSS for this horse and race and you can determine what lines you would have chosen as compared to mine.


Take LT1 recommendation and watch the 1998 tapes of Sartin. It'll up your game, but only watch them if you want to win.


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Old 11-10-2017, 08:16 PM   #35
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Appreciate the workup of the race using Energy

Jeff
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Old 11-10-2017, 09:55 PM   #36
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Very interesting 2 different programs, different line selections and what do you know same winner. I wish I would have known this was going to spark such interest since I would have liked to work the race myself just to see what I would have come up with.
Tim
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Old 11-10-2017, 11:06 PM   #37
Mitch44
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Parts of Energy are within the RDSS program however it was an earlier program that the "Doc" abandoned as he evolved and created better programs.


Having been a user of EXDC the problem with it was which adjustment to use. Picking the correct adjustment after the fact was always easy but prior to an actual bet not so easy, and a problem for too many users. Bottom line is it won't nor will any earlier programs outperform his later programs such as those that came later from about Val 4 and after. Even Valadator evolved from earlier versions.The problems of adjustments were solved and a more proficient product was developed.


Deceleration was also honed from its earliest concept to V/DC. What's in the present RDSS is the best he ever came up with and some things from all previous programs. IMO While any earlier program will produce winners they won't on the scale that the present RDSS does.


Sartin knew where the future was going in the early 90's and told some teachers to learn the new concepts and programs or they'll no longer be a teaching member and did it in front of all the attendees. Specifically Elliot Sidewinder. I believe that's the correct spelling of his name, if not its close enough. If corrected I can look it up. Brohammer was one another but did adapt while others faded.

Members are free to choose whatever program they want to use and any way they want to choose pace lines. They damn sure wouldn't receive Sartin's blessings if he were alive today.


Mitch44

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Old 11-11-2017, 04:40 AM   #38
Mark
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Basic Skills

This is not an avocation for the faint of heart, easily discouraged or those struggling to pay their bills and working a lot of hours to do so.
BE FOREWARNED!
1. You have to develop the skill to assess speed. Who has run the best(fastest) against the fastest early pace: An early pace that is likely to be encountered today. That is the benchmark. Doesn't matter what line in the horse's pps, whether last month or 2 years ago. Now you have the basis for comparison.
2. Learn to disqualify horses as follows: a) is the horse still a horse? b) Has he changed his Running style and become a slow horse? c) If Early, can he still get on top of his fractions? These are Jim Bradshaw's qualifying questions in accepting or rejecting deep pacelines.
Long Layoffs are a good thing! It shows that the connections think enough of the animal to turn him out at the farm or otherwise pay feed, board and vet bills to get the horse sound again. Generally, the 3rd race off a 200+ day layoff is the money run. If you limit your paceline selection to the best of the last comparable you will not get this horse until you look at his pps after the race and see that perfect line 5 or 6 deep. Horses other than youngsters very seldom improve linearly. When they get racing fit, they jump back to that old top or near it, given a similar pace scenario.

Good Luck
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Old 11-11-2017, 10:12 AM   #39
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Long Layoffs are a good thing

Good luck with this one especially at the cheaper tracks
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Old 11-11-2017, 10:23 AM   #40
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Thanks

Thanks FTL and Mitch
thank you for taking the time to show examples that support how you handicapped the race .

Here is what happens when If I had used line 1

Name:  BLBL.PNG
Views: 332
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Tim Doc's guide lines (not rules) about looking at turn time in maiden wins is supported here
It ran a much better TT in line 3 (maiden win) than it did in line 1
All three of her lines are recent. Less than 70 days
Preceptor does a great job in showing that line 3 was superior to line 1
in many readouts .
To me I interpret Doc's guidelines as, Rate the maiden win line against the best lines of the winners. If the turn time is weak eliminate the maiden win.
Horse 3 clearly rates well in the maiden line. So It belongs in this contender mix.

Ted's has great advice, The horse runs as fast as it needs to win
Line 1 is a + line and a win It appears based on the RDSS readouts
that it was the # 2 EP horse and the #1 FX. It looks like it got a early lead and was unchallenged going nearly wire to wire

Line 3 shows a strong move in the 2nd and 3rd fraction with good readouts in LPR CPR TT and Hidden energy, and deceleration and total energy
So line 3 will rate better in ANY Sartin program

Thanks
Good Skill
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