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07-25-2014, 03:31 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 593
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Jim Dandy S-7-26-14
Saratoga race10-9f D purse $600,000
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07-25-2014, 11:06 AM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Chicago
Posts: 121
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Wow- The old software likes Kid Cruz?
What line did you use for Tonalist and Commanding Curve? I'll post my RDSS readout when the Trackmaster DL is available.
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07-26-2014, 01:11 AM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Chicago
Posts: 121
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So this race is a pretty nuanced race despite only having a 7 deep field. One of the biggest thing's I took away from the Legendary Jim Bradshaw's posts in the matchup forum is that we can't use 1 turn routes in 2 turn races.
Here is RDSS out of the box: Here's how I did it- with Paceline Selection and My attempt at the match up #1: Last (and best) Race #2: 3rd back- first two are 1-turn routes. Not a contender- the #1 runs better fractions. Cousin Stephen and Tonilist are better Presser than this horse. #3: 2nd race back- last race was a 1 turn route and a losing tandem. #4: Tonalist- This is where it gets complicated: We can't use the 12f race here (and if we did- RDSS would underrate the horse). The 2nd race back (Peter Pan) is a 9f race at Belmont... which is a 1 turn route. We have to go back to it's 3rd race to get a 2 turn route... which also happens to be it's high preceptor total. \\ #5: The Puzzling Kid Cruz: This horse has run monster fractions in the last 2 races. Unfortunately, we can't use those lines for this race... because they are 1 turn routes. Now what to do? I'm not using the Preakness line. I really have no idea what happened with him there. I re-watched the race and I'm somewhat confused. He didn't remotely threaten the field, there was pace for him to close into, he didn't run into trouble really at any point of the race. Regardless- I went back to the Tesio Stakes. #6: Commanding Curve: We can't use the Belmont as it is 12f. We can't use the Derby (Dr. Sartin said we should never use the Derby as a paceline in another race). We have to go back to the Louisiana Derby (3rd Back). This horse is always a threat to finish 2nd. #7 My main man Wicked Strong: Have to use to the Wood Memorial. We went over why we don't use the derby or belmont pacelines earlier. That brings us to the readouts: Looks like Tonalist is indeed the favorite- although Kid Cruz and Cousin Stephen provide some really nice value in this race. I will likely bet both to win- and then use in exotics with Tonilist, CC, and WS. CC has a really good shot to finish ITM- but I don't think he wins- and can't recommend betting him at his price. Anyone have any suggestions as to how to bet this... I am all ears!
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07-26-2014, 03:37 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Chicago
Posts: 121
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Here is the readout with Cousin Stephens scratched (he ran in the Curlin on Friday). I wasn't able to pay attention to Friday Saratoga as my career got in the way (It generally gets in the way of handicapping).
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07-26-2014, 03:41 AM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Chicago
Posts: 121
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I expect a significant amount of early pace in this race. It's going to be tough for Kid Cruz to close on Tonalist. Probably will be tough to get a price out of this one.
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07-26-2014, 09:32 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 593
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The Chart
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