Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Selections
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Selections Post Your Picks - 1 race or a card

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-12-2017, 02:40 PM   #1
Bill V.
Grade 1
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad
Posts: 7,788
Day 19 DMR feature race Race 9 THE BEST PAL

6.5 furlongs 2-year-olds Best Pal Stakes Grade 2 $200.000

Wild wicked early pace with 2 big favorites Prat/Callahan Vs. Baffert/Smith

Less than 1 week till Pace and Cap Weekend at Saratoga
I am waiting to see so many old and new Friends

Hey Richie-- My best pal,

This one is for you

https://youtu.be/MKLVmBOOqVU


Name:  best pal.JPG
Views: 78
Size:  129.5 KB

Name:  Best Weight.JPG
Views: 77
Size:  88.3 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-12-2017, 07:39 PM   #2
Bill V.
Grade 1
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad
Posts: 7,788
so tough

I really don't know about this one. TPR numbers land me on the two favorites.

So win bets are out. I will just go with Baffert/Smith on the 5 for this leg

I will make a double in race 8 and 9


5, 6, 9, 10 / 5 = $8

Name:  10 5 9 6.JPG
Views: 62
Size:  103.2 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-12-2017, 08:42 PM   #3
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 720
9Th Del Mar 12 Aug. 17, 2 year old UNKNOWNS

#1 w2 for 2, few horses win two in a row while stepping up in class. When challenged in last met it and is a fighter. May not have to run that fast against these. A knock here is he decelerated rapidly in last and today is stretching out another 1F and may be too early. There is almost always cheap speed in a race especially for a Purse of $200,000. It’s hard to say if he is too E or did what he had to and may not get that fast of a pace today. As long as he’s winning I’m leery of throwing him out especially with a two horse bet. Contender.

#2 an unknown factor. W only start so true ability unknown. Gets 1st L today also has a new trainer since last win, going from a 6 % trainer to a 15% therefore should improve. Coming from GP to ship in for this, someone thinks something of him. Due to improve and 20/1 M/L

#3 Foreign horse that has w 2 for 2 and gets 1st L today, the best foreign horses come from France not PR therefore I’ll take a stand against and toss.

#4 an improving horse that won last with 1st B on but at 8F on the Turf, conditions today don’t seem to fit this one, does rate and 10-1 ,may pick up a piece because rates. Toss!

#5 Won last with 1st B on, improving and top unknown. Only 2 races but may be a NTL & if so the # 1 will out run him. Was a fighter in first start so may have needed the race, Baffert horse who trains for speed. Contender.

#6 only one race so ability??? Unknown factor. Doesn’t have the speed to keep up or a closing HE to be a win candidate.

#7 another unknown. Last is a throw out as he was way up in class, had to ship overseas and tried turf. Trainer must of thought highly of the horse to ship etc. broke Mdn. On an off track so real ability is hidden. Contender, M/L only 4-1, not much for the risk.

#8 won last and improved, may have too much deceleration for this bunch and going an extra furlong. Toss

Order 1-5-4-7-6 The 1 & 5 will be bet down, only way to make money is they don’t run one two and one wins and 4,7,or 6 can get a place at a price for a good EX. A small win bet on the 4 & 7 is a worthy bet and the 1 & 5 for an EX if one of them does win. If they run w & p you’re looking at a pitiful $ 8 or 10 dollar EX

Another way is if the 1 or 5 wins is to play the DD;
Race 8 & 10 are ugly races, I would look for a lot for a little as there are many unknowns in them and small DD

8th race 1-3-11 & 10th race 9-6-1-3 I think the odds on these will be good enough to place a small win bet also on them and in the 10th play the 3 highest odds horses of the four.
Good skill,
Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-12-2017, 09:16 PM   #4
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 720
Made a mistake on the race numbers for the DD;
8th race 9-6-1-3 & 10th race is 1-3-11 Sorry about that.

Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-13-2017, 11:46 AM   #5
Bill V.
Grade 1
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad
Posts: 7,788
Missed Double

I caught the winner in race 8, The turf route,
Horse 10 rated on top if I use line 4 and last if I use line 3?
I usually don't use a horse all time best TPR that is that many days old,
It is a 7.5 distance so a weird adjustment is also likely,
The reason I used it was it was only 1/2 furlong short of today's distance,
The reason I did not use line 3 was the first Fraction position of 6th
Horse 10 is an early horse, I figured maybe by being 6th early, This race became a toss, The horse wants to be in the lead so although the trouble line comment does not mention it as a troubled trip, I felt the bad start or early match up of that race made line 3 aberrant
This is why I like doubles I can add in some "coulda" horses, especially if I single in the other leg

Name:  10.JPG
Views: 34
Size:  176.8 KB

It all became moot when the 1 won the 9th race

As Mitch wrote, The smart bet probably would have been the exacta
as long as the 1 and 5 don't run together, The exacta to the 2 which was rated right up there on TPR would have paid a nice exacta

Name:  best TPR.JPG
Views: 32
Size:  99.1 KB

Name:  race 8.JPG
Views: 34
Size:  160.1 KB

Name:  Best pal result.JPG
Views: 34
Size:  144.7 KB

Name:  Day 19.JPG
Views: 1
Size:  129.6 KB

Last edited by Bill V.; 09-13-2017 at 08:49 PM.
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-13-2017, 12:07 PM   #6
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 720
Based on his chart I would have used line # 4, I also don't like using 7.5 F races especially from GP. His CR rating justified going back. I figured the 1 to run the 5 into the ground if he tried to keep up in the 9th, question was could he finish. I chose to stay on the win train & class until it was time to get off.

You think that's bad I posted the wrong race number for my picks in the 8th & 10th. That's OK because I was watching the odds early on the 8th which made no sense and caught it. GOOD !!! What wasn't good was the feature 9th race . I had the 4 as a toss and the 2 as an unknown, my final order was not what I figured. Read my comments. Don't know how the hell I did that and blew an EX over $70. Real stupid mistake!! I guess I need a couple days off behind stuff like that.

Onward,
Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
CT test Bill V. Pace Makes the Race / TPR 40 08-28-2017 10:32 PM
Woodbine notes Saturday 4/30 Bill V. Pace Makes the Race / TPR 66 05-21-2016 10:00 AM
UPDATED - Official Contest Rules, beginning AUGUST Ted Craven August Contest 1 07-24-2012 11:09 PM
Del Mar Race 9 Bill V. General Discussion 2 07-23-2012 10:40 PM
Wagercapping - Follow Up Articles Ted Craven Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum 19 03-22-2010 07:06 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:27 AM.