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Old 07-30-2009, 03:18 PM   #11
Ted Craven
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Originally Posted by reckless View Post
When I use a route paceline for a horse that's running today in a sprint, that horse (1) often gets a very high late pace rating, and (2) is often a big contender if one looks at the total pace + fr3 in the incremental match-up (which I always look at).

Have you guys noticed any similar read-outs with turn-back horses??

Also, do you guys think that these read-outs could be artificially high due to the equalized adjustments in the program?
I agree, I do think routes equalized back to sprints often (not always) tend to retain a late energy distribution flavour. Maybe sometimes the F3 energy is left too high, perhaps sometimes not, which is why I try to seek a couple of corollaries, and some insurance:

1. are there other, sprint lines which confirm the energy distribution extrapolated from the route. In this case (see RDSS E/L screenshot above) the 2 other sprints for the winner confirm it is the latest of all the runners, confirmed by the several top L/ep readouts for the same horse. Although the Total Enrgy is low, it is consistently distributed late (route or sprint), for whatever use can be made of those facts today.

2. Has it run well (or at least forwardly) in sprints before (ever?)

3. Longer odds are insurance against failure this time, and permit you to bet an entry along with another horse and still get decent net odds.

I would be leery of making such a horse a bet based only on the extracted route.

As I mentioned (and I think I am agreeing with FTL's comments), this horse was an unlikely candidate to win and might have been bet (at least by me) only out of a side bankroll or portfolio. But perhaps a timely and temporary E/L profile benefitted it (and some fairy dust...).

(Apologies for mixing RDSS examples in this Speculator Forum - it's the same info, and it's what I have handy. The E/L discussion transcends software used, though.)

Ted
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Last edited by Ted Craven; 07-30-2009 at 03:20 PM.
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Old 07-30-2009, 03:29 PM   #12
Tim Y
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Evaluations are based upon HOW THE HORSES HAD RUN IN THE EARLIER RACES ON THE CARD. Of course one would not NORMALLY use lines like that BUT the anti-speed bias that day altered all that.

WHAT IS HAPPENING TODAY is what tempers evaluations, not some theoretical "balanced" pace as is taught around here. The track changes and the gleaning of winning e/l numbers race to race tells you which way it is biased, IF ANY.

Last edited by Tim Y; 07-30-2009 at 03:40 PM.
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Old 07-30-2009, 03:45 PM   #13
Ted Craven
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WHAT IS HAPPENING TODAY is what tempers evaluations, not some theoretical "balanced" pace as is taught around here.
Can you please cite references to posts teaching "balanced" pace around here. We'll hunt those down and get rid of them...

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Old 07-30-2009, 03:52 PM   #14
reckless
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Thanks to both you guys for your replies.

I typically 'love' the turn-back horse but I also need more than a single factor to play such a steed as you pointed out Ted.

This is what makes RDSS -- or Spec or Val or even the older raw velocity programs of Sartin Past -- such outstanding tools. You can use a reading or corollary to play horses with confidence that simply might not muster up in conventional handicapping circles.

Plus, a single 20- or 30-1 winner makes up for many of those that might come up short and lose, heaven forbid.

I also think some racetracks are more kind to the turn-back horse. And, as you, Tim, have pointed out countless times, if you know your track and its' idiosyncrasies, and you know the type of demands that such a track requires, you're way ahead of the crowd by many lengths.

And when there is a deviation to the norm, then it is almost a license to steal by looking at those horses that are below the radar, so to speak.
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