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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 12-05-2019, 01:57 PM   #61
gandalf380
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Good points LT1. However, per bills stats for cal you need an awfully big price to show +POI when you are winning only 3% of the time. NYRA stats are a little bit better. 7-8% win off of layoffs of more than 90 days.
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Old 12-05-2019, 02:55 PM   #62
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Agree Charlie. I find the overall layoff horses win about 10% of the time. Like I tried to point everything is based on the race in front of you at the time. I just don't believe in automatic tosses. Since I'm looking at a case by case situation,[the horse must be a contender in the first place preferably top 3] the overall stats don't concern me, since I end up passing most these types anyway.
Tim
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Old 12-05-2019, 03:34 PM   #63
Bill V.
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Win

Hello Tim
To cut down on pick 4 and pick 5 tickets
I generally eliminate long layoff horse over 120
If they are top 3 rx3 and long odds I just make a 2$ ATB I agree to take every race as a new event But in Social almost every horse that pays a high price does not shown much in the readouts
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Old 12-05-2019, 03:50 PM   #64
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Bill I agree that most longshot winners don't show a lot of of supporting numbers I have found that a true longshot contender in the top 3 does show enough corollary support that when it meets my standard I have no problem betting it. As Mitch often says all longshots are created equal. More importantly how are you doing today?.
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Old 12-05-2019, 06:00 PM   #65
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Hi

Hello Tim

Thanks, I am doing well. Luckily I have a great lady friend Bree,
who helps me stay positive. I am going to a therapist. My case manager
at dialysis also is talking to my family

Things are always getting better

Now back on the topic

Doc wrote something like what you're doing, If a horse is 1-2 VDC
he pays no attention to layoffs

What Charlie and I are finding is the situation happens very rarely in some tracks.

I'm doing some mining into the stats at SoCal
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Old 12-05-2019, 06:02 PM   #66
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I have no problems with layoff horses. I also believe what Sartin said in that once a horse is off over 30 days it makes no difference if its 31 , 91 or 391 days.

Layoff horses are only a problem if one perceives them to be a problem. I don't. Otherwise don't ever expect to get good prices and I doubt you'll ever rise above 50% with two horse betting by not being able to deal with everyday handicapping situations.

When it comes to this under or over 30 days its all governed by form. Both the horse and human cycle run 28 day cycles and within that time or out of that time every race contributes to the horses form cycle. Its either improving or declining in form. Workouts also contribute to the cycle as does rest, they also can be over trained or undertrained. Class also has an influence on the cycle as higher class horses tend to hold form for longer periods and can also be trained up to a race through workouts.

With todays instant gratification and Black Box approach little attention is given to the basics of which form is one of them. You can't make the winning team with holes in your game and will only be a minor league player getting minor league pay. Beware of nothing burger statistics. Its about gathering quality not quantity.

That's OK through because it creates overlays everyday and the more well rounded better players need your contributions. No one catches up with form or the game ceases however with form analysis we can place greater percentages on our side for success.

Good luck,
Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 12-05-2019 at 06:06 PM.
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