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2008 Breeders' Cup 2008

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Old 10-22-2008, 01:07 PM   #1
Ted Craven
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BC Classic

First Cut

Euros are omitted (#4 #5 #8) - I don't know how to rate them...

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Old 10-22-2008, 03:19 PM   #2
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Hi,

I think the europeans have a good chance this year. The Gosden runner Raven's Pass has a really good chance. The trainer has a good record on the all weather in Britain. The O Brien team is difficult to split. Well, the horses are really good, but can they go well on sand ? I do not know.
All the europeans will get good odds, in my opinion, so I will take a chance with these.

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Old 10-22-2008, 03:36 PM   #3
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So it appears Curlin is not a lock?! Can't get to it until Fri night.
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Old 10-22-2008, 04:08 PM   #4
literato
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hello all

this is my 1st post, I'm French and I also think that the European ones will give a good counterpart has Curlin which has the appearance of a scarecrow. In particular duke of
marmalade which will be better at this distance than that of the ARC DE TRIOMPHE.
about raven's pass and henrythenavigator what worries me is who will address this distance for the 1st time, otherwise it is 2 horses also very class

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Old 10-22-2008, 04:46 PM   #5
Ted Craven
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Bienvenue Chris!

Well, I live and die by the numbers (though I've got my antennae raised for mind transmissions direct from Curlin ). I'm just not sure which numbers!

Just because several animals rank higher than Curlin (on some of my readouts) doesn't mean that the young fella won't rise to the occasion. He didn't earn that overwhelming Class Rating (marked RED) by being inconsistent. Go Between has run (extremely well) against inferior company, and is 5 years old. Tiago is an infuriating horse (for me) who closes from the moon (like his brother Giacomo) and must contend precisely with the entire parade in front of him to get there first. All 3 are clearly at the top of their game.

Duke and Henry have classy Group 1 success - and consistency: the next 2 class horses after Curlin. I'll have to hold my nose and consider this a prep race for them over a new surface (same with Raven).

I'll narrow my selection on Saturday.

Merci bien pour votre avis!

Ted
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Old 10-22-2008, 04:48 PM   #6
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Just some thoughts.....

It will be very interesting to see if any horse that has not run on a synthetic surface before, such as Curlin, the 3 Europeans, Fairbanks, and Smooth Air run to their potential. This may well be the critical handicapping factor.

If you use each European's best Racing Post rating of 129-130+ and translate them to the Beyer scale, you would get Beyers of 113-114. Curlin and Student Council ran 112's in 2008 and the best Santa Anita Beyer in 2008 belongs to Go Between with a 109, so the Europeans would appear to be competitive. While this conversion is by no means exact, I don't think it's completely crazy either.

Obvious problem is the Europeans all come from turf courses, and only Henry's comes from a firm course condition. We know the Duke can get the 10f, but can he get them on Pro Ride? We don't even know if Henry or Raven's can get the 10f, let alone get it on Pro Ride.

If you believe in Tomlinson's breeding info, Duke has a distance rating of 317 and we know he can get the distance. Henry has a 348 which would SUGGEST he could get it but Raven's has a rating of 284, which might SUGGEST he would not go 10f comfortably.

Also keep in mind the early pace in those European turf routes tends to be pretty slow. HOWEVER, to be honest, I don't see an absolutely "need to lead" horse in this race.

Will Casino Drive try to steal it from the inside or will Fairbanks rush up for the lead from the outside with Colonel John pressing? Based on the European's comments, Henry and Raven's should both go positionally sustained here. Duke, on the other hand, has won by "tracking the leaders" and just missed winning twice on the lead. He lost by a nk and 1 length and on both occassions, was a fighter until the finish line. Can he handle the early pace here - it may not be that fast.

So, come to think of it, early pace and positioning AND Pro Ride may be the key factors here.

Whatever you do, don't take a short price.

Last edited by lsosa54; 10-22-2008 at 04:51 PM.
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Old 10-22-2008, 05:05 PM   #7
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According to trainer report Ravens is going to be ridden prominent, so i'd say he'll be within 3 of leader
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Old 10-22-2008, 05:31 PM   #8
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Curlin, Duke, Colonel and maybe Henry

Even though i think he could see these off, I couldn't bet Curlin at below 5-2/3-1 on Pro-Ride debut

Duke is a fighter, but comes here after some tough races, tempting though if double figures

Colonel is my outsider, home soil so climate no prob, distance no prob and if the above big two fail for whatever reason, i can see this guy kicking some butt

Henry is interesting, by Kingmambo, pedigree for 10f, but i'm not quite convinced he's got what it takes to rough up an on song Curlin, Duke and Colonel


Just gotta wait and see what's on offer Saturday
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Old 10-22-2008, 09:56 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Charlie D View Post
According to trainer report Ravens is going to be ridden prominent, so i'd say he'll be within 3 of leader
Charlie, I wish Mr. Gosden luck. In all his turf miles, the horse has been kept 5th or further back except for his next to last race, which was on an off turf course and was run in the slowest final time of any of his mile races.
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Old 10-24-2008, 10:16 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lsosa54 View Post
It will be very interesting to see if any horse that has not run on a synthetic surface before, such as Curlin, the 3 Europeans, Fairbanks, and Smooth Air run to their potential. This may well be the critical handicapping factor.

If you use each European's best Racing Post rating of 129-130+ and translate them to the Beyer scale, you would get Beyers of 113-114. Curlin and Student Council ran 112's in 2008 and the best Santa Anita Beyer in 2008 belongs to Go Between with a 109, so the Europeans would appear to be competitive. While this conversion is by no means exact, I don't think it's completely crazy either.

Obvious problem is the Europeans all come from turf courses, and only Henry's comes from a firm course condition. We know the Duke can get the 10f, but can he get them on Pro Ride? We don't even know if Henry or Raven's can get the 10f, let alone get it on Pro Ride.

If you believe in Tomlinson's breeding info, Duke has a distance rating of 317 and we know he can get the distance. Henry has a 348 which would SUGGEST he could get it but Raven's has a rating of 284, which might SUGGEST he would not go 10f comfortably.

Also keep in mind the early pace in those European turf routes tends to be pretty slow. HOWEVER, to be honest, I don't see an absolutely "need to lead" horse in this race.

Will Casino Drive try to steal it from the inside or will Fairbanks rush up for the lead from the outside with Colonel John pressing? Based on the European's comments, Henry and Raven's should both go positionally sustained here. Duke, on the other hand, has won by "tracking the leaders" and just missed winning twice on the lead. He lost by a nk and 1 length and on both occassions, was a fighter until the finish line. Can he handle the early pace here - it may not be that fast.

So, come to think of it, early pace and positioning AND Pro Ride may be the key factors here.

Whatever you do, don't take a short price.
Nice post. I'm guessing it'll be like Ocean's 11...an inside job with Casino Drive.
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