Brohamer Decision Model

[CaptDon100]

The start of this post, for me was to start some type of model. I now keep
1. Wager decision Form
2. Track Profile
3. Hadicap Model
I do it all in Excel, Its a lot of work and I only can do 1 track.
I find it helpful most of the time, There are always times were the number just don't work out. That's ok. Its part of the game.
I saw this post added and looked back on it and see how far I have come since this 1st post. WOW.

[CaptDon100]

Sample of Wager form

[CEW]

Hi Guys...

Record keeping is key - let it guide your handicapping. Find what works and dedicate yourself to it.

My own opinion on why Howard said the old way of modeling is (was) no longer valid is this (opinion only !): his main focus changed over the years from teaching handicapping to teaching money making. There is a big difference of course. So when he got into the Bottom Line/Betting Line programs, where they feature the Hide concept and price oriented selection process, the user is no longer modeling velocity. The focus became the Wagering Decision Form, essentially modeling money making. I personally think Howard was trying to speed up the process of getting people to make money and not get hung up on the length of time it takes to get over the learning curve of the Methodology.

Anything can be modeled, so at least in the learning stage, probably best to zero in on one track and stay with it till the patterns emerge from your records. Every track and surface has some pattern to be found.

Best to all ! Chuck

[mowens33]

I thought maybe a few members may be interested in the spread sheet I put together using Ted’s Model. I added a Brohamer Model based off the adjusted POH from the RDSS2 standard down load.
It has 3 different tabs one for sprints and 1 for routs and a sample win Model for Woodbine at 8.5F.
It’s new so there may be some bugs!
Mike

[Bill V.]

It looks very good Mike

Good skill with its readouts .
I applaud you for putting in so much work setting it up to your taste and needs.
Thank you for sharing this with the group.

Bill

[DaveEdwards]

This leads me onto the point that I wanted to raise about the Brohamer Model. It is a reflection of where winners are coming from in relation to the individual's own handicapping style. This is where I think there could be some limitations by keeping one overall model.

In the words of Jim Bradshaw the Match-Up supersedes everything. Not only that you'll notice I'm sure the outstanding chapter on the negative class drop in MPH. When applying these principles it is possible to have a horse as one of the contenders that wins that has mediocre numbers in the model of the race due to the fact that a negative class dropper and multiple earlies were included, but had no real chance of winning. But taking them out of the model wouldn't leave enough runners to form a model.

Sorry, I'm rambling a bit now, but getting to my point. My plan this summer is to keep multiple models, where possible for Finger Lakes. There is a long season, dirt only and not too many distances. I'm going to keep different models for different Match-Up scenarios and track condition. This may prove difficult at times, but hopefully not insurmountable. I'll discuss my findings at the end of the season.

I'm not claiming to be an expert in the use of the model by any means, but I think there is scope for further dividing the overall model that may possibly provide further insights into the advantages some horse might have in certain situations.

If anyone has done similar I'd be delighted to hear how things went.

..............................................................................................

Betfair dropped FL last year because of an issue with tvg & whoever had the rights for FL stream. This is now sorted & FL is back on the menu.

I've started this again from yesterday.

If anyone has done similar or has any thoughts on this I'd love to hear them!

[Lt1]

FL is a trk I play on a consistent basis. I maintain only 1 model but do note when the trk is off. I use to keep a separate model for off trks but found that most of the trks I play don't vary that much. When I make my betting decision I will move a horse down based on negative factors despite of its BL/BL ranking. I works well for me since one mytop2 win 56%, top 3 73% and top4 85% after moves. Good luck with your project.
Tim

[mowens33]

Dave, Tim, I am looking at different tracks to play (mainly tracks with a good rebate from my ADW) all the time and I am curious as to why you gentlemen chose Finger Lakes as one of main tracks?

Thanks, Mike

[DaveEdwards]

Thanks Tim.

Mike,
I like FL for a number of reasons:
As Bert Mayne alluded to in one of the Audios, his feeling was that many people treat FL as a "gamble". I don't mean to be patronising now as everyone pays their money & takes their choice, but I'm of the opinion that there is a certain lack of sophistication in terms of some of the money in the FL pools. R4 yesterday was a perfect example. Anyone reading this forum could have seen that the two earlies were going to cut each others throats, but they went off the 1st & 2nd favourites.

Secondly for me, being in the UK it fits in with my free time in the evenings. I have a soft spot for Penn National as it happens, but going into work after 3 hours sleep doesn't do it for me & I have tried!

Thirdly, you got to love the commentator!

Fourthly, as there are relatively few distances and only one surface it makes data collation that bit easier.

[DocSartinLearner]

a word to mowens33 or to ANY MEMBER at P & C
from posting p=100579#post100579 08-28-2014, 09:21 PM post count #14
or t=9742&Page=2:

I tried to save the File 'RDSS2 Model Spread Sheet - Brohamer Model. xlsx (87.2 KB, 169 views) to my Documents Downloads folder and I got on the screen:

Save As
The converter failed to save the file.

how to save it to Microsoft Office Excel 2007?
how to install it FREE.

Thanks.

DSL