Barb Craven October Contest

[barb craven]

Hi Barb and group

I will show the winning horse PP. In all honesty no matter what
settings and this percentage or that percentage one uses is not really the
issue here. What is to me what won this race is the choice to go back over 300 days to a muddy line.

And then bet it in tier 3! for a $6 horse

I just had to reply to your statement here Bill. I bet it because it was in tier 3. For whatever reason, that is the tier that gets me the most winners.

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by barb craven

Hi Barb and group

I will show the winning horse PP. In all honesty no matter what
settings and this percentage or that percentage one uses is not really the
issue here. What is to me what won this race is the choice to go back over 300 days to a muddy line.

And then bet it in tier 3! for a $6 horse

I just had to reply to your statement here Bill. I bet it because it was in tier 3. For whatever reason, that is the tier that gets me the most winners.

Thats good Barb And this is important for the group to understand .
You get winners in tier 3, but its the pacelines that you use that place
the horses in tier 3 . So my question to the group stands
"would you use a 300+ day old muddy line ? "
Barb would, so she gets the horse in tier 3
Your paceline choices rank the horses.
As they say in the TV ads "your results will vary"

[Bill V.]

Thanks for getting back to me about the 1 horse
Here is my opinion
I will show the original lines and the adjusted lines together
Either way I would not enter a line for this horse

Line 1 is a turf line so thats issue 1
Lets look at line 1
Ben walked out of the gate and
was beaten 21 and 20 legnths
Notice the early late graph,
This is not indicitive of the horses ability. What is its ability? It has only
1 plus race It won a state bred maiden claimer on the turf so who knows
what it ran against ?
Line 4 is another very poor effort
The horse shows nothing, beaten by 20


Anyway Thanks for the race

Here are the lines I used The 3 is now a bet in tier 3 right ?

[barb craven]

I have to reply to this too Bill. I don't as a rule go back that far, I usually use the best of the last 3 adjusted, but in this race there weren't any dirt sprints in any of those lines and I wanted a dirt sprint line, not a poly route. I actually put in lines 7,8,9 and let the program tell me which one to use. If I had of used line 3 (the best of the last 3 ) it would have cost me the race.

[Bill V.]

I understand Barb

thanks for the discussion
its important for us to see were winners come from
not just wins and loss statements

Good Skill
Bill

[barb craven]

Prx r3
$50 w 4
$50 w 1
lost

[barb craven]

Prx r7
$60 w 10
$40 p 1
lost

[barb craven]

Tdn r8
$60w 9
$40p 5

[barb craven]

Almost.

[barb craven]

Hoo4
$100 1w