Breeders Cup Marathon - Friday 11/6 - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 11-04-2009, 05:30 AM

"The Hat's" concepts on these marathons can be found here:
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2026

Race 3 on Fridays card

RichieP · 11-04-2009, 05:34 AM

The field

RichieP · 11-04-2009, 05:38 AM

cont

Bill V. · 11-05-2009, 05:47 AM

Hi Rich
sorry I need to pass this one
too many FH's
Good Skill to you

Bill

Charlie D · 11-05-2009, 09:54 AM

Hi Bill

You can eliminate some FH using tandem. ie:

Father Time beaten by Mastery X 2 - OUT

You can use Muhannak's current form and last years running line to eliminate him.

So now your're only left with 2 FH and using Hats method of 6.2 per 1/5f you should be able to eliminate one or other that are left.

Charlie D · 11-05-2009, 10:10 AM

This is not The Hats Method of Matching, but it is it a kind of Matching and when we don't have A, B, C info we use what info we do have.

Mr Hat - "the speedfigures will tell you"

Look at Timeform ratings of Mastery and Man Of Iron, latter cannot beat former according to those - Man of Iron - OUT???

Bill Lyster · 11-05-2009, 01:57 PM

Charlie:

I've eliminated down to:
#1 Black Astor - a horse that should be on or near the lead at the mile call; can't win if its not. Last race was waaaay too fast early and it doesn't look like any burners in here, so this is my pace horse.

#3 Nite Light - probably right behind BA

#4 Cloudys Knight - who will close from either 4th or 5th

#6 Mastery - with only the comparable ratings of 117 which are the equal of Black Astor and a look at his last race.

My win candidates are the 1 and the 6.

Good luck tomorrow.

Charlie D · 11-05-2009, 03:23 PM

Good stuff Bill

Nite Light likes to be close to lead , so i think it will sit on shoulder or just in behind Black Astor, seeing BA off at around 10f

Mastery should be close in behind these two and the battle for winners circle will be between Mastery and Nite Light i reckon too, with Mastery coming out on top.

The lack of any real Pace pressure probably means anything not up near lead may be up severly disadvantaged.

Any 5-2 about and i'm on Mastery.

RichieP · 11-06-2009, 04:01 PM

The European hammering begins

tfm · 11-06-2009, 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RichieP

The European hammering begins

That was anything but a hammering. If Homeister doesn't move too soon, the 4 wins easily. What else is new?

11-04-2009, 05:34 AM	#2
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	The field Attached Images

11-05-2009, 09:54 AM	#5
Charlie D Match Up Apprentice Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,105	Hi Bill You can eliminate some FH using tandem. ie: Father Time beaten by Mastery X 2 - OUT You can use Muhannak's current form and last years running line to eliminate him. So now your're only left with 2 FH and using Hats method of 6.2 per 1/5f you should be able to eliminate one or other that are left. __________________ "To me, The Match Up supercedes everything"

11-05-2009, 03:23 PM	#8
Charlie D Match Up Apprentice Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,105	Good stuff Bill Nite Light likes to be close to lead , so i think it will sit on shoulder or just in behind Black Astor, seeing BA off at around 10f Mastery should be close in behind these two and the battle for winners circle will be between Mastery and Nite Light i reckon too, with Mastery coming out on top. The lack of any real Pace pressure probably means anything not up near lead may be up severly disadvantaged. Any 5-2 about and i'm on Mastery. __________________ "To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" Last edited by Charlie D; 11-05-2009 at 03:37 PM.

11-06-2009, 04:01 PM	#9
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Result The European hammering begins Attached Images

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Marathon Friday Night - The John Henry	RichieP	Matchup Discussion	5	10-31-2009 05:37 AM
Friday night distaster at Hastings	Tim Y	General Discussion	0	07-17-2009 12:51 PM
Marathon Breeder's Cup Race 1	RichieP	2008	2	10-25-2008 01:25 PM

11-04-2009, 05:30 AM	#1
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Breeders Cup Marathon - Friday 11/6 "The Hat's" concepts on these marathons can be found here: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2026 Race 3 on Fridays card Attached Images

11-04-2009, 05:38 AM	#3
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	cont Attached Images

11-05-2009, 05:47 AM	#4
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Fh Hi Rich sorry I need to pass this one too many FH's Good Skill to you Bill

11-05-2009, 10:10 AM	#6
Charlie D Match Up Apprentice Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,105	This is not The Hats Method of Matching, but it is it a kind of Matching and when we don't have A, B, C info we use what info we do have. Mr Hat - "the speedfigures will tell you" Look at Timeform ratings of Mastery and Man Of Iron, latter cannot beat former according to those - Man of Iron - OUT??? __________________ "To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" Last edited by Charlie D; 11-05-2009 at 10:17 AM.

11-05-2009, 01:57 PM	#7
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Charlie: I've eliminated down to: #1 Black Astor - a horse that should be on or near the lead at the mile call; can't win if its not. Last race was waaaay too fast early and it doesn't look like any burners in here, so this is my pace horse. #3 Nite Light - probably right behind BA #4 Cloudys Knight - who will close from either 4th or 5th #6 Mastery - with only the comparable ratings of 117 which are the equal of Black Astor and a look at his last race. My win candidates are the 1 and the 6. Good luck tomorrow.