Illinois Derby 4-19-14

[chris]

Midnight Hawk has characteristics similar to Bodemiester, remember him from the Derby preps a few years back? That is, besides being sent to the post as a can't loose betting proposition, he was also hanger and beaten as a prohibitive favorite.

Midnight Hawk's last three races have a disturbing similarity; he's bid, or been on the lead, at the 8th pole, and allowed one or more horses to pass him!
Again, not once, but three times. I'm comfortable calling this a pattern. And yes he's he lost to some powerful horses, but subsequent events vindicated my observation that this is a hanger! Some horses eventually overcome these tendencies, others don't. But my concern is today.

The late William Scott (handicapping author) chronicled hanging as a prime form defect, especially telling when it's carried by the favorite.
I don't have a winning Superfecta to post (my preferred bet) and my small winning ticket was inconsequential; but I continue to observe that Scott's form defects still hold their own.

Regards,
chris