Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Classic Sartin Programs - your host: Bill Varone > Speculator
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Speculator Speculator - FAQs, Technical Support, Examples, etc

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 07-14-2009, 06:33 PM   #1
Tim Y
turf historian
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 5,596
E/L change by distance

The e/l is, to my mind, the MOST POWERFUL thing we have going that NO ONE ELSE HAS. A few years back I posted a long study I did called e/l relativity which showed that for the MOST PART, earlier e/l's that are reasonable often win at mutuels that are worth it over the form the clouds types that catch the field just about he clubhouse turn the second time around the course.

For example, you have THREE horse fairly close. You the review the relative readouts of those and find their e/l's (this is a route at 8.5 furlongs) -1.4, -4.0, and -12.4 respectively. Who has the better shot? In the long run the earlier the horse the better the shot on dirt. If they are maidens, you can extend the range of early by about 25% more positive than those standard e/l standards for winners as they are learning to run and often quit after showing improving early speed.

Once you have your standards ofr each distacne at each course, remember the differences between the e/l's per distance.

From a real race today at Fort Erie (one sprint, one route) I changed the distances, up and down from the two distances listed (6.0 and 8.5 respectively) and here is how the e/l changes with distance change.

According by distance and starting with an e/l of 9.5 at 6.0 furlongs, the number for 6.5 furlongs decreased by two to 7.5, and down two more (5.5) at 7.0 furlongs. Going the other way, the e/l stayed the same at 9.5 for 5.5 furlongs and was positive by ONE at 10.5 at 5.0 furlongs.

For a route, starting at -10.4 for 8.5f, it shifted more negative by 6 points at 9.0 furlongs to -16.4 and another -5 at 9.5 furlongs becoming -21.4. Going the other ways, and this is tricky, that -9.5 became -13.4 at 8.3 but only -9.4 and 8.0. What should be linear has a glitch in the program at the odd distance of 1 mile 70 yards. Did not calculate 1 mile and 40 isnce it is only really found at the Fair Grounds and the odd one at Tampa.

How to use this: really look at e/ls' shat are close to standard for your track and distance and consider those positive ones that are within about 25% above the norm as possibilities. Remember it is their RELATIVITY that is important.

a better way to view the changes

5.0f 10.5
5.5f 9.5
6.0f 9.5
6.5f 7.5
7.0f 5.5

routes
8.0f -9.4
8.3f -13.4
8.5f -10.4
9.0f -16.4
9.5f -21.4

Last edited by Tim Y; 07-14-2009 at 06:51 PM.
Tim Y is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-14-2009, 08:40 PM   #2
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,277
e/l

So you are saying to calculate an AVERAGE e/l for each distance at the track you are playing and consider at each distance any horse that is within 25% of the AVERAGE for that distance.

Is that correct?
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
For The Lead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-15-2009, 12:30 AM   #3
Tim Y
turf historian
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 5,596
Quote:
Originally Posted by For The Lead View Post
So you are saying to calculate an AVERAGE e/l for each distance at the track you are playing and consider at each distance any horse that is within 25% of the AVERAGE for that distance.

Is that correct?
fairly close
Tim Y is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-15-2009, 01:21 AM   #4
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,277
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tim Y View Post
fairly close
Seems like a "broad" approach considering in this race you are looking at bottom level 3 year old maiden fillies and the next race upper level older male winners. (same dist/surface)
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own

Last edited by For The Lead; 07-15-2009 at 01:27 AM.
For The Lead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-15-2009, 11:26 AM   #5
Tim Y
turf historian
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 5,596
Quote:
Originally Posted by For The Lead View Post
Seems like a "broad" approach considering in this race you are looking at bottom level 3 year old maiden fillies and the next race upper level older male winners. (same dist/surface)
It is all about RELATIVITY within the Field you are evaluationg and maiden races are ALL ABOUT developing speed. Babies RARELY have any stamina to speak of.
Tim Y is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-15-2009, 12:05 PM   #6
Tim Y
turf historian
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 5,596
Here is a great example of e/l relativity.

7th race - Fort Erie - July 12, 2009

Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
1 T Que Eldridge K. Lindsay 19.60 7.10 5.00
3 Better Than Enough Gerry Olguin 3.00 2.70
6 Service Act Daniel J. David 6.00
Also ran: 4 - Joey D. , 8 - Judith's Aidan , 5 - I Boogie , 7 - One Short
Scratched horses: Rojo Diablo

CHECK out how the RELATIVELY more positive e/l numbers played out in this race
Attached Images
 
Tim Y is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-15-2009, 12:12 PM   #7
Tim Y
turf historian
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 5,596
another one for relativity

10th race - Fort Erie - July 12, 2009

Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
8 Seafields Rui M. Pimentel 9.50 4.40 3.00
9 Approved by Nick Roderick Dacosta 3.50 2.60
11 Manderlay Steven Ronald Bahen 5.00
Also ran: 1 - Flashy J R , 3 - Pacino , 7 - Patrolster , 6 - Vany's Parlour , 4 - Catsintherain , 5 - Fiscal Range , 2 - Turbo Train
Scratched horses: Deed of Freedom , Joey's Smokin Gun

See where in this maiden race, where you can accept HIGHER e/l's than normal races by up to 25 to 40%, the SAME relativity showed up again.
Attached Images
 
Tim Y is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-16-2009, 01:32 AM   #8
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,277
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tim Y View Post
It is all about RELATIVITY within the Field you are evaluationg and maiden races are ALL ABOUT developing speed. Babies RARELY have any stamina to speak of.
I think we are getting to the same destination using different avenues. I just prefer to "narrow" the model to reflect more closely the type of race I have in front of me.
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
For The Lead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-16-2009, 11:16 AM   #9
Tim Y
turf historian
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 5,596
Quote:
Originally Posted by For The Lead View Post
I think we are getting to the same destination using different avenues. I just prefer to "narrow" the model to reflect more closely the type of race I have in front of me.
Same idea but this works form the early side unilaterally with the RARE exception of the come from behind horse having faced and overcome the same, or faster fractions than the earlier ones, THE ONLY time that the closers take over consistently.
Tim Y is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
God Bless you, Howard Sartin........ tom General Discussion 79 06-06-2018 10:54 AM
can't change Tim Y General Discussion 39 04-23-2009 10:56 PM
things change, they ALWAYS DO Tim Y Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum 0 01-03-2009 02:45 PM
Paceline selection AAcoolguy General Discussion 44 07-27-2008 08:42 AM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:41 AM.