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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 03-30-2018, 05:28 PM   #1
Mr.Pagine
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Florida Derby Time

The fun starts now.

I really like AUDIBLE in this spot.

Happy Punting!

Jon
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Old 03-31-2018, 01:17 PM   #2
lone speed
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One more month till Kentucky Derby!!!!

MrPagine

Thanks for your analysis

Mendelssohn just ran a huge race in the UAE Derby- he won by 18++ open lengths...

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I have narrowed my contenders to Audible, Catholic Boy and Mississippi...

Audible is the obvious choice with his huge sustained run in the last race and Todd Pletcher is again in the Derby Hunt.

Mississippi ran second to Noble Indy in his 2nd pace line back who went on to win the Louisiana Derby. Today's is Mississippi's 3rd route off the layoff....

Catholic Boy has the best 2nd fraction move of these contenders...

Good skills
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Old 03-31-2018, 05:29 PM   #3
raceman5
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Florida Derby.

In looking at the race the FPLR belongs to the 9 46.4-111.0

The only other horse who has run successfully behind these fractions are the 8 and 5. Been reading the hat file on the FPLR. So Richey or anyone else who is more versed in this technique give a shout out.

Bob
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Old 03-31-2018, 06:21 PM   #4
Mitch44
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I'll go 8-4-1-6


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Old 03-31-2018, 06:27 PM   #5
mick
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I keep returning to this screen. They're 3YOs, so who knows? But ...
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Old 03-31-2018, 06:29 PM   #6
Bill V.
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Fla

Holly came from Miami Fla.

I will go with the 6 and 9




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Old 03-31-2018, 06:34 PM   #7
lostandwon
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Raceman, not to speak for anybody but…I agree with you about the FPLR. A horse who ran well &/or up close in the FPLR race should get a look.

However, in this example, the 9 & 5 were in a tandem which was 9’s last race (fplr) in an OC race. 5 then went on to race in the Fountain G2 and failed miserably. That race was a tandem with the 4 & 1.

With all that said, I’m not sure where that leaves the 9…But I do think the 8 is a solid fave.

I see the 1 & 4 up front with plenty of company up on the pace. The 8 may well be the one to win. I see it going OTE which he is and likes to be up close if he doesn’t get caught up in the E. However, 9/5 is a pass.

I wish the ML on the 6 was higher. He’s ran 9F and has ran in Graded company. I may look at a shot on the 6 letting the others run up front and coming a little late.

Just looked at live odds. 2 MTP and 8 is 8/5 & 6 is 2/1…Hard Pass…
Show bets on the 99/1’s? Nah just kiddin
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Old 03-31-2018, 07:06 PM   #8
mick
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Corollary of Murphy's Law

It's a corollary of Murphy's Law that if you bet a horse to Win and Place, he'll run third.
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Old 03-31-2018, 07:26 PM   #9
Mitch44
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If you think this race was impressive check out the UAE Derby post.


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Old 04-01-2018, 11:45 AM   #10
Bill V.
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Chart

Congrats to the connections of Audible

You have a real good looking contender for the Kentucky Derby

also a shout out to the place horse #7
Lightly raced and a big time 3rd fraction

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