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02-21-2017, 03:16 PM | #11 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Pook: This horse dropped in class in last two starts and still failed to win. Additionally the low odds and declining SR would make this a toss. Through # 1 in CR not the same horse that earned that rating in last two starts. Claimed in two back I would like to know something about trainer stats which here are unavailable. Also a 5 yr. old that is 0 for 13. This type of race favors younger horses. The #6 showed improvement in 2nd 3rd & 4th back. You used a bad line for the 6 also because of the distance as compared to todays conditions. Got to go, will check back.
Don't go by months or a year to collect information about a particular situation ,go by the number of races you have. Sounds like you may have enough. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 02-21-2017 at 03:19 PM. |
02-21-2017, 03:50 PM | #12 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,535
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Quote:
Pook |
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02-21-2017, 03:57 PM | #13 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,041
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I did and thanks. As you know I don't play many mdns but at Parx most mdn races are very playable and every once in a while something like this pops. As a 2 horse bettor I still get another shot if my fuzzy logic fails. I sent you a pm with my thoughts on race 1.
Tim
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02-21-2017, 04:04 PM | #14 |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
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lets try the eight at Parx
1 and 4 go out then 5 3 2 come later. Have no access to the odds board currnetly
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Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." |
02-21-2017, 08:25 PM | #15 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Quote:
Hi Tim I saw the same thing about the 7 FTS, It was part of the Pick 4 so I had to bet, I saw the weak field too and the work ! I did hit the Pick 4 It only Paid $76 because the other 3 winners were all chalk $3.60,$3.80 and $5.40 |
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02-21-2017, 09:42 PM | #16 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,041
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A win is a win Bill besides all we can do is cap in a consistent manner since we have no control over prices.
Tim
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02-21-2017, 10:22 PM | #17 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: CAMBRIDGE,MA
Posts: 1,035
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Quote:
Mike |
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02-22-2017, 04:14 AM | #18 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Condition
hI Pook
Usually I stay away from maidens after 0/10 races . There are many other in here that are 0/10 or worse Horse 1. 0/25 Horse 2. 0/12 Horse 3. 0/11 Horse 4. 0/7 Horse 5. 0/11 Horse 6. 0/10 Horse 7. 0/10 The condition for this races could have been Non winners of at least 10 races or NON winners 10 or more races Everybody except horse 7 is 0/10 or worse Also I am careful not to use a pace line from Parx from Jan 10 17 That -40 is rating all lines from that day way too fast using KGEN, I wanted to see what the raw total energy each horse earns Line 1 for horse 2 gets a 169+ almost 8 points higher than everyone else. I will rate Horse 2 off line 2 This line puts its total energy comparable to the field. Here is the energy generator with line 1 and line 2 (named TWO ) I did not bother with horse 1 who could not win a 5000 MCin its last line at 48/1 and is 0/25 or Horse 5 who is awful. Horse 2 with a 8 point advantage in total energy blows the others away on Thoromation, I will hide this line and rate off line 2 After projecting and hiding the 4 horse who showed nothing, I'm left with 4 horse to rate Here is Thromation with 1 adjust Here is the EXDC preplay with Thoromation 2 adjust * The first preplay screen with the 2 adjust works better than Thoromation Using thoromation 2 adjust, the horses almost always finish in a tie |
02-22-2017, 09:01 AM | #19 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,535
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Thanks for the pointers and workups guys.
I liked Bill V's remark about the abhorrent DTV on Jan 10. That was something I missed. I received an interesting analyses in a PM on this race last night where it was pointed out that the winner was 0/10. The winner was 0/10! That was the best you were going to do betting into this race. And thats the thing about maidens. You are betting on 0/whatevers. Sometimes you can't see the forest for the trees. That was brilliant how Lt1 and Bill V turned a weak field of maidens into profit on a FT in the seventh. Not my cup of tea but brilliant nonetheless. Thanks Pook |
02-22-2017, 10:44 AM | #20 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,041
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Pook you are correct that under most circumstances the race should be passed re 2 unknown factors[fts]. Since I had capped the race and observed the w/o pattern on the 7 I put a statement Doc always use to impress on us to use. The statement was if you cap a race and a horse you left out still worries you put a couple of bucks on it and proceed as you normally would. As far as the 0-10 thing goes that doesn't really bother me when all the horses are equally poor. I recall when I was young and dumb betting a 0-33 mdn in a field of 0 forever mdns. It won and paid $25. The bottom line is a horses record must be considered in relationship with the rest of the field.
Tim G
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