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Old 02-21-2017, 03:16 PM   #11
Mitch44
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Pook: This horse dropped in class in last two starts and still failed to win. Additionally the low odds and declining SR would make this a toss. Through # 1 in CR not the same horse that earned that rating in last two starts. Claimed in two back I would like to know something about trainer stats which here are unavailable. Also a 5 yr. old that is 0 for 13. This type of race favors younger horses. The #6 showed improvement in 2nd 3rd & 4th back. You used a bad line for the 6 also because of the distance as compared to todays conditions. Got to go, will check back.

Don't go by months or a year to collect information about a particular situation ,go by the number of races you have. Sounds like you may have enough.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 02-21-2017 at 03:19 PM.
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Old 02-21-2017, 03:50 PM   #12
The Pook
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Originally Posted by Lt1 View Post
R7 is also a mdn race. Based on my capping BL/BL and RX3 both have it 69345. This looks to me to be a weak field and there are 2 FTS. The 7 interest me a little at 10-1. It shows 4 5f works in 38 days and in a less then stellar field might be worth a $2 flyer at 10-1 or higher.
Tim G
Tim, just watched the 7 bobble the start, fall to last, circle the field and draw away at 7-1. Hope you had something on him. Nice capping in an area that I don't go to.

Pook
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Old 02-21-2017, 03:57 PM   #13
Lt1
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I did and thanks. As you know I don't play many mdns but at Parx most mdn races are very playable and every once in a while something like this pops. As a 2 horse bettor I still get another shot if my fuzzy logic fails. I sent you a pm with my thoughts on race 1.
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Old 02-21-2017, 04:04 PM   #14
Tim Y
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lets try the eight at Parx

1 and 4 go out then 5 3 2 come later. Have no access to the odds board currnetly
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Old 02-21-2017, 08:25 PM   #15
Bill V.
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Originally Posted by Lt1 View Post
Hi Pook. I capped the race and had the #2 2nd on bl/bl and #1 on RX3. The winner ranked 4th on bl/bl on 5th on RX3. I didn't wager on this race since the top 2 ranked horses were 8/5 and 2-1 and since I require a great deal more to wager on a mdn race. I also passed race 4 even though the winner #6 was 2nd on bl/bl and 3rd on RX3 while the place horse was 3 bl/bl and 2 RX3 and the ex pd $105.20. Why the pass. Simple the winner was coming off a 61 day layoff with a weak w/o tab and was shipping back to Parx where it was 0-1. At 2-1 not for me. R7 is also a mdn race. Based on my capping BL/BL and RX3 both have it 69345. This looks to me to be a weak field and there are 2 FTS. The 7 interest me a little at 10-1. It shows 4 5f works in 38 days and in a less then stellar field might be worth a $2 flyer at 10-1 or higher. Most likely this will be a pass race again. Good luck the rest of the day.
Tim G

Hi Tim I saw the same thing about the 7 FTS, It was part of the Pick 4
so I had to bet, I saw the weak field too and the work !

I did hit the Pick 4 It only Paid $76
because the other 3 winners were all chalk $3.60,$3.80 and $5.40
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Old 02-21-2017, 09:42 PM   #16
Lt1
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A win is a win Bill besides all we can do is cap in a consistent manner since we have no control over prices.
Tim
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Old 02-21-2017, 10:22 PM   #17
mowens33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Pook View Post
Since I started tracking the types of races that I bet class wise nearly three months ago (thanks Lt1 and Mitch for input on that) the one serious area of non-profit for me are Maidens. -59% ROI. These races may have one FT or are missing one piece of info. They only represent 11% of all races bet so I could easily avoid them but 3 months is too short a time to draw a conclusion. So I keep hammering them. Maybe after a year and I'm in the same boat I might drop them.

Todays PRX1 won't go in the database because I didn't actually bet because of odds. However I would like members opinions on TreeTop.

Pook
Pook, this horse started out in a MC75 and ran a strong race, and looking at the PP this horse should have won long ago. I am not sure how to explain it but some horses just do not have the will to win. Herd Mentality that Tim Y referred to is a good possibility.
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Old 02-22-2017, 04:14 AM   #18
Bill V.
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Condition

hI Pook

Usually I stay away from maidens after 0/10 races .

There are many other in here that are 0/10 or worse

Horse 1. 0/25
Horse 2. 0/12
Horse 3. 0/11
Horse 4. 0/7
Horse 5. 0/11
Horse 6. 0/10
Horse 7. 0/10

The condition for this races could have been Non winners of at least
10 races or NON winners 10 or more races

Everybody except horse 7 is 0/10 or worse

Also I am careful not to use a pace line from Parx from Jan 10 17
That -40 is rating all lines from that day way too fast

using KGEN, I wanted to see what the raw total energy each horse earns
Line 1 for horse 2 gets a 169+ almost 8 points higher than everyone else.

Name:  engen 6 lone early.JPG
Views: 280
Size:  48.0 KB

I will rate Horse 2 off line 2 This line puts its total energy comparable to the field.

Here is the energy generator with line 1 and line 2 (named TWO )
Name:  line 2 horse 2.JPG
Views: 268
Size:  65.0 KB

I did not bother with horse 1 who could not win a 5000 MCin its last line
at 48/1 and is 0/25 or Horse 5 who is awful.

Horse 2 with a 8 point advantage in total energy blows the others away on Thoromation, I will hide this line and rate off line 2
After projecting and hiding the 4 horse who showed nothing, I'm left with 4 horse to rate

Here is Thromation with 1 adjust

Name:  Thrormation 1.JPG
Views: 268
Size:  42.4 KB

Here is the EXDC preplay with Thoromation 2 adjust *
The first preplay screen with the 2 adjust works better than Thoromation

Name:  EXDC 2.JPG
Views: 269
Size:  55.4 KB


Using thoromation 2 adjust, the horses almost always finish in a tie
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Old 02-22-2017, 09:01 AM   #19
The Pook
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Thanks for the pointers and workups guys.

I liked Bill V's remark about the abhorrent DTV on Jan 10. That was something I missed.
I received an interesting analyses in a PM on this race last night where it was pointed out that the winner was 0/10. The winner was 0/10! That was the best you were going to do betting into this race. And thats the thing about maidens. You are betting on 0/whatevers.

Sometimes you can't see the forest for the trees.

That was brilliant how Lt1 and Bill V turned a weak field of maidens into profit on a FT in the seventh. Not my cup of tea but brilliant nonetheless.

Thanks
Pook
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Old 02-22-2017, 10:44 AM   #20
Lt1
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Pook you are correct that under most circumstances the race should be passed re 2 unknown factors[fts]. Since I had capped the race and observed the w/o pattern on the 7 I put a statement Doc always use to impress on us to use. The statement was if you cap a race and a horse you left out still worries you put a couple of bucks on it and proceed as you normally would. As far as the 0-10 thing goes that doesn't really bother me when all the horses are equally poor. I recall when I was young and dumb betting a 0-33 mdn in a field of 0 forever mdns. It won and paid $25. The bottom line is a horses record must be considered in relationship with the rest of the field.
Tim G
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