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Old 01-29-2014, 09:15 PM   #1
Bill Lyster
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Another paceless race - IMHO

This race is from last Sunday at Santa Anita. Excuse my pencil scratches on the attached. I disregarded the winner- I will explain as I go thru the entries - but I thought the race fit with The Hat's teachings on Matchup, especially for paceless races.

This is a race for 4 YO & up, claiming price 12,500 non winners of two LIFE

#1: Prior to its open maiden win the horse showed sustained running from 8th position in an 8 horse race. The 6 furlong time of that race is about 111.3 (in tenths); its maiden win in a route came via fractions of 112.4. In line 2 the horse ran in an optional claiming race for NW1x and was entered not to be claimed. In line 2 he ran in a race with internal fractions at least as fast as any previous sprint race, raced closer to the lead in that race and its extracted 6 furlong time from that race (110.4 - 0.4 +1/2 of 8 lengths at 6 furlong call) is 110.80.

You will see that no other horse in this race broke its maiden in allowance company, and that only the 4 horse race in a stake race, that being a Cal-bred stake. The connections of this horse thought enough of him to enter him in a Grade 2 stake immediately after its maiden win - he finished last.

Prior to its maiden win the horse started a race, but was pulled up and vanned off - usually a red flag at least for me. Less than a month later he ran 7f and closed resolutely. In its last race it pulled up and was vanned off again. Today, 36 days later, he won, repeating the good effort after the last vanning incident. I could not get by two van offs no matter how he ran thereafter. My bad.

Until this race, this horse had run against the best company of any horse in this field by quite a lot. (yeah, I know the horses don't know about class!!)

#2: last line, best time after its maiden race is 111.6. Had 2 chances after maiden to match maiden time and folded vs winners. Sustained horse, might be SP, but lost position at 2nd call in last w/o excuse. Out

#3: S type, best time 112.2. Really ugly and out.

#4: P or S/P, used last race, but note that except for maiden win 2 yrs ago, horse has rarely gained between stretch and finish, usually losing ground xcept once in a blue moon or so. Last line is probable pace of race at 22-45-57-109.6. This horse looks likely to inherit the lead off its 3-3-2 with 1.5 lengths of lead in last, but has never got the lead before the end of a race and is likely candidate to freak if it happens.

#5 S type; best times are 110.6 off last, preceeded by 111 maiden win. A contender that passes horses and makes up ground from a 21.6-44.4 paceline. Keep for now.

#6: EP off maiden win, could be E type, but time was 111.6. If running style stays the same he will either have to run early today and flame out, or be sustained and have to pass too many horses. We'll see.

#7: I tagged this horse as an E, but its 1/15, could not make lead at 22.2 in last two and faded badly. Out.

#8: E type. I thought last race made this horse a hidden early horse; was in a tandem with the 5, held well thru middle of race, then faded. Best time was 110.8 off last or 110.7 from line two. Note that maiden win came from open length lead with some fighting ability at 46.3, not the best 2nd fraction that could develop today. Even though it looks like off the last race the horse might lead this race, its only successful first call leads were 23-46. If that is all he can do today, he can't win. I kept him in the mix until it was clear that there were better horses.

#9: S type, has pretty much run from the back of every field its been in. Could run 110.8 off its last or 110.5 off the 7f race in line 4. Ran closer to the pace in last in a good time up until the stretch, while passing all but one horse. Contender.

#10: S type, with 112.2 mdn win. OUT.

#11: Another slow horse that might press but in slow times, OUT

This leaves me with:
#1: S - 110.8 off of 22-45-57.5-110 from positions 4-4-6
#4: P - 110.4 off of 22-45-57.0-109.3 from positions 3-3-2
#5: S - 110.6 off of 21.6-44.8-57.0-110.6 from positions 9-7-3-2
#9: S - 110.5 off of 21.8-44.6-57.6-110.2 from positions 9-7-7

I eliminated the 8 because best 2C was 46 and best stretch call was 58. The 4-7-8 were early but times were slow - eliminated, so for me this became a paceless race.

My picks were the 4 and 9, with maybe the 8 good for 2nd, but looking at who could run closest to the pace you would have to take the 1 and 4, assuming you could get by the vanned off twice business. As it turned out the 1 and 4 finished 1st, 4th, the 9 finished 2nd and the 8 finished 3rd.

The Hat also said that horses that had run against faster paces and were meeting slower paces today, might run closer to the lead in the slower paced race. I say this because the 9 ran 7-4-2 in its 23-45.8 last race vs 9-7-2 in its fastest race, so the Hat's voodoo might have made the running line for the 9 more like the 7-4-2. So upgrading this horse makes it a better closer than the 5 with a better final time.
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Old 01-30-2014, 07:46 AM   #2
Segwin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
#1: Prior to its open maiden win the horse showed sustained running from 8th position in an 8 horse race. its extracted 6 furlong time from that race (110.4 - 0.4 +1/2 of 8 lengths at 6 furlong call) is 110.80.
I'm not understanding the math Bill. Why 110.4 - 0.4.

Also why 1/2 of 8 lengths instead of just 8 lengths?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
#5 S type; best times are 110.6 off last, preceeded by 111 maiden win.
How are you arriving at these numbers Bill?



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Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
#10: S type, with 112.2 mdn win. OUT.
Another how did you arrive at this number?

Thanks again Bill for sharing.
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Old 01-30-2014, 08:26 AM   #3
DontSayDont
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Seg,

Both the #5 and #10 were coming out of 5.5 furlong races. To do a distance adjustment add 6.4 to their final times and then adjust for beaten lengths and you should get:

#5- 103.2 (5ths)= 103.40 now add 6.4 to the final time, = 109.80. Then adjust for beaten lengths, 4.25 *.2 = .85. Add that to the final time and you get 110.65.

#10- Final time 105.4 = 105.80. Add 6.4 seconds to adjust time to 6 furlongs = 112.20. He was the winner of the race, so no adjustment for beaten lengths.

I am not saying 6.4 is a correct adjustment number as someone might use 6.2 or 6.5 etc. But 6.4 will give you the numbers listed above.

Ray
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Old 01-30-2014, 09:43 AM   #4
Bill V.
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Negative drop and form

Hi Bill

Is a CL 12.5 the lowest level they run at Santa Anita ?.

There are serious form issues in this race.Is it the match up or just
one of the few unknown form horses in the race just outclassed the field ?
This was a wide open race. The favorite was 3.20/1 !


I set the pace of race EP at 45.3 These are my contenders and the result chart. The pace of race was just about right on.

Name:  POR.PNG
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Size:  55.0 KB

Name:  paceless.PNG
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Size:  204.3 KB




Thanks

Bill
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Old 01-30-2014, 10:31 AM   #5
Segwin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DontSayDont View Post
Seg,

Both the #5 and #10 were coming out of 5.5 furlong races. To do a distance adjustment add 6.4 to their final times and then adjust for beaten lengths and you should get:

#5- 103.2 (5ths)= 103.40 now add 6.4 to the final time, = 109.80. Then adjust for beaten lengths, 4.25 *.2 = .85. Add that to the final time and you get 110.65.

#10- Final time 105.4 = 105.80. Add 6.4 seconds to adjust time to 6 furlongs = 112.20. He was the winner of the race, so no adjustment for beaten lengths.

I am not saying 6.4 is a correct adjustment number as someone might use 6.2 or 6.5 etc. But 6.4 will give you the numbers listed above.

Ray
Thanks Ray.

Is there set times (or standard times) for furlongs on turf/dirt published somewhere?
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Old 01-30-2014, 12:24 PM   #6
DontSayDont
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Seg,

There are places were you can purchase "par times", but I am not going to recommend any. Andrew Beyer was the first to show how to build his par times in his book on speed ratings.

http://www.angelfire.com/la2/Louisia...artsBeyer.html

Check out the above address and go to the bottom of the page for the 1 turn and 2 turn Beyer charts.

Then there is page (92) in the Pace Line Manual that explains how to convert fractional times that may interest you.

Ray
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Old 01-30-2014, 12:58 PM   #7
Bill Lyster
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Claim levels

Bill:

That could be a hard one to answer. They have open claiming at 8,000 and 10,000, but who really knows the true level of a C 12,500 non winner of two lifetime is? There are some really hard knockers in the bottom level, with several life time wins under their belts that might bury the horses competing at what at first glance would appear to be a level a little higher than the bottom.

With limited data from SA in the last month I see straight C12.5 sprints with purses of $21k, vs 16k for the n2l types, $17k for C8.0 and $19k for C10.0 races, so if purse value means anything its possible that C12.5, N2L is about the bottom of the barrel. Heaven help any horse that clears N2L at C 12.5. They probably have to drop to straight C 8.0 to compete unless trainer has found the latest enhancement tool or they had some back class???

Regards,
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Old 01-30-2014, 01:19 PM   #8
Bill Lyster
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Bill:

Thanks for the chart. I was going to put it up a little later after, hopefully after some commentary.

I agreed with your pace set up pretty much and also the form issues. I could not see any of the early types holding up in this race, so I was pretty sure it was OTE. I put the race up because I am trying to find more paceless races or races that devolve into relatively paceless events to understand the internal dynamics in those types of races.

Notice that in the faster 7 furlong race that the one ran its positions were 8-8-5-5; in the 6.5 race prior to that it ran 8-8-5-2. It had never run against this slow of a projected pace, so its position "might" be expected to improve, similar to how the 4, 5 and 9 did when compared to their positioning in faster races and races at or near today's pace. I am not saying that its a universal fact that all would run closer to the lead, but its a probable assumption. But when you look at the running styles of the power races run by each horse there appeared to be only two who had run in mid pack, so they would be closest to the lead and would challenge the other horses to go by them using perhaps more energy to gain both positions and lengths than they were capable of, or had shown in the past.

If you looked at the race from a back class POV the 1 was a standout. But like I said, its rare to see a horse with two "van offs" even though the horse ran well next out! I guess I could have downgraded the van off if I noted the return in less than 30 days. Really conflicting info here. If you came down on the right side of things this could have been a profitable race.

But I think I learned something from this race and it goes in the memory bank for future use (I hope). I need lots more learning experiences, phew!! Boy-howdy!!
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Old 01-30-2014, 01:25 PM   #9
Bill Lyster
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Ray,

Thanks for doing the leg work on how to extract. I was formulating an answer, but was not finding the right words or quote to reference.
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Old 01-30-2014, 04:31 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DontSayDont View Post
Seg,

There are places were you can purchase "par times", but I am not going to recommend any. Andrew Beyer was the first to show how to build his par times in his book on speed ratings.

http://www.angelfire.com/la2/Louisia...artsBeyer.html

Check out the above address and go to the bottom of the page for the 1 turn and 2 turn Beyer charts.

Then there is page (92) in the Pace Line Manual that explains how to convert fractional times that may interest you.

Ray
Thanks again Ray for the help.
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