Tampa Bay 2-13-14 - Pace and Cap

Jeebs · 02-13-2014, 10:06 AM

Anyone playing today? I'll be posting thoughts/selections during the afternoon.

Bill V. · 02-13-2014, 10:28 AM

I look forward to seeing what you come up with

Bill

Jeebs · 02-13-2014, 11:07 AM

Looks like we are off the turf at Tampa today. Track Condition is... "GOOOOOOOD"...

Jeebs · 02-13-2014, 12:15 PM

We start off with one helluva slobberknocker (and I say that loosely): an $8k maiden claimer for fillies and mares who combined to lose by 123 lengths in their last starts. Needless to say, when we use the guidelines from PMTR, there is no fulcrum pace of race to go by. By definition, this is a paceless parade.

#3 Chulini is the dominant horse in Adjusted SR, is also the type of short-priced favorite that I will let beat me all day. As a chronic "Sustained" runner with an 0-for-17 record while consistently losing at short prices, we should either look elsewhere, or nowhere at all.

Let's look at the lines and EPR's...

#1 Be A Charmer ran a (+) last start at long odds, with a 79.5 EPR. Her EPR in 2 of her other 3 races are within a point of her last race EPR. Rates a potential pace threat in here. Not inspiring are her LPR ratings which nosedive as the race gets longer. I can't see this getting better on a stretchout, but nevertheless, we use Line 1 (last start, albeit wrong distance, but a (+) race so I won't penalize) and take a "wait and see" approach.

#2 Teresa's Kim gets no line: No start in 227 days and 0-for-21 to boot. Hard to imagine that time off would improve her ability.

#3 Chulini is the horse that we talked about at the onset. Stretches out to two turns for the first time today. She has run (-) races in two of her last three at shorter in this low claiming condition. I can't see how her late kick gets magnified by the stretchout. Nonetheless, Line 2 is "closest to the pin" so to speak when it comes to distance difference, so we will use that + race in rating the contenders.

#4 She's From Dixie is an instatoss: No line.

#5 Pia's Promise is the "Fighter" in this race. Her (+) race came in Line 2, 19 days ago. Her Line 1 from 11 days ago is a standard (-) race. I won't compromise and will assign no line.

#6 Janny's Girl takes a big drop in company, facing much weaker than her Tampa debut a week ago today. However, her form is littered with (-) races at all distances with a + race at 6.5 furlongs several back. No line.

#7 Alaskan Dawn looks like a straightforward (-) off recent races, so no line.

Only the #1 and #3 have rated lines here. If I take the BL/BL at face value with the non-contenders taken out, the #3 blows the #1 away.

Bottom Line: No value in this race = no bet.

Segwin · 02-13-2014, 12:29 PM

I typically play TAM on Thursday and Friday but just doing some research with RDSS for today and tomorrow.

Good skill/luck!

Jeebs · 02-13-2014, 12:36 PM

The only 2 horses that could be rated run 1-2 and I save $$ because there was no value to be had.

Jeebs · 02-13-2014, 01:01 PM

No Line: 3-5-7

#1 is our fulcrum horse (46.7 half), using Line 1
#2 has not run to the fulcrum, but Line 1 was his first start on dirt and it was a win. Not penalizing for doing what he is supposed to do. Using Line 1.
#4 is a case of wrong distance, but a win nonetheless. The lone (-) race was also wrong distance. Taking the recent + effort and using Line 1
#6 broke the maiden in a big way in Line 2. Line 1 is wrong surface. Use Line 2

When matching EPR, I tossed 2 and dutched 1-4-6. Place bet on 6.

Jeebs · 02-13-2014, 01:07 PM

I guess you could have forgiven #5's last two starts, as they were against a much faster pace than today's fulcrum. However, hard for me to select another line with much confidence as the rest of the races are on Poly and the GP race was technically a (-) form race, Z pattern and all.

As Ted says, trust our tools...

Jeebs · 02-13-2014, 01:28 PM

Another slobberknocker and again, no fulcrum.

No Line: 3-6-8. #7 is a FTS.

#1: + race for Line 1, middle move from C1 to C2. Using.
#2: (+) race for Line 1 by virtue of the middle move with 2 of the leader at C2. Using.
#4: Lone E in the race. Didn't lead last out, but ran against a fast pace. EPR also dominant. Using Line 1.

Betting the #4 solo across the board. I think this one shakes loose and doesn't get caught.

Jeebs · 02-13-2014, 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeebs

Another slobberknocker and again, no fulcrum.

No Line: 3-6-8. #7 is a FTS.

#1: + race for Line 1, middle move from C1 to C2. Using.
#2: (+) race for Line 1 by virtue of the middle move with 2 of the leader at C2. Using.
#4: Lone E in the race. Didn't lead last out, but ran against a fast pace. EPR also dominant. Using Line 1.

Betting the #4 solo across the board. I think this one shakes loose and doesn't get caught.

Gotta love it when the race goes according to your script

. 6/5 was a little generous IMO.

02-13-2014, 01:28 PM	#9
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	Race 3 Another slobberknocker and again, no fulcrum. No Line: 3-6-8. #7 is a FTS. #1: + race for Line 1, middle move from C1 to C2. Using. #2: (+) race for Line 1 by virtue of the middle move with 2 of the leader at C2. Using. #4: Lone E in the race. Didn't lead last out, but ran against a fast pace. EPR also dominant. Using Line 1. Betting the #4 solo across the board. I think this one shakes loose and doesn't get caught.

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02-13-2014, 10:06 AM	#1
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	Tampa Bay 2-13-14 Anyone playing today? I'll be posting thoughts/selections during the afternoon.

02-13-2014, 10:28 AM	#2
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	good skill I look forward to seeing what you come up with Bill

02-13-2014, 11:07 AM	#3
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	Looks like we are off the turf at Tampa today. Track Condition is... "GOOOOOOOD"...

02-13-2014, 12:15 PM	#4
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	Race 1 We start off with one helluva slobberknocker (and I say that loosely): an $8k maiden claimer for fillies and mares who combined to lose by 123 lengths in their last starts. Needless to say, when we use the guidelines from PMTR, there is no fulcrum pace of race to go by. By definition, this is a paceless parade. #3 Chulini is the dominant horse in Adjusted SR, is also the type of short-priced favorite that I will let beat me all day. As a chronic "Sustained" runner with an 0-for-17 record while consistently losing at short prices, we should either look elsewhere, or nowhere at all. Let's look at the lines and EPR's... #1 Be A Charmer ran a (+) last start at long odds, with a 79.5 EPR. Her EPR in 2 of her other 3 races are within a point of her last race EPR. Rates a potential pace threat in here. Not inspiring are her LPR ratings which nosedive as the race gets longer. I can't see this getting better on a stretchout, but nevertheless, we use Line 1 (last start, albeit wrong distance, but a (+) race so I won't penalize) and take a "wait and see" approach. #2 Teresa's Kim gets no line: No start in 227 days and 0-for-21 to boot. Hard to imagine that time off would improve her ability. #3 Chulini is the horse that we talked about at the onset. Stretches out to two turns for the first time today. She has run (-) races in two of her last three at shorter in this low claiming condition. I can't see how her late kick gets magnified by the stretchout. Nonetheless, Line 2 is "closest to the pin" so to speak when it comes to distance difference, so we will use that + race in rating the contenders. #4 She's From Dixie is an instatoss: No line. #5 Pia's Promise is the "Fighter" in this race. Her (+) race came in Line 2, 19 days ago. Her Line 1 from 11 days ago is a standard (-) race. I won't compromise and will assign no line. #6 Janny's Girl takes a big drop in company, facing much weaker than her Tampa debut a week ago today. However, her form is littered with (-) races at all distances with a + race at 6.5 furlongs several back. No line. #7 Alaskan Dawn looks like a straightforward (-) off recent races, so no line. Only the #1 and #3 have rated lines here. If I take the BL/BL at face value with the non-contenders taken out, the #3 blows the #1 away. Bottom Line: No value in this race = no bet.

02-13-2014, 12:29 PM	#5
Segwin Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Cleveland, Ohio Posts: 624	I typically play TAM on Thursday and Friday but just doing some research with RDSS for today and tomorrow. Good skill/luck! __________________ Terry

02-13-2014, 12:36 PM	#6
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	The only 2 horses that could be rated run 1-2 and I save $$ because there was no value to be had.

02-13-2014, 01:01 PM	#7
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	Race 2 No Line: 3-5-7 #1 is our fulcrum horse (46.7 half), using Line 1 #2 has not run to the fulcrum, but Line 1 was his first start on dirt and it was a win. Not penalizing for doing what he is supposed to do. Using Line 1. #4 is a case of wrong distance, but a win nonetheless. The lone (-) race was also wrong distance. Taking the recent + effort and using Line 1 #6 broke the maiden in a big way in Line 2. Line 1 is wrong surface. Use Line 2 When matching EPR, I tossed 2 and dutched 1-4-6. Place bet on 6.

02-13-2014, 01:07 PM	#8
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	I guess you could have forgiven #5's last two starts, as they were against a much faster pace than today's fulcrum. However, hard for me to select another line with much confidence as the rest of the races are on Poly and the GP race was technically a (-) form race, Z pattern and all. As Ted says, trust our tools...