Paceline selection

[pianoman]

Just wondering out loud how many use Pizzolla's Windows for PP selection? I do mainly for the reason it keeps me out of questionably races. If my first three tiers are mostly the public choices I usually refrain from wagering. Just want to hear some other views.

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by pianoman

Just wondering out loud how many use Pizzolla's Windows for PP selection? I do mainly for the reason it keeps me out of questionably races. If my first three tiers are mostly the public choices I usually refrain from wagering. Just want to hear some other views.

the WINDOW is dynamite for turf but dirt...there are no rights or wrongs just what works. i.e. at some courses when the track turns from black to white (innner Aqueduct this year) NOTHING WORKS.

[Bill V.]

Hi pianoman

If my first three tiers are mostly the public choices I usually refrain from wagering. Just want to hear some other views.

One very good guideline to follow from The Sartin Methodology

If your top 3 are the top 3 public favorites
PASS

Another Sartin Methodology guideline is use
The best of the last 3 lines Concider
using line 4 or line 5 if there are one or two non comparable
interviening lines which is one I follow 100%
so I'm unaware of any plus or minus to the Pizzola window

[bluewaterbill]

Hi Bill V,

Regarding the selection of pacelines, you stated:

"Another Sartin Methodology guideline is use
The best of the last 3 lines Concider
using line 4 or line 5 if there are one or two non comparable
interviening lines which is one I follow 100%"

First, what determines "best"? Speed Rating? And second, how do you handle old races? For example, if the last three lines are comparable to today's race (distance and surface), but the second and third races back are both six months or older, what do you do?

Bill, this is my first post since becoming a member. Paceline selection has been something that I've grappling with for many years. Ken Massa of HTR once told me that there was no method of paceline selection that has proven to be effective. I think his software offers several options for paceline selection.

bluewaterbill

[Ted Craven]

Bluewaterbill,

First, welcome to Pace and Cap! I'll take a crack at your question, but Bill V will chime in too.

If a horse returned from a 6 month layoff and showed life today (e.g. broke well, attended the pace) even if it faded - or if it ran in the money but faced a slower pace of race today than it had previously shown capable when fit, why penalize it by representing it in a matchup by a slower effort than it is capable of? Hence permission to go back to see what it is actually capable of when it needs to, while using some tendency towards a recent part of its form cycle.

There are lots of different possible scenarios for going back, but I try to use a few principles:

1. a horse runs as fast as it needs to, not as fast as it can
2. err on the side of recency
3. don't mix surfaces unless there's no choice (then have confidence in your ITV figs)
4. don't mix distance structures unless you have no choice (also with ITV confidence)
5. for Turf races only, consider using good lines from the entire PP set (if the horse seems fit today)

There are a number of other tips and tricks to judge current form and condition which impact on whether you should forgive recent poorer efforts and go back a bit, which perhaps other members can add from their own arsenal.

In general, finding an excuse to forgive a poor looking last line gets you better odds (though sometimes a cigar is just a cigar and a poor last line, or worse a few poor recent lines, mean just what they look like...)

I respect Massa's advice. The above guidelines will fail sometimes, but succeed often enough at good mutuels to compensate.

Did you have a horse or race example in mind to apply some specifics?

Ted

[Bill V.]

Hello BluewaterBill

Welcome to Pace and Cap

I try to follow Doc's guidelines from private phone instuctions ,My visit to the O'Henry Office, Manuals Videos and mostly from The Follow Ups

I have used a pace line selection method from the beginning which for me
started with PL4 then sysnthesis then all the Validator prorams
Speculator and RDSS

I use and look at only the adjusted paceline screen. I take the paceline
of the last 3 races with the best speed rating Most of the time its the one with the highest number. But If I told you to take the speed rating with the
highest number that would not be what Doc meant by the "Best of the last
3 at a comperable distance surface and class".

I am looking at these 3 or 4 or maybe 5 races for a speed rating
fast enough to compete with the fastest horses in each races
match up. as I open each horses past performance I look at
its last three or so races and get an idea of what a horse can
run from its past speed ratings

In the example here from MNR race 4 # 4
I have selected line 1 with a 74 speed rating. If I were just to say I take
the highest speed ratings of the last three races then I would take line 3 with the 79. But line 3 is not the line for this horse in my opinion
I have explained further in the notepad sub box

I pay little attention to recency for the better APV/CR horses
I am not so quick to go back for lines on horses with poor
APV and Class ratings

Thanks
Bill

[shoeless]

try to find a race that is as recent as possible to today's class and distance.Here are 2 that ran on Sunday

[shoeless]

The first one is from CT today's race at 7 fur 4000NY1,I took his line from Sept 18th he finished 2nd at 18-1.


The second one is from Philly today's race was for 6.5 fur for 25000n4l I went 4 back he won at 9-1.

[bluewaterbill]

Ted and Bill,

I appreciate your replies to my first post so quickly, and I further appreciate the content of them. I can tell that there is much a player can benefit from surfing this forum.

bluewaterbill

[Tim Y]

George Kaywood, a respected handicapper from Kansas City backs up a contention I have long held: "Reliance on a single pace lines is the biggest error in pace evaluation."

SAMPLE error is rampant unless you can see a step wise improvement with that last line the best one in a younger horse. If the animal can deal with a pace, there is evidence down the past performance to show that it met and dealt with it before. Short that error is always knocking on the door.