Arlington Million G1 2014

[Ted Craven]

Here are some initial thoughts on tomorrow's Arlington Million.

Because of a lack of good lines for the 2 Euros #2 Smokin Sun and #3 Magician, we must use TrackMaster SR and RC numbers to compare their efforts to those of the others with North American lines. Please see the upper image above. Magician, winner of the Breeders' Cup Turf last year runs 120's SR in 120's RC (Race Class) rated G1 races. His BC rating does him a disservice so I picked his good G1 Ascot 2nd place race to show him as the highest SR. His other 2 120's SRs from G1 wins show this effort is repeatable when he is in form.

Smokin Sun has a 121 from a sprint G2 win in Paris, but from a lower calibre race.

Of the North Americans, #6 Real Solution lost this race last year by a head, having been bumped late, and won the G1 Manhattan this Spring at Belmont so is still in fine form. I'm happy to rate him off last year's AP Million, thus a competitive 120 SR from a 119 RC for him.

#6 Up with the Birds would be next.

So far, I see Magician and Real Solution as the primary competitors, with Up With The Birds next. As reflected in the ML odds, so we'll have to see tomorrow if this also a betting race, and not just a watching race!

Good luck!





Ted

[atkinsrr]

Ted I come up with the same thing in the Million...don't think that it is a good betting race by itself but as part of the P4 I think it is...there will be a couple of long prices in the 7th, 8th, and 9th...hopefully all 3 ......50 cent P4...good wager !!!!!!

[Hoof 11]

Have to go with Canada's horse of the year....... Up With The Birds.