Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > RDSS
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

RDSS Racing Decision Support System – The Modern Sartin Methodology

 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-13-2009, 08:01 PM   #1
lueylump
AlwNW1X
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 14
As Easy as 1-2-3...

When I say as easy as 1, 2, 3, I do not want to give the false illusion that this game is as easy as printing money because it is not! I have been a student for over 30 years and a serious Sartin student for almost 20. And I have lost a lot of money perfecting my craft, am still learning, and will never believe that I have this sport mastered! I have to be at the top of my game every time I evaluate a race card; willing to do the dirty work (in lieu of shortcuts), if I expect any modicum of success. The race I will present in this thread was an easy race to handicap but it took me evaluating not 1, or 2, but 3 pacelines to realize a horse I initially threw out during my paceline selection process, was indeed a live mount!

The race was the 1 1/16 mile Mervyn Leroy Handicap run at Hollywood Park on 5/9/2009. It was a 6 horse field and when I got to the #3 horse (Ball F) it had a number of negatives working against it:

1. It had not raced in four months and lost that race by 14 lengths;
2. It had a suspect workout pattern;
3. It’s last figures were light compared to this field (although its two races prior to that made it competitive); and
4. I concluded that it was damaged goods and could not win against this field

I chose to use the #3’s last race because I did not want to give it an unfair advantage, and the 3/5 favorite was undefeated, had good early speed (winning four of its five races wire-to-wire), and had won its first five races in game fashion! However my whole perspective changed once I looked at the E/L Difference graph (see first chart below).

The only horse with an early energy distribution (and the highest EPR) was #3, my throw out horse and my interest piqued. I very quickly went back to its past performances and selected its two races prior to its last race and reanalyzed the race. At this point I knew I had a live mount because in each of its races it had an energy distribution that was much lower than the other five horses, and its EPR in each of those races was also much higher than the other horses. The EPR is measured at the second call so in this race there will only be 2 ˝ furlongs for the other horses to run this horse down. The final selling point was the 16/1 post time odds – a HUGE overlay!

In my opinion the post time favorite was a live mount so I used my selection in an Exacta box with the favorite. I also keyed #s 3 and 4 with the other horses in the field in trifecta boxes, betting the 1-3-4 a little heavier because #1 was clearly the other figure horse in the race. Ball F ran straight to the lead without breaking a sweat, repelled the favorite's challenge on the far turn and stretch, and inched away to be clearly the best! Ball F paid $34.00 to win, $39.60 was my exacta price (for a buck), and $104.00 my trifecta return (also for a buck). Not a bad payoff considering the 3/5 and 5/2 lowest-price horses ran 2nd and 3rd.

In summary, do not be prejudiced (either for or) against any horse during the paceline selection process. Let the race unfold without any preconceived notions and take what the race offers you. We have the tools to see things the public cannot see and finding winners can be as easy as 1-2-3!
Attached Images
  
lueylump is offline  
Old 05-13-2009, 11:09 PM   #2
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Huntsville, Ontario, Canada
Posts: 7,253
A great analysis, and fine win! One comment though, you mention that the Early Energy distribution of the winner consistently wins route dirt and Turf races. That is fairly counter to popular wisdom and to my own general experience: I find Late energy distribution typically wins routes and Turf races and do not normally look to the early horses there.

It does make complete sense, on the other hand, your characterization of the winner as a Lone Early horse, and a dominant one at that, who will be unhurried and persist to the end. As we know, the Match Up trumps all; I only fret that some may be confused about the 'Late energy wins routes and Turf' observation, when the opposite is stated routinely and frequently, elsewhere.

Comments?

Ted
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™ Follow on Twitter @SartinMethod
Ted Craven is offline  
Old 05-14-2009, 12:51 AM   #3
lueylump
AlwNW1X
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 14
Quote:
At this point I knew I had a live mount because in each of its races it had an energy distribution that was much lower than the other five horses,
Before I address Ted's question I wanted to correct an error with the post, the phrase should have stated, "At this point I knew I had a live mount because in each of its races it had an energy distribution that was much higher than the other five horses,"
lueylump is offline  
Old 05-14-2009, 02:21 AM   #4
lueylump
AlwNW1X
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 14
Ted, the one absolute I learned from Doc Sartin is "There are no absolutes!" Thus converntional wisdom should be thrown out the window when it comes to wagercapping. This has been an evolutionary process but one of the hardest changes I made (and am still making) in my handicapping is not wagering on the best horse in a field, but wagering on the horse with the best matchup in a field. My latest example of that was keying Dunkirk in the Kentucky Derby instead of Mine That Bird, even though Mine that Bird had the best matchup.

There are a couple of reasons for betting an early horse in either a dirt or turf route:

1) It can go to the lead, relax on the lead, and have energy in reserve for the stretch;
2) It can have good early position, stalk the pace, conserve its energy, and still have energy in reserve for the stretch; or
It can run like Mine that Bird, relax, lag far behind, and show a tremendous burst of acceleration in the far turn and stretch.

Provided it is not a "need to lead" frontrunner that grabs the lead and folds in which case it is a throw out, horses of this nature normally have tremendous acceleration (compared to the rest of the field) and it is just a matter of when it uses that acceleration in a race. An early energy horse does not have to run an early energy race to win!

In the race above take Ball F's race from its third paceline. In that race it showed late energy of -3.0. The next lowest late energy horse was -14.0, which means there is an 11 point energy gap between those two horses. It is my contention (provided its other figures are decent), Ball F had a huge match-up advantage compared to the rest of the field on that race alone. I have seen this pattern consistently in route turf and dirt races and regularly capitalize on such horses at decent odds.

What I do is find energy distribution gaps between one or two horses and the rest of the field! It can be an early energy gap like we see above. Or it can be a late energy gap in which a late horse may be able to pick up the pieces and either win or finish strongly to be a factor in gimmick bets. When a horse has a gap in energy distribution compared to the rest of the field, then it has an advantage when matched up against the rest of the horses with similar energy distribution patterns.

It is my position that a late energy horse may or may not fire when its energy distribution pattern is similar to the majority of the horse in the field. But when you have an energy distribution that is dramatically different (either positively or negatively), then that is a good horse to key both win and gimmick bets!
lueylump is offline  
Old 05-14-2009, 09:11 AM   #5
mikesal57
Grade 1
 
mikesal57's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
Hi LL..

This is exactly what I just asked Bill V to start a thread on...

The relationship of the E/L graph vs other horses and Total Energy...

My question...What if the #3 Ball Four didnt show lines 2 & 3.
How would you look at this horse being early but at the bottom of total energy?

thxs mike
__________________
Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack
mikesal57 is offline  
Old 05-14-2009, 10:45 AM   #6
lueylump
AlwNW1X
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 14
Thanks for the question Mike!

Based upon Ball Four's last race I would have wagered on it but much more conservatively because I do not like horses that are confirmed quitters,and it lost by 14 lengths in its last race. However, and in defense of Ball Four, it could not get the lead in the last race and chased a swift pace. The complexion of this race is completely different so I looked for reasons to bet this horse and its previous two races confirmed that I was onto something.

Taking your inquiry a little further, I have found that horses with a higher energy distribution can outperform horses with higher Total (and Hidden) Energy. Horse that consequently rates higher than my early horse on many of the RDSS screens. Sometimes the higher Total Energy horses fire and sometimes they do not. Horses with a match-up advantage based upon energy distribution will almost always give you an honest race provided the jockey does not fight with that horse, exert too much energy too soon (because they do not have to), and let's the horse run its race!

Look at a thread I started in the Energy forum based upon the Derby: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5613. Below are two screen shots from the Derby (I did this race initially in Synthesis but redid it in RDSS after subscribing). Mine that Bird was the only early horse, it had the highest EPR, it had low Total Energy, and had the absolute worse Hidden Energy. What did that horse do, it showed an acceleration like it never showed before and blew the field away!

*****I am having trouble adding the attachments but will try to get them in later*****

Horses with a higher energy distribution will compromise middle of the road runners because it will force them to distribute energy earler than they would like, or if they sit back they will not have the burst of energy to match the Early Energy horse. Early Energy horses real danger comes from horse with very late energy (in route races and just late horses in sprints), because they too can show a burst of energy. And like the Early Energy horse, that burst of energy can come at any point in a race (a very late energy horse can wire a field, stalk the pace and mow the speed down in the stretch, or make one run late)!

Last edited by Ted Craven; 05-14-2009 at 10:55 AM. Reason: made requested edit
lueylump is offline  
Old 05-14-2009, 11:11 AM   #7
mikesal57
Grade 1
 
mikesal57's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
thxs LL...I'm getting to understand it a little better...I see if there is one horse in the field that shows opposite energy in a race ...beware and look deeper..

but what if you have say a 10 horse field and there are 5 early and 5 late...how do u figure this out?

thxs mike
__________________
Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack
mikesal57 is offline  
Old 05-14-2009, 01:08 PM   #8
lueylump
AlwNW1X
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 14
Mike I am not sure I can answer your question definitively because in horse racing there are no absolutes. A lot of factors go into making the final decision but the bottom-line is do I have an advantage because of information I have that is not readily accessible to the general public? If the answer is yes then I will play the race, but if not it is a pass. My decison-making is based on years of experience, recognizing winning patterns (you have to do post mortems on your racing activity, gut instinct, and information from RDSS or Synthesis.

Some of the factors that go into my final decision is distance, running style, tandem races, the matchup of a contender's previous race(s), separating legitimate early horses from speed bumps or horses that are money burning quitters; assessing horses that will be both helped and hurt by today's matchup; asessing horses that are in the best position to close against the pace of today's race, improving horses vs. declining horses, identifying the horses that are proven closers against the pace of a race, etc., etc., etc.

It is still my contention that projecting what will happen on the front-end of a race is the key to understanding how a race will be run and finding the best horse to survive today's matchup (and hopefully pay a decent price). If more than four horses look legitimate then I will pass the race. If three horses look legitimate then (based upon odds) I will bet the two horses with the highest odds unless I can bet all three to win and still make a very profitable wager. And if two horses look legitimate I will bet both unless one is a very low odds horse and then only bet the higher odds horse. If only one looks good, then I will bet it unless once again it is a very low odds horse.

*****Below are the charts from my previous post*****
Attached Images
  
lueylump is offline  
 

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Handicapping discussions made easy Tim Y Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum 8 09-04-2009 05:52 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:54 PM.