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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 04-07-2016, 10:06 PM   #11
atkinsrr
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only a month away...but still a long way to go.....thanks for all the info Bill
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Old 04-08-2016, 11:09 AM   #12
Bill Lyster
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I will post an update once the mud clears...

Lonespeed's post was my wake up call to get off my rear and start the process for this year.
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Old 04-08-2016, 11:25 AM   #13
lone speed
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Wink

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Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
I will post an update once the mud clears...

Lonespeed's post was my wake up call to get off my rear and start the process for this year.
Bill L.

Lol I didn't mean to "light the proverbial match"


I will look forward to your "marathon analysis" with great enthusiasm!!
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Old 04-08-2016, 11:39 AM   #14
lone speed
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Major Derby Preps this weekend

This weekend, we will see major Derby contenders run in three major Derby prep races.

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Blue Grass Stakes

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Todd Pletcher should have a strong showing this weekend in two of the three major Derby prep races. Zulu should distribute its energy late in the Blue Grass while dictating the Blue Grass early pace fractions while Outwork is expected to expend its energy early in the Wood Memorial.


Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct

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Santa Anita Derby

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Let's evaluate jockey Gary Stevens' remarks about the objective in the Santa Anita Derby.

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Depending on the objectives, one does prep in a million dollar race...
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Old 04-08-2016, 10:52 PM   #15
GeneRayburn
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Originally Posted by lone speed View Post

Meydan: UAE Derby

Look at those dawdling early pace fractions....

fractional times of Lani:

27.33 50.82 for 4F 1:14.22 for 6F and 139.02 for mile and 1:58.41 for 1mile and 3/16
You have to adjust for no run-up at Meydan and convert from the metric system. If I adjust the first fraction down 2 seconds to allow for the run-up and convert meters to yards, I get the following approximate fractions:

Race fractions - 24.63 48.72 1:12.56 1:37.46

Lani Fractions - 25.48 49.11 1:12.64 1:37.59


As far as a variant. The UAE Derby final time for Lani was about the same as Mubtaahij's from 2015, but the Dubai World cup was quite a bit faster in 2016 than 2015 with 8 horses running faster in 2016 than the winning time in 2015. So, anecdotally the track was probably faster in 2016 than 2015.
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Old 04-09-2016, 09:59 AM   #16
lone speed
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Wink Many thanks

Quote:
Originally Posted by GeneRayburn View Post
You have to adjust for no run-up at Meydan and convert from the metric system. If I adjust the first fraction down 2 seconds to allow for the run-up and convert meters to yards, I get the following approximate fractions:

Race fractions - 24.63 48.72 1:12.56 1:37.46

Lani Fractions - 25.48 49.11 1:12.64 1:37.59


As far as a variant. The UAE Derby final time for Lani was about the same as Mubtaahij's from 2015, but the Dubai World cup was quite a bit faster in 2016 than 2015 with 8 horses running faster in 2016 than the winning time in 2015. So, anecdotally the track was probably faster in 2016 than 2015.
Greetings Gene!!

Thanks for the info....But more importantly, welcome to Pace and Cap after waking up from your hibernation of 5.5 years. Wow!! Your first post after signing up almost 6 years ago.. Ted...this must be a record?????

This was a great contribution....

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Old 04-09-2016, 10:13 AM   #17
GeneRayburn
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Greetings Gene!!

Thanks for the info....But more importantly, welcome to Pace and Cap after waking up from your hibernation of 5.5 years. Wow!! Your first post after signing up almost 6 years ago.. Ted...this must be a record?????

This was a great contribution....

Attachment 40267

Yeah, I'm a spring handicapper. The wife only "allows" me a certain number of Saturdays a year, so, I'm usually done for the year after the Triple Crown. For some reason, she thinks I should spend time with her. I usually don't start getting into it until Kentucky Derby time, but I am doing more of the prep races this year.
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Old 04-09-2016, 10:15 PM   #18
lone speed
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result charts

Blue Grass chart

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Brody's Cause rebounds back to form to win the Blue Grass with a 37.60 final fraction after going 6F in 112.60. Brody's Cause might need to improve for the run for the Roses.

Wood Memorial chart
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Outwork wins an ugly race time-wise and a questionable victory over a maiden- Trojan Nation over a muddy-sealed track that was tiring over the last 3 furlongs of the 9F distance. But energy-performance- wise, there is a world of difference between fighting the early pace and fighting to the finish line versus laying far behind the early pace and making one late run at the wire. The difference was a head at the finish line but one must evaluate each horse in context of its individual performance and its form cycle. Regardless, this is an ugly race to use to evaluate Derby contenders.

Santa Anita Derby chart
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The Desormeaux brothers win the Santa Anita Derby as jockey Kent Desormeaux rode his brother's trained Exaggerator to victory over a sealed sloppy track. One huge question?....What in the world was jockey Mike Smith trying to do with his horse, Danzing Candy as his horse set blazing early pace fractions of 45.24 for 4 furlongs and 110.12 for 6 furlongs. Mike Smith has done this with Bodemeister in the 2012 Kentucky Derby and Palice Malice in the 2013 Kentucky Derby. Now, I have a lot of respect for the Hall of Fame jockey; maybe these are just isolated instances...

Exaggerator wins the Santa Anita Derby by running a default race laying far behind the extreme fast early pace set by Danzing Candy. Exaggerator ran his last 3F in 37.60 after running 6 F in 1:12 before and track variant adjustments.

The next and last major Derby prep race: the Arkansas Derby and the anticipated performance of Cupid.....
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Old 04-10-2016, 09:12 PM   #19
lone speed
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Derby talk over at PaceAdvantage.com

Link
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...12#post1975012

I was reading this poster's post(SBCaris) with interest until he "sucker-punched" me with his sales pitch at the end of his post.

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Old 04-11-2016, 02:00 PM   #20
Bill Lyster
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What two of the three winners last week had in common + a long shot

Looking at the PPs from last Saturday I thought it was interesting to see the moves made both in lengths gained and horses passed:

At Aqueduct Trojan Nation made up position and lengths in its maiden win. Looked long and hard at it, but left it off ticket at 88/1, ugh;

At SA, see all the blue lines in the PPs for Exaggerator when allowed to run in mid to late pack, even won a big purse on the lead at the Delta Downs short track;

Keeneland set up for a closer (the two earlies had EPR's of +5 and +10) and look who had all the moves, Brody's Cause, My Man Sam and Cherry Wine finished 1-2-3.

Could be a lot of horses running from far back at Churchill Downs. Without seeing the entire field any horse that is versatile enough to run mid pack should have an advantage if the Derby has its usually number of speed balls trying to crack 111 for the first six furlongs.
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