Friday 9/23 - Belmont Turf Route- TM108 Race Class

[RichieP]

Here is the 6th from Belmont this Friday. It is a turf route stakes race with a full field showing. PLEASE double check for scratches etc (maybe someone can update this come raceday )

Bext of luck and good matching!

[RichieP]

,.,

[RichieP]

...

[Bill Lyster]

Before scratches:

The 4 is early needing open lengths; the 5 has run as an early fighter to the 6 furlong marked and chucked in it in the last two. line 10 for the 4 shows a pace of 23.3-46.6-111.4 with a fade thereafter. With the 5 fighting or pressing my pace is 46.8-111.6and the 4 and 5 cancel each other out.

RACE GOES OTE:

This would leave:
2- S FROM LAST OR NEXT TO IT,
3- EP THAT CAN RUN FROM 2ND-3RD
7- A SP TYPE WHO HAS WON THE HIGHEST PURSE RACE $100K- BUT LAST RACE WAS 69 DAYS AGO AND HORSE HAS NEVER WON OFF SUCH A LAYOFF;
8- SP THAT RUNS FROM 4TH OR 5TH
9- S FROM WAAYYYY BACK
10- P FROM 4TH-5TH

The 2 runs from too far back. The 7 finishes best from 5th or 6th, but I think the layoff will take him out of win contention for me. I will play the 7 to place.

3 is too slow for this group.

The top horse for me is the 8 and for a price I like the 9 who passes horses and gains lengths most of the time. Box the 7-8-9 with the 15/1 #9 horse.

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Before scratches:

The 4 is early needing open lengths; the 5 has run as an early fighter to the 6 furlong marked and chucked in it in the last two. line 10 for the 4 shows a pace of 23.3-46.6-111.4 with a fade thereafter. With the 5 fighting or pressing my pace is 46.8-111.6and the 4 and 5 cancel each other out.

RACE GOES OTE:

This would leave:
2- S FROM LAST OR NEXT TO IT,
3- EP THAT CAN RUN FROM 2ND-3RD
7- A SP TYPE WHO HAS WON THE HIGHEST PURSE RACE $100K- BUT LAST RACE WAS 69 DAYS AGO AND HORSE HAS NEVER WON OFF SUCH A LAYOFF;
8- SP THAT RUNS FROM 4TH OR 5TH
9- S FROM WAAYYYY BACK
10- P FROM 4TH-5TH

The 2 runs from too far back. The 7 finishes best from 5th or 6th, but I think the layoff will take him out of win contention for me. I will play the 7 to place.

3 is too slow for this group. (see change of opinion below)

The top horse for me is the 8 and for a price I like the 9 who passes horses and gains lengths most of the time. Box the 7-8-9 with the 15/1 #9 horse.

The scratch of the 4 leaves the 5 on the lead if he wants it. And the scratch of the 7 removes a question mark from previous analysis. For me the next most logical horse on or near lead would be the 3 who has run close to leads near the original pace a held pretty well. The 5 has not won while fighting for the lead and can probably lead in a slower time then either recent efforts. Like the fact that this one fights but his win came as a presser in a time that would not be competitive with this group (142.9)

I looked further at 3 after scratches. Horse won 100K claimer and moved into graded company and hit board. Tandem with 8 in that Grade 2 and beat 8 handily, but 8 looked to have had trouble in last as it ran in different positions from normal. The 3 and 8 were tandem in their races 78 days ago where 8 beat 3 by about 3/4 length. I would give the 3 a positional edge, but just barely based on their best races vs each other.

The 9 still intrigues because of consistent positions gained and lengths made up between 2nd call and stretch in most recent races.

Box 3x8x9, with win bets on best odds and probably place bets on 9 if odds stay above 6/1.


That's alllllll folks,


Bill

[raceman5]

i like 8-3-2 in a exacta box. and also bet the 2 highest odds horses to win, who knows maybe all 3 if the odds warrant it.


Bob

[PeteC]

I'm looking for an OTE win by either the 8 or the 9.

[gl45]

#6 w/p

[RichieP]

Here is the result chart of the race and Bill L gives accurate analysis of how the race ran especially early on

Thanks everyone for jumping in and participating

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6Mhj...eature=related